Risk Assessment for Emergency Shelter Planning
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1 Risk Assessment for Emergency Shelter Planning UN-Habitat, IFRC, ProVention Consortium Global Risk Identification Program (GRIP) - Global Emergency Shelter Cluster -
2 Information needed for Pre-Disaster Planning How many killed people are expected? How many injured people are expected? How many hospital beds are available? How many displaced people are expected? What are the most affected areas? Where are the safer areas? How many shelter-buildings are available?
3 Simple Damage Estimation Software RADIUS Tool CD-ROM including TOOLS and RADIUS city reports. Distributed for FREE to city administrators of cities worldwide by the UN and RADIUS institutes.
4 Software Purposes To facilitate preliminary estimation of earthquake damage To be used by city administrators and general public, not for research purposes To assist in decision making To raise awareness of earthquake risk
5 Software Characteristics Goal: To make it as useful and accessible as possible Widely available platform (runs on MS-Excel) Simple, user-friendly Help Function/User Instructions are included Narrated Demonstration Video is included NOT a GIS(Geographic Information System) type of program A GIS Sample is added for comparison (GIS is a very useful risk-assessment tool)
6 Input Data Program uses commonly available city information Shape of target region (entered as a grid) Population and its distribution Building Inventory and its distribution Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions) Lifelines information Choice of Scenario Earthquake and its parameters
7 Outputs Ground Shaking Distribution (PGA or MMI Intensity) Building damage Lifelines damage Human Impact (number of deaths and injuries) Summary Tables and Thematic Maps showing the results
8 Applications Pre-Disaster Phase Shelter planning Quantity Location Legal and institutional agreements Responsibilities at all levels Inter-city agreements Revision of existing contingency plans Simulation exercises
9 Immediately after the disaster Very fast, accurate assessment of actual damages Total physical and human impact Most affected areas Identification of safe areas Shelter buildings that remain available Response facilities still working (hospitals, fire stations, police stations) Accessibility conditions
10 Immediately after the disaster Assessment of response capabilities Setting up response priorities Optimization of response resources Refinement of response strategy Monitoring of response implementation Coordination and updating of response process
11 Post-disaster phase Preparation of recovery scenarios to adjust shelter operations Preparation of recommendations for recovery planning Control for no risk re-creation Better coordination with early recovery activities Design of exit strategies
12 Methodology Development Pilot applications Mozambique, Mexico, Nepal Training modules Training for trainers Self-teaching materials Large-scale implementation strategy Recommendations
13 Methodology Development In parallel Develop a new tool for floods risk Urban areas Existing tool Rural areas New tool Timeline First phase 3 Pilot applications July 2009 Training modules December 2009 New tool for Flood Risk August 2009 Second phase Pilot applications of new tool December 2010
14 Long-term Implementation strategy Users Local emergency response organizations Local Red Cross International organizations Time requirements Training and installation: 2-3 weeks Pre-Disaster Shelter plan: 6 months Geographic scope High-risk Low-capacity countries Medium and large cities (5/country)
15 Risk Mapping for Strategic Planning of Shelter Response in Tijuana, Baja California, México Antonio Rosquillas and Luis Moreno Municipio de Tijuana H. AYUNTAMIENTO TIJUANA B.C. June 2009 CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN CIENTÍFICA Y DE EDUCACIÓN SUPERIOR DE ENSENADA.
16 Area of Study: Tijuana Urban Area
17 Components of EQ damage estimation epicenter rock Local soil conditions Propagation-Attenuation Law hypocenter
18 Plausible events DELEGATIONS AND EPICENTRAL LOCATIONS (6) OF EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS, MAGNITUDE= 6.5 MUNICIPIO DE TIJUANA B.C.
19 Mesh Generation (using aerial photos) SAN ANTONIO BUENOS (SAB) DELEGATION ORTOFOTO MESH 500X500 meters GENERAL MESH
20 Soil Types Distribution in Tijuana
21 Soil Types Distribution SUPERPOSITION OF MESH AND SOIL TYPES (TOPOGRAPHY INCLUDED)
22 Population Distribution TYPE 0 TYPE 2 TYPE 1 TYPE 3 MESH WEIGHT BY POPULATION DENSITY using aerial photo
23 Building Types Distribution (SAB)
24 Building Distribution for SAB Delegation Area ID Area RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4 EDU1 EDU2 MED1 MED2 COM IND Sum Name (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 SAB
25 Scenario Earthquake EQ6
26 MMI Intensity Distribution d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d c c c c d d d d d d d c c c c c c c c c c d d c c c c c c c c c c c c d d d c c c c c c c c c c c c d d c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c a a c c c c c c c c c c a a a c c c c c c c c c c a a a a c c c c c c c c c c c a a c c c c c c c c c c c c a c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c a a c c c c c c c c c c c c c a b c c c c c c c c c c b b b b b b b b b b b b b b RADIUS calculates PGA and then Mercalli Modified Intensities (MMI)
27 Building Damage Estimation (SAB) c c c c c c c c c c c d c c c b d d c c c b c c c c c c b a b c a c c c b c c c c c b a a a c c c c b c c d c b c b a a c c c b b c c c d c b a c b b b c c a a c c d d c b a a b c b c b a a b c b c b c b a a b a b a a a a a b c a b b a a a a a a a a a a b a a a a a a a a a a b b a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a b a a a a a a a a a a a a b b a a a b a a a a a a b a b b b a a a a b b a a a b b b b b a a a a a b b b b a a b a a b a a a a a a a a a a a a b b a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a b A a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a Color Automatic Range Manual Range ID From To From To a b c d
28 Shelter Needs Results Number of people needing shelter for each of the six scenario earthquakes SAB CEN CTO CCO CVE LME PRE OTA PLA TAB Total EQ1 10,000 4,622 8,917 3,282 1,226 5,839 7,276 4,497 6,372 6,246 58,277 EQ2 12,392 4,593 6,853 3,661 3,184 7,012 8,576 3,341 5,335 9,503 64,449 EQ3 3,025 2,792 1,942 2,400 1,360 2,751 8,457 1, ,648 28,588 EQ4 12,465 10,140 11,085 6,676 1,703 9,942 15,133 7,984 6,019 10,169 91,316 EQ5 4,986 4,504 2,900 4,289 2,581 5,317 16,561 1,993 1,456 6,338 50,925 EQ6 6,411 6,063 5,761 3,581 1,032 4,979 8,437 3,985 3,216 4,979 48,444
29 Damage to lifelines
30 SHELTERS PLANNING - GENERAL CRITERIA -
31 TEMPORAL SHELTERS IN MEXICO The National Defense Ministry is the first responsible office Schools are the first option for shelter For long-term dwelling rehabilitation, the arrangement of organized camps has been foreseen In Mexico, there is not any experience of temporal shelter provision in case of an earthquake.
32 Shelter deployment criteria Based on the damage scenario, schools located in areas of intensity less than VII, were chosen to be used. An average of 300 sheltered persons per school has been considered The open spaces (sport fields and parks bigger than 1000 m²) in the areas with intensity VII and up In the organized camps, local building materials will be used first and, if necessary, tents and camping houses
33 MMI Intensities for deployment criteria (EQ4)
34 Institutional and legal frameworks The National Defense Ministry will apply the Plan DNIII created for natural disasters The local authority will use Project Sphere (IFRC) criteria for minimum requirements The local government, with the assistance of State and Federal governments, will provide the necessary supplies to all shelters Areas for supply centers and for foreign humanitarians teams are also identified
35 COORDINATION Participants: Municipality State Government Federal Government National Defense Ministry. Marine Ministry Red Cross Volunteer Associations International Humanitarian Institutions and other countries
36 MORELOS PARK (open space) Area = m² Shelter for 1000 people (42m2/person)
37 ALAMAR RIVER (open space) Area = 924,638 m² Shelter for 20,000 people (risky in raining season)
38 GOLF COURSE (open space) Area = 429,203 m² Shelter for 10,000 people (private)
39 AIRPORT (open space) Area = 593,234 m² External supplies reception
40 SPORT FIELDS Area = 358,115 m² Shelter for foreign teams (near airport)
41 RACE TRACK Area = 362,974 m² Shelter for 7,500 people (private)
42 MILITARY FIELD Area = 1,135,277 m² Supplies
43 Shelter plan accessibility
44 Simulation exercise (Sept. 18, 2009)
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