Successes, failures, lessons learnt and challenges

Transcription

1 Successes, failures, lessons learnt and challenges Claudio Feijóo Madrid Technical University, Spain Access the presentation at: es.academia.edu/claudiofeijoo Workshop The economics of media and content industries 1 st MCI Workshop, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) Seville, May

2 Overview Dilbert 2010 United Features Syndicate, Inc (Vertical) Market segments: Mobile music Mobile television / Mobile video Mobile gaming Others: mobile media / m-books / education /... (Horizontal) Common issues: Devices Apps and browsers Business models and disintermediation /... Some conclusions Policy implications

3 Context (1/2) The emergence of the mobile wireless web Wireless-mobile technology is a major driver of economic value in the world economy (EU: 250bn or 2-3% of GDP and rising) In /4 of the planet's population have use of a mobile handset. Creative content, media and Internet industries go mobile User empowerment effect of mobile social computing Disruptive effect of new technologies / new paradigms The policy twist: What can be done to increase the probability that the next mobile innovators happen in Europe?

4 Context (2/2) Drivers : available and affordable mobile broadband connectivity and smart devices Source: own elaboration from data of ABI Research, EC, emarketer, EITO, Eurostat, ITU, Juniper Research, Informa Telecoms & Media and Netsize Twitter: 180% growth Jan 2010 Jan 2011 to 26 million users (source: Twitter)

5 Mobile music: from ringtones to full tracks on the cloud Source: Netsize (2009, 2010) Up to 2005: ringtones From 2005: full tracks (the music store concept, Rhapsody) From 2008: streaming (Spotify) From 2011: cloud (Amazon, Google,...) Ringtones now in crisis Full tracks expected to be bigger than ringtones in a future-linear way of thinking, never happened Still today we mainly use side-loading (i.e. itunes) Digital music has become mobile on its own floating between PCs, portable players, home multimedia, video game consoles, car stereo, the cloud (Fitchard,2011), consumers forced to use clunky applications for DRM-free tracks... room for the smartphone? 360º music management? Fixed-mobile platform convergence? Cloud / streaming impact on network performance? Investments, network neutrality and spectrum management Data roaming

6 Mobile TV: expectations never fulfilled (1/2) Source: own elaboration from data of Verkasalo (2008), De Moor (2008), De Vos (2008), Westlund (2007), Pliq (2007) Still early for mobile 2.0 apps Adoption gap in mobile television The success of voice and sms

7 Mobile TV: expectations never fulfilled (2/2) Source: CMT (2011) Mobile TV in Spain Standardisation support since 2007 (DVB-H), currently in a limbo Commercial launches using major events (olympics, football) Some modest success stories: Japan and Korea Notorious failures (BBC 2008) and limited response from EU markets ( 5 million users) Impasse situation with divergent technological options: broadcasting vs mobile comms Lack of perceived value and usefulness from users Unexpected behaviour of users: at home, after prime-time, long time view,... Social mobile video? Conflicts between rightholders, broadcasters, video portals and mobile op Free-to-air (advertising-based)? Video streaming impact on network performance (traffic x70 until 2018)? Investments, network neutrality and spectrum management Data roaming Double regulation (audiovisual media and telecomms)

8 Mobile gaming: which platform? (1/2) Platform Main constituents Main strategies Main gate-keeping roles Apple iphone-ipod-ipad + OS X Closed model with tight control over Development environment App Store hardware, software and applications Provisioning / brokerage itunes Charging and billing SDK Nokia Nokia devices Increasingly open model with control of Development environment Ovi software and hardware developemnt Provisioning / brokerage Symbian / SDK Google Nexus One + other devices Open model with control of software Development environment Android marketplace development Profile / identity / context Android / SDK Provisioning / brokerage RIM Blackberry Closed model with tight control over Development environment Blackberry Store hardware, software and applications Provisioning / brokerage RIM / SDK Charging and billing Microsoft Windows Marketplace Windows Mobile / SDK Closed model with tight control over software development Linux Linux for mobile Open model with loose control over software development Sun J2ME Relatively open model with control over software development Qualcomm BREW Closed model with control over software development Mobile Mobile networks Closed model with control over operators in Portals hardware and networks general Handsets subsidising Development environment Development environment Development environment Development environment Provisioning / brokerage Profile / identity / context Charging and billing 8

9 Mobile gaming: which platform? (2/2) Market segment 2007 (B ) 2008 (B ) 2013 (B ) TV advertising Internet advertising Recorded music Video games (total) Console games Online games Mobile gaming Source: own compilation of industry data Before 2002 games embedded in the handset Up to 2007: game portals Dramatic change in 2007 with first wave of smartphones From 2008, no longer it is a delayed-intime poor brother of console and pc games, but a distinct and exciting experience and a new wide ecosystem (Angry Birds) Wide demographics, ubiquity, personalisation, social and context-aware Results from competition between platforms? Market structure? Innovators and mobile industry in Europe, but trailing behind in platforms Niche markets serious games Privacy (geo data) Consumer protection: content rating, childhood protection Innovations in business models: in-apps revenues On-line gaming impact on network performance? Investments, network neutrality and spectrum management Data roaming

10 The (hugely important) role of devices and their dynamics

11 Different from web? Forecasts Market segment 2007 (B ) 2008 (B ) (B ) Mobile ad (text pictures) 1 2 Mobile ad (web based inc. search) 3,9 5,8 Mobile ad (tv based) 1 4,3 Mobile ad (total) 0, ,7 Mobile gaming 2,1 4,1 2,6 5 4,8 9,7 Mobile music (total) 6 6,5 8,8 12,8 Mobile tv (total) 0, ,7 Mobile SN and UGC 0,4 1,3 7,4 8,2 Mobile app stores 5 16 O,1% of mobile revenues; 0,2% of advertising expenditure 11 Source: Feijoo et al (IPTS, 2009)

12 Experimenting with business models Main revenues models Secondary revenue options Additional revenue options Sources: compiled from (Feijoo & Gómez-Barroso, 2009; C. Feijóo et al., 2009; C. Feijóo et al., 2010, forthcoming; S. Ramos, Feijóo, C., Castejón, L., Pérez J., Segura, I., 2002) 12

13 The techno-economic roadmap HDPA (3,5 G) LTE (4G) Femtocells Mobile WiMAX (4G) IMT Advanced (4,5 G) NFC Wireless sensors Cognitive radio and mesh networks Context awareness and cognitive technologies Theoretical maximum data rates 14 Mb/s (downstream) 5,6 Mb/s (upstream) 100 Mb/s (downstream) 50 Mb/s (upstream) - 50 Mb/s 1 Gb/s Typical data rates 3,6 Mb/s (downstream) 2 Mb/s (upstream) Mb/s 100 Mb/s 1 Mb/s - - Begin of massive deployment (for handsets) Enhanced version HDPA+ 40 Mb/s (downstream) Mb/s Critical technologies Main advantages Main disadvantages MIMO OFDMA Management OFDMA Evolutionary from existing 3G Transition technology Evolutionary from 3,5 G Time-tomarket Fixed-mobile convergence Increase of coverage Integration in existing networks Not a legacy technology Business case for new technology Dynamic spectrum management Evolutionary from 4G Still in early stages of standardization process UWB and similar Spectrum management Smart environment Business case for deployment Dynamic spectrum management Data rates Coverage Early development state 3D real virtual integration Artificial intelligence Integration in daily life Very early development Source: own elaboration from industry data Spectrum availability and spectrum management state

14 Disruptions: which, when and how? Relevance Time frame 1. LTE-4G 2. Cognitive technologies 3. Artificial intelligence 4. Internet of things 5. New user interfaces 6. Location awareness of presence 7. Semantic structured knowledge 8. Cloud computing 9. Augmented reality 3D Location awareness of presence Cloud computing LTE-4G Cognitive technologies Semantic structured knowledge New user interfaces Internet of things Mobile P2P - Mesh networks Augmented reality 3D 10. Mobile P2P Mesh networks 10. Artificial intelligence Source: panel of mobile content and applications experts (IPTS workshop 2009) Mobile as the tool to bridge the real and virtual worlds

15 Dilbert 2011 United Features Syndicate, Inc Content and media in our mobile digital lives

16 Successes, failures, lessons learnt and challenges Claudio Feijóo Madrid Technical University, Spain Access the presentation at: es.academia.edu/claudiofeijoo Workshop The economics of media and content industries 1 st MCI Workshop, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) Seville, May