Futurism, Innovation & WiFi Networks & Comms is too Important to Leave to the Telcos Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
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1 Futurism, Innovation & WiFi Networks & Comms is too Important to Leave to the Telcos Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis WiFi Now, The
2 Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis n Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 n Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting n Cross-silo, contrarian, independent n Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong. Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telco-Futurism
3 Key trends for the next years Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks
4 The carrier / mobile industry has its own trends / squeeze Domain- Specificity Democratisation Verticals Indoor IoT & AI Optimisations WiFi & LPWA MulteFire & CBRS Small cells & Mesh Arbitrage
5 Multiple delivery models for connectivity Service Owned / Private Amenity Community Embed
6 and there will be new & unexpected models too Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015
7 Multiple dimensions for future wireless networks And also: Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols etc Gbps Bandwidth Mbps Kbps Rechargeable battery bps Range Generator Mains electricity Long-life battery Harvested bpd 10m 100m 1km >10km <1m Power 90% 99% Wi-Fi 99.9% 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite 99.99% 3D Coverage Noncritical Functioncritical Businesscritical Safetycritical Managed spectrum Importance
8 Monocultures give efficiency but also fragility Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder
9 AI & Edge-Computing will have huge effects on 5G & Wi-Fi July 2017
10 Combinations of multiple networks are inevitable Including a beta of aggregation mode
11 Don t believe all the seamless offload / carrier WiFi hype Also: Don t forget developers as another important constituency many apps behave differently on WiFi & cellular. OS s expose connection APIs
12 and don t believe all the 5G hype, either 5G Use-Cases & Probable Timeline Massive M2M / IoT Enhanced Mobile Broadband Low- Latency IoT Fixed Access (pre-5g) Enhanced Mobile Broadband Massive M2M / IoT Low- Latency IoT
13 Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030 Services Competition Harmonisation Managed Ubiquitous Capabilities Substitution Diversity Intelligent Tailored
14 Mono-platforms & ecosystem diversity image: Monolithic platforms are fragile to external trends
15 Dedicated spectrum enables limited business models National MNO licences Non-MNO licences B2C Prepay & Post-Paid Subscriptions IoT Embedded Wholesale, eg MVNO Government eg Public Safety Few corps, eg utilities, rail but completely unlicensed spectrum has limitations too
16 National policies & licenses may not always work Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?) Offshore windfarm Oil refinery Power station Car factory Airport What are the options for managed, industrial-grade wireless for industrial use? Ideally, it needs licensed / controlled spectrum but not MNO-type services Port
17 Government & cellular groups becoming aware (slowly)
18 Beyond MNOs: Wireless service providers of the future? * *Disclosure: Disruptive Analysis is an advisor to Ammbr
19 Blockchain options at many network-industry intersections Network Roam & w/sale Billing / OSS WiFi IoT Services Spec trum etc etc Data Integrity Micropayments Identity Smart contracts etc etc etc etc
20 What might 2030 mean for innovation, WiFi & spectrum? n Network monoculture vs diversity n Industrial networks IoT bring unique requirements n Privately-managed wireless (licensed-band WiFi?) n Revisit the definition of services, telcos & SPs n Spectrum-sharing becomes mainstream n AI will have profound & unexpected impacts n Many tech pathways for any outcome WiFi has a critical role but it needs advocacy & vision
21 Skype:disruptiveanalysis appear.in/disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016
5G: Not just mobile carriers. Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis, May 3
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