Mobile Social Networking Research project By Nick Lane, analyst partner, ITM

Transcription

1 Mobile Social Networking Research project 2008 By Nick Lane, analyst partner, ITM

2 About Informa Telecoms & Media Informa Telecoms & Media is the leading provider of business intelligence and strategic marketing solutions to global telecoms and media markets. Driven by constant first-hand contact with the industry our 100+ expert analysts, researchers and journalists working in 14 countries produce a range of intelligence services including news and analytical products, in-depth market reports and datasets focused on technology, strategy and content. Informa Telecoms & Media Head Office Mortimer House, Mortimer Street London W1T 3JH, UK Website: For further information about Informa please contact: Freda.Benlamlih@Informa.com - +44(0)

3 About Direct2 Mobile Nick Lane, chief researcher/writer for Direct2 Mobile, an outsource company covering the mobile data industry, delivering research, analysis and consultancy Direct2 Mobile specializes in mobile social networking mobile Internet mobile content & entertainment messaging mobile marketing and advertising operator strategy mobile consumer behaviour Until August 2007, Principal Analyst for mobile content and applications at Informa Telecoms & Media Have tracked the mobile data market for 8 years. Covering mobile market for 11 years, initially as a journalist, and have adopted a more analytical and consultant role over the past 4 years. Direct2 Mobile is an analyst partner for ITM

4 Agenda The mobile social networking opportunity The research Italy Spain Conclusions

5 Why are you here? Total global mobile social networking revenues, Total global mobile social networking users, By 2012 there will be 428 million users of mobile social networking generating 19.7 billion Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

6 Mobile community segmentation The Future Me, My Circle and Our Content Me, My Circle Make me a Star Merge My Online with My Mobile Let Me Be Me Let Me In The players Pelago Whrrl, Rummble, Kamada Socialight, Vodacom TheGrid Nokia, MOSH, blinko, JuiceCaster, Mig33, MOKO, LookAtMeTV, Zedges.net Loop Mobile MOKO, asmallworld, MocoSpace, DeNA Mogabe-town YouTube Mobile, Peperonity, JuiceCaster, Toxom vigloo, EZ Gree blinko, MySpace, Bebo Mobile, Facebook Mobile, Piczo Mobile, Orkut Mobile FunkySexyCool, CyWorld, Eyeka, Itsmy.com, Mixi Mobile Jumbuck Fast Flirting, PlutoLife MobiFlirt, Flirtomatic, mygamma Friending: belonging to a group or groups in a community with known (or unknown) people in real/physical world Entertainment: consuming all types of professional and UG content, and involves uploading, downloading and purchasing content. Professional: develop and/or meet professional aspirations. Fame: for people seeking attention to contribute their UGC. Causes: members wanting to create social value around making the world a better place. Social shopping: ask questions about products, obtain recommendations from friends, or can organize and negotiate low-margin purchases. Competition: rewarding winners of mobile games with prizes and by keeping track of the user s worldwide ranking.

7 The research

8 Total mobile social networking users, The total number of mobile social networking users in SIBUU will be million in 2008 rising to million by 2013 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

9 Total mobile social networking registrations, The number of mobile social networking registrations in SIBUU will be million in 2008 growing to million Research from the five markets reveals that on average, one mobile social network user will be registered with 2.78 sites in 2008 and 1.68 sites by 2013 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

10 Total mobile social networking revenues, The mobile social networking market for SIBUU will be million in 2008, increasing to 2.1 billion by 2013 CAGR 19% Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

11 The Italian mobile social networking market

12 Italian mobile social networking registrations, There will be 1.81 million mobile social network users in 2008 rising to million in 2013 Average number of registrations per user 1.43 Average number of registrations per user 2.96 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

13 Italian mobile social networking revenues, The Italian mobile social networking market will be worth million in 2008, rising to million by 2013 Friending is worth million Entertainment is worth million Fame is worth 11.5 million Friending, Entertainment and Fame will generate 94% of revenues Friending, Entertainment and Fame will generate 98.1% of revenues Friending is worth million Entertainment is worth million Fame is worth million Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

14 Market drivers - Italy Mobile data market developing Flat-rate data plans to reach tipping point in 2010 Number of 3G subscribers will increase from 25 million in 2008 to over 86 million in million mobile internet browsers in 2008, rising to 28 million in billion page impressions per month Emerging off-portal market (on-portal accounts for 20-30%) Mobile social networking accounts for one-third of total mobile Internet traffic in 2008

15 Italy findings and conclusions Strong growth for mobile social networking services emerged during 1H08, though market remains in development phase Top three site: MSN Live Spaces MySpace YouTube Italian mobile operators less certain about their mobile social networking strategies with limited on-portal access to mobile social networks - TIM partnered with Shozu - Vodafone Italy launched My Communities - 3 provides links to MSN Live Spaces and Facebook off-portal Mobile operators capitalising on the appeal of mobile social networking to drive flat-rate data bundle adoption As the number of mobile social networking registrations per user falls from 2.96 to 1.43 in 2013, users will become more selective regarding which sites they access representing a mature market.

16 Italy findings and conclusions cont. Italian mobile subscribers willing to pay for services Market acceptance of subscription up to 15 p/m to access all-you-can-eat data and traffic mobile social networking service Subscription model will generate 13% of total mobile social networking revenues in 2008 rising to 17% in 2013 Access/traffic will generate 69% of total mobile social networking revenues in 2008 falling to 37% in 2013 By 2013, advertising will contribute 36% of revenues Acceptance of subscription services and advertising by consumers enables multiple business model opportunities

17 The Spanish mobile social networking market

18 Spanish mobile social networking registrations, There will be 1.08 million mobile social network users in 2008 rising to 8.67 million in 2013 Average number of registrations per user 1.53 Average number of registrations per user 3.9 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

19 Spanish mobile social networking revenues, The Spanish mobile social networking market will be worth million in 2008, rising to million by 2013 Friending is worth million Entertainment is worth million Fame is worth million Friending, Entertainment and Fame will generate 93.6% of revenues Friending, Entertainment and Fame will generate 97.9% of revenues Friending is worth 90 million Entertainment is worth million Fame is worth million Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

20 Market drivers - Spain Mobile data market emerging beyond messaging Slow mobile Internet adoption rate Flat-rate data plans late to launch compared to rest of Europe Number of 3G subscribers will increase from million in 2008 to over 51 million in 2013 On-portal accounts for 75% of total mobile Internet traffic 5.71 million mobile Internet browsers in 2008, rising to million in million page impressions per month

21 Spain findings and conclusions Advanced on-line social networking market with 75% business users unique to Spain Partnerships occurring between operators and mobile social networking companies Telefonica Moviles has partnered with Flickr Vodafone partnered with Tuenti, Facebook and MySpace High mobile social networking registrations of 3.94 communities represents an immature market. This will drop to 1.53 sites per user by 2013 Popular online site hi5 launched a mobile version in August expected to become one of the country s leading mobile social networking sites for the youth demographic

22 Spanish findings and conclusions cont. Similarities with the Italian marketplace Spanish market prepared to pay subscription to access services Subscription model will generate 11% of total mobile social networking revenues in 2008 rising to 15% in 2013 Access/traffic will generate 72% of total mobile social networking revenues in 2008 falling to 39% in 2013 By 2013, advertising will contribute 36% of revenues Slow development of mobile Internet has resulted in the lack of a dominant mobile social networking player in the Spanish market

23 Mobile community segmentation The players The Future Me, My Circle and Our Content Me, My Circle Make me a Star Merge My Online with My Mobile Let Me Be Me Let Me In Pelago Whrrl, Rummble, Kamada Socialight, Vodacom TheGrid blinko Loop Mobile MOKO, asmallworld, MocoSpace, DeNA Mogabe-town YouTube Mobile, Peperonity, JuiceCaster, Toxom vigloo, EZ Gree blinko FunkySexyCool, CyWorld, Eyeka, Itsmy.com, Mixi Mobile Jumbuck Fast Flirting, PlutoLife MobiFlirt, Flirtomatic, mygamma addresses the categories of: Friending Entertainment Fame

24 The future UK* Mobile subs Mobile browsers Mobile SN users Mobile SN page impressions 66, ,130 Italy* Mobile subs Mobile browsers Mobile SN users Mobile SN page impressions 53,626 81,574 US* Mobile subs Mobile browsers Mobile SN users Mobile SN page impressions 93, ,280 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Brazil* Mobile subs Mobile browsers Mobile SN users Mobile SN page impressions 8,739 57,969 Spain* Mobile subs Mobile browsers Mobile SN users Mobile SN page impressions 38,402 56,616 *All figures in million

25 The communication prism The conversation prism is a way of capturing and presenting the oft underestimated extent, reach, and depth of the Social Web. [This map of the Web 2.0 landscape] is a reference tool for Social Media professionals to start listening to the voices that define and steer your markets, Brian Solis Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

26 Conclusions Mobile social networking has not even scratched the surface of its true potential Mobile operators are making it a core component of their communications strategy The major online brands are playing their part in what is undoubtedly a recruitment campaign for the mobile industry Usage (registrations) will become more streamlined and selective in terms of the sites to which they are members and to whom they will connect over the next five years. Presently, online social networks like Facebook or MySpace are more-often-than-not connecting the disconnected.

27 Conclusions It is Informa s belief that the requirement to communicate between friends on social network has been overlooked on mobile Focus has been dating or flirting with strangers While mobile provides the power to extend a user s social network and connect with people potentially from anywhere in the world, the ability to increase a user with their existing and immediate social network has largely, been neglected Presently, the mobile social networking sector is being driven by the Internet increasingly difficult for internet-based social networks Creating opportunity for the mobile-only players

28 Conclusion It is Informa s belief that the most successful mobile social network players in the long term will be the pureplay companies that embrace the communication and functionality of the mobile device. Communication Location Immediacy Relevance

29 For more information on the white paper sponsored by Buongiorno, please contact: