Potato Market Change Retail Influences. David Berry Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel

Transcription

1 Potato Market Change Retail Influences David Berry Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel Kantar Worldpanel

2 Agenda 1. The grocery landscape 2. Potato category importance 3. Potato category performance 4. Consumer purchasing trends Kantar Worldpanel

3 Key themes in the grocery marketplace Stability Store Choice Inflation Smaller Trips Trading Down Kantar Worldpanel

4 Stability Kantar Worldpanel

5 Take Home Grocery Market Value 2001 to 2008 saw average 7% growth and overall 58% Annual value of take home grocery ( b) % +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8% Kantar Worldpanel

6 The market declined in 2010 but has now stabilised Annual value of take home grocery ( b) % +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8% +1% -6% +1% Kantar Worldpanel

7 Inflation Kantar Worldpanel

8 Trended Total Grocery Price Inflation Year on year like for like change in prices 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Consistency Over Heating 2008 Correction Increase 2011 Kantar Worldpanel

9 Trading Down Kantar Worldpanel

10 Shoppers are increasingly turning to Private Label 42% 43% 44% 45% Private Label Share Of Grocery Market 46% Christmas 2011: Branded Sales: -1% Private Label: +6% Kantar Worldpanel

11 Kantar Worldpanel

12 Smaller Shopping Trips Kantar Worldpanel

13 Christmas 2011 vs = 2 more trips 2011 = 1 fewer item 2011 = 26 trip size, 3 less 2011 = 100+ occasions down 13% Clear attempt to manage how much is spent Kantar Worldpanel

14 Store Choice Kantar Worldpanel

15 Multiple retailers continue to capture more of the market % Total Sales % Total Sales % Total Sales Kantar Worldpanel

16 Lidl now has more shoppers than SuperValu Tesco 82% Retailer Penetration Dunnes Lidl SuperValu Aldi 67% 60% 58% 50% Superquinn 24% Kantar Worldpanel

17 Retailer performance over the past decade Total Grocery Market

18 Store numbers play a big part in market share growth 209 stores 63 new stores since stores 34 new 12 new 6 new 196 stores 100 stores 1 new 24 stores Source: Desk Research

19 Agenda 1. The grocery landscape 2. Potato category importance 3. Potato category performance 4. Consumer purchasing trends

20 100% shoppers 99% 98% 97% 97% From a shopper perspective we are the 8th most important category in store 97% 96% 96%

21 10% of all shopping trips feature potatoes These trips contribute 20% of all sales 23 44

22 Within our competitive set we are a clear number 1 40% of value & 70% of volume sales 000 s KG000 s

23 Agenda 1. The grocery landscape 2. Potato category importance 3. Potato category performance 4. Consumer purchasing trends

24 Potatoes vol & val sales trended over the past 5 years Volume decline has slowed considerably since 's EUROS 250, 's KILOS 200, , ,000 50,

25 Potatoes growth/decline trended over the past 4 years Value currently declining faster than volume

26 Fresh Potato Share Within Carbohydrate Category

27 Competitive Carbohydrate Category Shares Rice, Pasta & Pizza have gained ground

28 Carbohydrate category 5 year performance (06 11) * Measured by kilo volume weight as a percentage **Measur ed by number of packs as a percentage Value Volume Price -32% -25%* -9% +6% +12%* -5% +59% +38%* +16% +62% +45%** +115%

29 Complementary Vegetable Category Sales Performance Growth in value and volume sales

30 Vegetable Category Value Share by Type Some change, but no fundamental shift

31 Agenda 1. The grocery landscape 2. Potato category importance 3. Potato category performance 4. Consumer purchasing trends

32 Fresh Potato Volume Sales Per Household (KG) Clear trend of consumers cutting down Potato consumption

33 Pack Size Share Within Total Potatoes (volume) Moving to smaller backs will have led to cutting back

34 Potato Carbohydrate Share By Age Resonance among younger shoppers is a key challenge Increasing share in younger age groups vital to current and future category health

35 Key themes Vital Category More & More Choice Connecting with Consumers Drive Footfall Changing tastes Younger = Less Consumption Key to high trips Convenience & Health Vital for Future Growth

36 Tel: