DECLINING TRIPS, INCREASING TOUCH POINTS A LOOK AT GLOBAL SHOPPING TRENDS

Transcription

1 DECLINING TRIPS, INCREASING TOUCH POINTS A LOOK AT GLOBAL SHOPPING TRENDS James Russo Carman Allison Meredith Schleiffer Deborah Wilczynski Elizabeth Buchanan NA Communications NA Communications GS Client Service GS Client Service GS Client Service August 2013

2 DYNAMICS OF A NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER CATALYST: Since the great recession in the U.S., shopper trips have not rebounded. Across 2008 and 2009 the average annual trips per shopper stood at 158, today that number is 144. GLOBAL QUESTION: Is this an economic reality or a longer trend that extends beyond the U.S.? RESEARCH PLAN: Analysis of consumer transactions across 14 countries from North America, Latin America, Europe and Southeast Asia, equating to over $33 trillion in GDP. 2

3 DYNAMICS OF A NEW GLOBAL CONSUMER FINDINGS: Global shoppers are visiting stores less frequently, but spending more per trip, making every shopping trip even more important. IMPLICATIONS: Maximizing the opportunity of a changing consumer landscape and rising middle class will not be achieved by traditional means, but increasing touch points across the purchase cycle. 3

4 GLOBAL CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO THE STORE LESS OFTEN Despite increased spending intentions, trips per household are flat or declining in many countries Annual Trips per Household 3 Yr CAGR * CAGR < -1% -1% to 1% 1% Canada UK Mexico US PR Spain France Italy S. Korea Colombia Thailand Indonesia Brazil Chile 3 Year CAGR for US, CA, BR, CL, FR, IT, UK, ES, KR, TH 2 Year % Change for MX, CO, PR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 4

5 A TREND THAT IS MORE EVIDENT WITHIN DEVELOPING MARKETS CAGR Canada Developed Mkt. Avg. 0.8% Spain Annual Trips per Household 3 Yr CAGR * UK Italy < -1% -1% to 1% 1% US France Mexico Colombia PR Brazil Developing Mkt. Avg. -0.9% Thailand S. Korea Indonesia Chile 3 Year CAGR for US, CA, BR, CL, FR, IT, UK, ES, KR, TH 2 Year % Change for MX, CO, PR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 5

6 KEY DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING MARKETS LEADING THE DECLINE Indonesia S. Korea Chile Colombia Canada US France % HH Spend Increase 9% 4% 11% 6% 2% 1% 2% % Trip Decline -2% -6% -2% -2% -3% -3% -1% 3 Year CAGR for US, CA, BR, CL, FR, IT, UK, ES, KR, TH 2 Year % Change for MX, CO, PR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 6

7 HOWEVER THEY ARE ALSO SPENDING MORE PER TRIP This trend is most significant in Asia Pacific CAGR Household Spend per Shopping Trip 3 Yr CAGR * 0% to 2% 2% to 5% 5% Canada UK Mexico US PR Spain France Italy S. Korea Colombia Thailand Indonesia Brazil Chile 3 Year CAGR for US, CA, BR, CL, FR, IT, UK, ES, KR, TH 2 Year % Change for MX, CO, PR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 7

8 TWO MAIN FACTORS DRIVING TRIP CHANGE LIFESTYLE Global consumers cite a desire for work/life balance as their 2 nd highest concern after the economy TECHNOLOGY 49% of global consumers make a purchase online, with over a billion smartphones globally in 2012, that number will only increase Source: Nielsen 2Q13 global survey, Nielsen How digital influences how we shop: Aug 2012 VS Q1 2010, 8

9 SUCCESS WILL BE DRIVEN BY INCREASINGLY CONNECTED TOUCH POINTS ACROSS THE PURCHASE CYCLE PRE Advertising Blogs Social Media Retail Flyers (print & E) Coupons Word of mouth DURING In Store Displays Shelf Talkers Coupons Sampling Merchandising POST Social Media CRM programs On pack coupons Websites Text messages Source: Nielsen Wire: Consumer Confidence: Concerns and Spending Intentions Around the World: Q Q

10 IT IS ABOUT LEVERAGING ALL TOOLS TO BRING THE STORE TO THE CONSUMER TV ONLINE MOBILE TABLET APP SOCIAL MEDIA LOYALTY RADIO E-COMMERCE ONLINE INNOVATION INFLUENCERS PROM0TIONS 10

11 CAPTURING CONSUMERS WHERE THEY ARE AS YOU WILL BE SEEING THEM LESS OFTEN Trips per Household are declining faster than Spend per Trip is increasing. With less store traffic, retailers need to capitalize on consumers time in the store like never before. Three priorities should top the list for every retailer: Satisfy loyal shoppers with savings linked to shopping frequency and spending levels Entice new shoppers with promotional offers such as a free reusable shopping bag or product Deliver on satisfying the consumers increasing demand for value. Value defined by convenience, quality, taste, safety, selection and prices Source: Nielsen Wire; Recessionary Impact Fewer Shopping Trips and Less Spending Per Trip: 11

12 MORE THAN EVER YOU NEED TO BE IN TOUCH WITH YOUR CONSUMER INTERCONNECTED IN HOME ON THE GO MEDIA IN THE STORE 12

13 APPENDIX DRIVERS BY COUNTRY

14 INDONESIA DEMOGRAPHICS & SHOP TYPES Indonesia Basic Household Monthly Expenditure SES AB >2,000,000 IDR SES C 1,000,000 2,000,000 IDR SES DE < 1,000,000 Shop Type Toko / Warung Pasar Translation Small Shop / Food Stall Traditional Store 14

15 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. INDONESIA OVERVIEW While channels vary in growth/decline, all demographics in Indonesia are declining in the number of trips per household Total Indonesia declining at -2.0% Channel decline is varied Hypermarkets is declining the fastest (-10.2%), however, it s the smallest channel in Indonesia Supermarkets +3.2% Toko/Warung -2.4% At a Total Country level, all demographics are declining SES: AB -1.3% SES: C -1.3% SEC: D -4.3% Indonesia 3 Year CAGR for ID Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 15

16 TRADITIONAL-TYPE MARKETS ARE CAUSE FOR TRIPS DECLINE IN INDONESIA Trips to Toko/Warung & Passar shops are declining or are flat across all demographic groups Size of bubble indicates relative importance of channel & demo group SES: DE SES: C SES: AB Hypermarket Supermarket Minimarket Other MT Toko/Warung CAGR Pasar Other GT 3 Year CAGR for ID Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data < -5% -5% to -2% -2% to 2% 2% 16

17 SOUTH KOREA DEMOGRAPHICS South Korea Low income Low/mid Income Mid Income Mid/High Income High Income Monthly Household Income: Less than 2,490,000 KRW 2,500,000-2,990,000 KRW 3,000,000-3,990,000 KRW 4,000,000-4,990,000 KRW More than 5,000,000 KRW 17

18 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. SOUTH KOREA OVERVIEW Although small, Online Shopping is taking off in South Korea, while other channels are declining in Trips per Household Total South Korea declining -5.8% All channels decreasing, but declining fastest: Hypermarkets -4.8% Ss+Mom&pop+CVS -8.2% Online Shopping up +8.5% Mid Income level demo groups are declining the most: Low/mid Income -6.6% Mid Income -7.9% Mid/High Income -7.0% S. Korea 3 Year CAGR for KR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 18

19 SOUTH KOREAN MIDDLE CLASS ARE DRIVING DECLINE IN HYPERMARKETS Middle income shoppers are not only the most significant economic group, but they are shopping less at the most important channel Size of bubble indicates relative importance of channel & demo group Low Income Low/Mid Income Mid Income Mid/High Income High Income Hypermarket Large supermarket Ss+Mom&pop+CVS Online Others CAGR < -5% -5% to -2% -2% to 2% 3 Year CAGR for KR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 2% 19

20 CHILE DEMOGRAPHICS Socioeconomic status is a measurement of the social / economic position of a household or person In Chile the SES s are based on: Household income Access to basic services and luxury Possession of goods (appliances, cars, etc.) Education and Occupation 20

21 CHILE DEMOGRAPHICS Average Household Income 21

22 CHILE CHANNEL TYPES Channel MAYORISTAS TRADICIONALES FERIAS FARMACIAS/PERFUMERIAS Translation Big Wholesalers Traditional Stores Urban Markets Pharmacies & Perfume Stores 22

23 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. CHILE OVERVIEW All demographics in Chile are declining in the number of trips they re taking to the store Chile Total Chile declining -2.2% All 3 demographics declining: Alto -1.8% Medio -3.0% Bajo -1.3% Channel growth/decline is varied: The FERIAS (urban markets) channel is increasing the most at +8.2%, but only accounts for 4.3% of Total Occasions Overall decline in Chile is fueled by multiple small channels that are declining fast 3 Year CAGR for CL Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 23

24 IN CHILE, SHOPPERS IN TRADITIONAL TRADE ARE DRIVING TRIPS DECLINE Low-to-Mid income shoppers are not shopping at Traditional Stores as frequently Size of bubble indicates relative importance of channel & demo group Bajo Medio Alto Total SP Mayoristas Tradicionales 3 Year CAGR for CL Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data Ferias Farmacias/Perfumerias Others CAGR < -5% -5% to -2% -2% to 2% 2% 24

25 COLOMBIA DEMOGRAPHICS The SEL is based on a methodology that takes into account a weighted average based on: SEL according to the government (accounts for 20%) Physical characteristics of the house (15%) Basic electrodomestics (5%) Luxury electrodomestics (15%) Other Characteristics (15%) Last vacation location (15%) Housewife and houseowners occupation (15%) Demographic Group % Of Population High SEL 29% Medium SEL 37% Low SEL 34% 25

26 COLOMBIA DEMOGRAPHICS Physical characteristics of the house (15%) High SEL Medium SEL Low SEL Finished Houses, all utilities, usually on complexes. Electrodomestics (20%) Medium + Low SEL + luxury appliances, cable TV Finished Houses, all utilities Low SEL + washing machine and other basic Vacations (15%) Usually abroad Nearby No Occupation (15%) Higher level education, qualified employers, High positions on companies, or company owners Employed on low and medium positions. Not professionals Vehicle Most No No Maid Yes No No Unfinished Houses, one bathroom, unfinished floors, etc, not all utilities, usually located on peripheries Basic appliances such as: blender, refrigerator, radio and TV Worker, maids, informal work 26

27 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. COLOMBIA OVERVIEW Trips per Household is flat or declining in channels and demographics Colombia Colombia Total Colombia declining -1.7% Both channels declining Supermarkets -3.3% Traditional Stores -1.9% All demographics flat or declining High SEL is declining the fastest at -4.4% 2 Year % Change for CO Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 27

28 FOCUS ON CAPTURING COLOMBIAN CONSUMERS IN TRADITIONAL STORES Traditional Stores and Middle-class are the largest segments and contribute most significantly to the Trips per Household decline Size of bubble indicates relative importance of channel & demo group Low SEL Medium SEL High SEL Traditional Stores Total Supermarkets CAGR < -5% -5% to -2% -2% to 2% 2 Year % Change for CO Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 2% 28

29 CANADA & UNITED STATES DEMOGRAPHICS United States Annual Household Income INC - <$20,000 Less than $20,000 INC - $20,000-29,999 $20,000-29,999 INC - $30,000-39,999 $30,000-39,999 INC - $40,000-49,999 $40,000-49,999 INC - $50,000-69,999 $50,000-69,999 INC - $70,000-99,999 $70,000-99,999 INC - $100,000+ $100,

30 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. CANADA OVERVIEW Declines are not driven by one channel/demo individually Canada Total Country Trips per HH declining -2.5% 16 of 20 channels declining Grocery -3.0% Drug -2.3% Mass Merch -2.4% Channels in creasing in trips Online +1.2% Warehouse Clubs +1.7% Dollar Stores +4.5% All income levels contributing to overall decline Consumers making <$20k and $50-69k decreasing the fastest 3 Year CAGR for CA Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 30

31 GROCERY CONSUMERS DRIVING TRIPS DECLINE IN CANADA Other channels and consumer income brackets sporadic in growth/decline Size of bubble indicates relative importance of channel & demo group <$20k $20k-29k $30k-39k $40k-49k $50k-69k $70k-99k $100k+ Grocery Stores Drug Stores Mass Merch W/ Supers Warehouse Clubs Gen Merchandise Stores Dollar Stores Convenience + Gas/Mm Online Shopping 3 Year CAGR for CA Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data CAGR < -5% -5% to -2% -2% to 2% 2% 31

32 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. UNITED STATES OVERVIEW Trips per household declining moderately US Total United States declining -2.5% Most channels declining Grocery -1.5% Mass Merchandisers -4.8% Supercenters -2.5% Online & Dollar Stores increasing +2.1% and +3.8% respectively All income levels contributing to decline 3 Year CAGR for US Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 32

33 SHOPPING TRIPS IN MASS MERCHANDISERS DECLINING FOR ALL INCOME BRACKETS IN US Dollar Stores are the only channel increasing at all income levels Size of bubble indicates relative importance of channel & demo group <$20k $20k-29k $30k-39k $40k-49k $50k-69k $70k-99k $100k+ Total Grocery Total Drug Stores Total Mass Merch W/ O Supers Total Supercenters Total Warehouse Clubs Total Conv/Gas Total Dollar Stores Total Online Shopping 3 Year CAGR for US Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data CAGR < -5% -5% to -2% -2% to 2% 2% 33

34 FRANCE DEMOGRAPHICS & CHANNELS Household Affluency: Definition : 4 groups of Households defined according to ranking of revenue per consumption unit" Equals 100% of Households DRIVE Channel = Shoppers order on the web and then drive to the store to pick up their purchases, where an employee loads them into their cars 34

35 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. FRANCE OVERVIEW Minimal decline in France is offset by increases in trips to DRIVE and E- Commerce channels Total France declining -1.0% All income levels declining within 0.7% and 1.5% France Pharmacy trips decline of -6% off set by DRIVE +27.6% E-Commerce +29.5% Trips per shopper for other channels (HM, SM, HD) are flat 3 Year CAGR for FR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data 35

36 SHOPPERS IN PHARMACIES DRIVING TRIPS DECLINE IN FRANCE The minimal decline in France is seen across all income levels Size of bubble indicates relative importance of channel & demo group Lowest 20% Below Average 30% Above Average 30% Highest 20% HM SM HD Pharmacie + Para Total Drive E-Commerce Without Drive 3 Year CAGR for FR Source: Nielsen Consumer Panel Data CAGR < -5% -5% to -2% -2% to 2% 2% 36

37 METHODOLOGY Bubble Size Determined By: Channel Share of Total Demographic (Demographic Share of Total Channel) Coordinates: X-axis: Increasing by Income Level Demographic Y-axis: Placeholder for Non-Numeric Channel Breaks Bubble Color Determined by: CAGR [.02, ) CAGR [-.02,.02) CAGR [-.05,-.02) CAGR (-,.05) 37

38 MAT ENDING DATES BY COUNTRY COUNTRY YEAR 1 MAT ENDING: YEAR 2 MAT ENDING: YEAR 3 MAT ENDING: BRAZIL May-11 May-12 May-13 CANADA 4/2/2011 3/31/2012 3/30/2013 CHILE May-11 May-12 May-13 COLOMBIA n/a Dec-11 Dec-12 FRANCE 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013 INDONESIA 4/3/2011 4/1/2012 3/31/2013 ITALY WEEK WEEK WEEK MEXICO n/a Jun-12 Jun-13 PUERTO RICO n/a Dec-11 Dec-12 SOUTH KOREA Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 SPAIN WEEK WEEK WEEK THAILAND 1-Jan Dec Jun-13 UK 12/24/ Jan-13 3/30/2013 US 4/2/2011 3/31/2012 3/30/

39 DECLINING TRIPS, INCREASING TOUCH POINTS A LOOK AT GLOBAL SHOPPING TRENDS August 2013