Optical Technologies in Terabit Networks. Dr. John Ryan Principal & Chief Analyst RHK

Transcription

1 Optical Technologies in Terabit Networks Dr. John Ryan Principal & Chief Analyst RHK Optical Internetworking Forum, Atlanta, June 5th, 2000

2 IP Traffic Is Exploding... RHK's Internet Traffic Forecast 18,000,000 15,000,000 12,000,000 9,000,000 6,000,000 3,000, RHK estimates that as of y/e 1999, Internet traffic was roughly 350,000 TBpm (terabytes/ month) Implication: Data traffic volume has now surpassed that of voice traffic globally!!!!- copyright 1999 RHK 2

3 Yet, The Best Is Still To Come... Only 2 million households have high-speed cable modems or xdsl access (~1 Mbps+) ~ 1.5% of North American households ~100,000 households in Europe Expectation: most will gain high-speed (10Mbps) access in yrs to come 10Mbps+ (10Base-T)/household x 100M households (each of Europe, North America, Asia/Pac) = 1,000-fold growth in bandwidth demand 3

4 Internet Access: From Academic Privilege To Global Must Have 1999 Internet Users 2003 Asia 21% Latin America 3% Latin America 7% NA 28% Europe 23% NA 53% Sources: Jupiter, Goldman Sachs, NUA, IDC Asia 46% Europe 19% Internet growth is exploding & going global Operators forced to rapidly provision new networks -- and to drastically revamp old ones 4

5 The Resulting Traffic Dilemma... Traffic is growing at explosive rates...and network costs are growing faster than revenues Relative size (1999 = 10) Traffic Costs Revenues Optical networks help solve this dilemma -- on a large scale. 5

6 Solution: Attack Network Costs Consolidate network elements: Simplify infrastructure by reducing the number of specialized network elements in favor of a more complex system using fewer, more flexible/intelligent elements. Deploy new network architectures: ultra-long-distance spans, mesh networks, switched optical networks, economical short-haul optics... Drive down component and system costs: No real impact on vendors as yet -- demand too high. Slash operational costs: cut provisioning time, enhance customer service & retention with fewer busy hands... Boost reliability: extend the MTTR of new systems -- downtime & diagnostic truck rolls kill profitability. 6

7 Optics Reshape the Cost Curve DWDM driving down the cost of trunk bandwidth creates a scalable platform for growth 1995: 5 billion bits/sec/fiber (4-8 wavelengths/fiber) 2000: ~1 trillion bits/sec/fiber (now 100+ wavelengths/fiber) $30K today buys you capacity that cost $200K 3yrs ago 450 $ $ $350 Throughput (gbps) $300 $250 $200 $150 Bandwidth Cost $(000) per gbps 100 $ $ $0 Throughput Cost/gbps 7

8 Pricing & The Technologies Prices/OC-48 (2.5Gbps) dropping rapidly in favor of 10Gbps+ systems By 2002, optical switches could offer the most bandwidth per dollar $k/oc Price Trends for Core Switches High end router switch STM switch Optical switch

9 Cutting Costs by Avoiding Regeneration Today coast-to-coast traffic passes through 30 SONET devices. Tomorrow the same traffic will pass through only 2 devices mile vs. 200 mile regeneration Seattle Chicago Columbus Boston New York San Francisco Denver Kansas City Washington San Jose Los Angeles Dallas Atlanta Source: Qwest Houston Orlando 9

10 Wavelength Transport in Metro Networks Core Rtr Gigabit Ethernet OC-48/192 POS Sw OC-3/12, DS3 ADM 10/100BT OC-3/12 POS Edge Rtr Direct connection of multi-gigabit routers & switches to optical layer. Edge Rtr Sw OC-48 Gigabit Ethernet OC-3/12, DS3 MSN MSN ADM MSN Metro DWDM Ring (OADMs) MSN ADM OC-48 OC-48/192 POS 10/100BT OC-3/12 POS Sw Edge Rtr Lower capacity routers & switches access optical layer via multi-service functions. Multiservice edge devices invoking core functions Sw Diag: Alcatel Edge Rtr 10

11 From Point-to-Point WDM To Early Add/Drops System: Long-distance, Point-to-point Enabling technologies: EDFAs (all optical amplifiers) Narrow-linewidth lasers (with selectable λ) Bragg filters System: Medium and long distances Static add/drop Enabling technologies: Lower cost EDFAs, Improved, lower cost filters 11

12 To Increasingly Dynamic Optical Networks... System: Multiple distance ranges Dynamic, remotely provisionable channel add/drops Enabling technologies: Lower cost amplifiers Banks of lasers Optical switches (small size) Tunable filters, laser, receivers System: Linking optical networks using optical technologies Enabling technologies: Large-matrix optical switches Ever lower cost amplifiers Wavelength management systems Creating dynamic optical networks requires tunable elements, switches... 12

13 Global Transport Spending of $31 Bn 1999: 47% growth -- from $22B in : $90B Where s The Growth?: 41% for DWDM & Optical Net. 22% for SONET/SDH 16% for Data Communication Systems (DCS) Shipments ($ Billions) DWDM and Optical Networking DCS SONET/SDH