Broadband on Transit. The Sizing Chart

Transcription

1 Broadband on Transit The Sizing Chart

2 Background Capitol Corridor Joint Powers Authority 170 mile intercity passenger rail in Sacramento-Bay Area-Silicon Valley w/ 32 trains per day 3 rd Busiest in Amtrak system Been involved in wireless networks on train since late 2003 Conducted several pilot/test projects which were testing technologies and/or business models, exposed to and analyzed varieties of business models, developed business model analysis tools, and exposed to broadband on transit on a worldwide basis through talking with operators and international conferences Approached early on by vendors due to market demographics Vice-chair for Joint Council for Transit Wireless Communications Technology Committee Will show where Capitol Corridor is on charts

3 Sizing Chart Each transit agency has different measurements Get the suit that fits aka there are no universal right answers

4 What s the Occasion? Just curious for now

5 Networked Vehicles and Infrastructure What s your application set? = What is the occasion?

6 Again, what is the occasion?

7 Take Some Measurements Topology/geography Revenue and/or efficiency options Purpose of the network Nature of the service Radio spectrum availability Organizational structure to lead this forward Demographics Ownership/assets for infrastructure deployment Partners in the project Funding sources Capital Operating Bandwidth supply Travel/usage ratio Extent of the service

8 The Concept of Mobile Broadband Bandwidth is scarce based on how many users and their applications will demand Often times, sources of bandwidth will have to be combined to meet the demand

9 Anatomy of the Connected Bus Cellular Gateway manages one or two network connections Ethernet Network connects on-board systems Wi-Fi Network connects passengers and staff GPS provides tracking and coordinates for other location-based services

10 Anatomy of the Connected Train Multi-Radio Cellular Gateway manages multiple concurrent network connections Antenna Array amplification and multiplexing, cellular and GPS Bridging Network connects carriages together, wired or wireless Ethernet Network connects on-board systems Wi-Fi Network connects passengers and staff

11 General Purpose of the network Bandwidth Need Operational use only (low bandwidth) Basic customer use (no streaming services) Basic + operational (low bandwidth) Enhanced customer use (limited streaming) Enhanced + operational (low bandwidth) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Costs? Full customer use + operational (low bandwidth) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Revenues? Full customer use + operational (w/ video = high bandwidth)

12 System Application Opportunities

13 Which Business Unit Leads the Effort? The IT department? Marketing? Operations? Planning? Maintenance? Rolling stock? The benefits of a wireless network extend to all facets of the transit agency and thus require a CEO/Executive Director perspective Find the proper staff who can work across disciplines to educate, respond to, and organize the effort

14 Seats Backhaul Complexity (100 most complex) Exposure to Seating and Installation Conditions Factor Seats Low End Seats High End

15 Capitol Corridor s Exposure to Passenger Usage Passengers (Average/Maximum) Maximum traffic Average traffic Maximum passengers Average passengers 3, 500 3, 000 2, 500 2, 000 1, 500 1, Kbps (uplink and downlink) Milepost Auburn Rocklin Roseville Sacramento Davis Suisun Martinez Richmond Berkeley Emeryville Oakland Jack London Oakland Coliseum Hayward Fremont Great America San Jose

16 Backhaul Complexity The complexity of the technology solution to fulfill the transit agency s need Technology comes in several flavors They can be stacked to create tiers of technology solutions Start with one, add another, and another Worldwide there are very few transit systems that have gotten more than one tier (SNCF trains in France)

17 Backhaul Technology Tiers Tier 1: Cellular 1 card/single carrier 2+ cards/single carrier 2+ (up to 9) cards/multiple carriers Load balancing Aggregation at packet level Not as complex Tier 2: Trackside (WiFi, WiMax base stations) Tier 3: Satellite (rooftop antennas) train train complex

18 Cellular Evolution helps transit connect

19 Global Spectrum Frequency Checkerboard 3G/4G Cellular Mobile Broadband 800/900/1800/1900/2100MHz Other 4G 1.6/2.1/2.3/2.5/3.5 GHz Fixed Wireless 3.3/3.6/5GHz Public Safety (mainly US) 700MHz/4.9GHz Other 5.9GHz DSRC. Unlicensed 5.8GHz, 2.4GHz, There s no one specific frequency or technology for Mass Transit

20 For Transit Operators in Multiple Modes (bus, light rail, and/or heavy rail) How many transit modes will be considered for broadband? How many now? How many in the future? Prioritize the modes and communicate to the public and internally why one transit mode receives WiFi and the other mode(s) do not

21 minutes The Transit Trip Must Be Long Enough! Does the Customer have time to use the service? Average Trip Time WiFi enabled smart phones/ipads/tablets are lowering the threshold value

22 Demographics Strong correlation of laptop and wireless usage by: Age Education Income Do you have the customer base that will use the wireless network system?

23 Topology and Geography Cellular coverage can t reach everywhere. Can a new backhauled base station or leaky cable connect the hard to reach areas?

24 Funding Sources Capital government grant or private funding External company funds capital e.g., cable communications companies State and/or Federal grants Operating Funds External company funds operating cost (assuming risk) Advertising?? (not proven yet) Induced ridership (more farebox) Cost savings in other operation functions

25 Business Models - Advertising $6,000, $5,000, Daily Riders $4,000,000 $3,000, Viewing Riders@15% Viewing Riders@35% Low Costs $2,000, High Costs Ad Revenue@15% $1,000, Ad $- 0

26 Business Models Private/Public Partnership This is a unique model - very limited circumstances Example: A large, dominant cable operator in a major metropolitan area could yet earn some market share Cable operator approaches the transit agency and offers to provide WiFi on the trains for its customers (the fourth play) or non-cable subscribers can log-on for a fee. Transit operator must negotiate a lot! Can the transit operator utilize that network for their own applications?

27 Business Model Induced Ticket Revenue Operator financial summary Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Revenues Opex Capex Net cashflow Cumulative cashflow

28 Business Model Upsell/Subscription Charge for its use with a logon fee or have it included in first class but not in second class Popular initially (mainly European train services) and seemed a way to shift to a higher revenue ticket The upsell ticketing and temporary subscription revenue seems generally positive maybe not as positive as the induced model UK train operator that changed from this business model to the induced model saw the traffic volume on the network increase nearly 10 times! (not sure what happened with ridership) This speaks to sizing the network appropriately.

29 Business Model Hybrids Induced model with supplemental advertising revenue and cost saving applications over the network Partnership model with cost saving applications over the network Negotiate an advertising model split?? Induced model with an Asset model transit agency leverages property holdings with communications partner Private Risk model transit agency stays out of the network business and all cost and risk with the Private company The private company risks a lot to earn subscription and advertising revenue both risky/unproven revenue sources

30 Combining measurements

31 Combining other measurements

32 Procurement Do you have expertise in-house to correctly understand and ask for this system? Consultants can provide a perspective into your transit agency and the wireless community that can avoid mistakes and probably save you some time and frustration When it is time to install a system, there are still very few experienced system integrators to select from do your diligence!

33 The Sizing Chart This is a quick overview The point is to take the time to take the measurements Resources for the next step: TransitWireless.org The Joint Council on Transit Wireless Communications was developed to implement the strategic plan of improving wireless communication knowledge and information sharing with crucial partner organizations