Fab Investment - The Surge of China Fabs. Clark Tseng Sr. Research Manager SEMI February 8, 2017

Transcription

1 Fab Investment - The Surge of China Fabs Clark Tseng Sr. Research Manager SEMI February 8, 2017

2 Outline Fab Investment Outlook 200mm Fab Investment The Surge of New China Fabs Summary

3 Fab Investment Outlook

4 Fab Spending by Product Types Led by 3D NAND and Foundry Change 2015 to 2017 A closer look 3D NAND 240% 2D NAND -73% DRAM -19% Foundry 20% Foundry/MEMS 285% Discrete/Power 11% MPU 35% Analog -27% Largest Spending 2017: Memory US$ 22.7B Foundry US$ 14.5B MPU US$ 2.8B Analog, MEMS, Other: US$ 1.2B Discrete (with LED, Power): US$ 1.3B Logic: US$ 1.2B

5 Fab Equipment Spending The Billion Dollar Club US$ Million $12,000 $10,000 Top Fab Equipment Spenders (Front-end) $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Source: World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2016, SEMI

6 Capacity Trend by Product Types 3D NAND, Foundry and MEMS add more new capacity Type Change 2015 to D NAND 800% MEMS 25% Foundry 18% Power 6% Analog -3% MPU -3% DRAM -9% 2D NAND -28%

7 Installed Capacity Trend

8 The Reawakening of 200mm Investment

9 The Reawakening of 200mm Capacity 2015 to K wpm Expansion of existing & upgrade 6 to 8-inch: K wpm New* 200mm cleanrooms K wpm 2015 to 2020 covers 4Q14 to 4Q20 * New: fabs which began operation in 2010 or later Loss due to closures or conversions 270K wpm

10 200mm Fab Count and Capacity Steady Recovery

11 Capacity Additions: New and Existing Fabs 2015 to 2020

12 Capacity Change by Region 2015 to 2020

13 Capacity Change by Product Type 2015 to 2020

14 China Investment

15 China Consumes Over Half of Worldwide Semiconductor

16 Strong Demand Growth from Chinese OEMs Source: IBS, 2016

17 China is now the Top Three Regions of Equipment Market 40.00% China Capital Equipment Market Share 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% E WFE A&P Test Source: SEMI EMDS, Nov. 2016

18 China Materials Consumption Set to Soar 25.0% China Materials Market Share 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% E Assembly & Packaging Fab Source: SEMI MMDS, Nov. 2016

19 New Fab Projects on the Rise 20 New Fab Projects Start Construction from 2016 onwards US$ Million Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution. Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2016

20 Surging Fab Investment Foundry and Memory Take the Lead US$ Million? Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution. Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2016

21 Foreign vs. Local Investment A Tale of Two Communities US$ Million $12,000 China Fab Investment by Parties $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ China champions Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution. Foreign companies Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2016

22 Top Spenders in China US$ Million $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Top Spenders in China, Front-end Equipment Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution. Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2016

23 The Rising Share of China Capacity 8 WPM (Thousand) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, China Capacity and Capacity Share (Including LED) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% China Capacity China Share % Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution. 0% Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2016

24 Capacity Trend in China Foundry, Discrete (LED) and Memory Fuel the Growth 8 WPM (Thousand) 4,500 China Capacity by Product Type 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Analog Discrete Foundry Logic Memory MEMS Other Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution. Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Nov. 2016

25 New Fab Activity in China Region Company Project Beijing / Tianjin SMIC Foundry B3 in Beijing (300mm) New Tianjin 200mm project. Silex 200mm MEMS Foundry Beijing Yangdong 200mm Foundry fab Shanghai / Ningbo SMIC New Shanghai 14nm fab Ningbo 200mm analog/specialty fab Hua Li Micro 300mm foundry fab Silan Micro (Hangzhou) 200mm Logic fab Nanjing TSMC Foundry 300mm (could accommodate 3 phases) Tsinghua Unigroup Tacoma (Nanjing) Nanjing memory fab 1 Analog 200mm, 1 Logic/Opto 300mm Jiangsu Aucksun (Huaian) 200mm IGBT fab Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, January 2017

26 New Fab Activity in China (Cont d) Region Company Project Xian Samsung Phase 2 of Xian 3D NAND Hefei Powerchip Foundry GigaDevice Memory (DRAM & Flash) Xiamen / Shenzhen SMIC Shenzhen Fab 15 (200mm) Fab 16 (300mm) UMC 300mm Foundry fab in Xiamen Fujian Jin Hua 300mm DRAM fab Wuhan XMC/Yangtze River Memory 3D NAND fab Shenyang Hanking Electronics 200mm MEMS fab Chongqing / Chengdu Alpha & Omega Tsinghua Unigroup Globalfoundries 300mm Power semiconductor fab Planned 300mm Logic/Foundry fab Tentative 300mm fab project in Chengdu Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, January 2017

27 China 200mm Fab Equipment Spending by Product Type 2015 to 2020 US$ Million Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution.

28 China 200mm Fab Capacity by Product Type 2015 to 2020 wpm Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject to change depending on actual execution.

29 China Momentum and Challenges Momentum The surge of China investment is both policy-driven and market-driven. Policies such as the National IC promotion Guidelines (2014) as well as the 13 th five-year plan ( ) are the key drivers of the new fab projects blossoms across the country. The huge demand and rising Chinese electronics OEMs also play an important role in attracting foreign semiconductor companies to set up facilities in China. Challenges There is no shortage of capital for semiconductor fab projects in China. The limiting factor will be the availability of talent and technologies/ip. The concerns of adding massive capacity in certain product categories may trigger oversupply in the long run. China faces regulatory challenges to successfully complete outbound M&A in tech sectors.

30 Summary

31 Summary Fab Investment Foundry, 3D NAND and China investments key to spending Overall Capacity to grow 2% and 3% in 2016 and The Surge of China 20 new projects on the horizon from 2016 onwards. Investment in foundry and memory segments are paving the way for China s place on the global semiconductor stage.