SEMICO Res e arch Corporation

Transcription

1 SEMICO Res e arch Corporation Industry Review 2000 March 31, 2000 Bob Merritt

2 Macro Economics US economy continues to gain Strength GDP +4.5% Japan stalls after a slight recovery in 1999 GDP +0.9% Korean economy expanding GDP +6.7% Europe Still Sluggish GDP +2.5%

3 2000 Computing Market Total $63 Billion Multimedia 18% PC 38% Printing 17% HDD 7% Multiuser 12% Workst 8% SEMICO Research Corporation

4 2000 Communication Market Total $48 Billion Other 13% Broadcast 3% Central 16% PBX 9% EDP Com 36% Cellular 9% LAN 14% SEMICO Research Corporation

5 $ Billions Applications Grow the Market 300 Emerging Markets Memory Shortage Worldwide Semi Shipments First Industry Downturn Memory Shortage IBM PC Windows PCs Better Software Under investment Slowdown in PC Market Excess Capacity & Inventory Excess Capacity & Inventory 50 Military Mainframes Calculators Apple Computer

6 Accurate Forecasting Year Semico s Forecast from previous September Following Year WSTS Actual % 25.5% % -3.2% % 19.7% % 1.0% % 16.3% %???% SEMICO Research Corporation

7 World Semiconductor Forecast $ M $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Discrete Bipolar Linear Memory Other Logic MOS Micro $ SEMICO Research Corporation

8 Total Semiconductor Units 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,

9 Pegged the Trends DRAM architecture still evolutionary and segmenting In September 1998 warned of foundry shortages in 1999 and beyond Pegged the processor forecast So what does the future look like? SEMICO Research Corporation

10 Revenue as a Percent of Total 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% MOS Micro Other Logic Memory Linear Bipolar Discrete

11 DRAM Market DRAM market in a recovery mode in 4Q99. Revenue shot up 39.0 % First & Second quarter returned to historical trend of declining ASPs Prices will be weak in the first half but will rebound in the second half of 2000

12 DRAM Forecast $90,000 $80,000 $77,853 M i l l i o n s $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- $23,418 $40,833 $30,559 $25,132 $19,798 $20,714 $14,011 $41,890$41,939 $57,

13 DRAM Market Price parity with the 64-megabit occurred in September megabit SDRAM volume is forecast to exceed 64-megbit DRAM volume by 3Q megabit SDRAM volume is increasing as some vendors do not have 128 mb SDRAM will continue to hold the majority of the market through 2003

14 RDRAM Still Needs Work RDRAM has a long way to go for DRAM market leader. Issues: Level of performance at the system level. When does it become manufacturable and testable with acceptable yields. RDRAM still has substantial premium. How quickly cost/performance ratio improves is critical.

15 Equiv. 128-Mbit DRAM Demand Units in M Sub Total Computer Segment Peripherals Communications Consumer Industrial Other SEMICO Research Corporation

16 Equiv. 128-Mbit DRAM Demand Units in M Set Top Box Cellular Base Stations Smart Phones Other SEMICO Research Corporation

17 DRAM Capacity Still an Issue Capacity additions have been started for production in late 2000 or early These additions will impact DRAM supply to keep prices from doubling in late 2000 or Semico does believe supply will be tight in the second half, but with new capacity coming on line, the shortages should not be severe.

18 Non-Volatile Market Flash unit demand exceptional Exploding markets forced Flash memory production into allocation cell phones, personal computers, data communications, and set top boxes

19 Worldwide Flash Memory Revenue M i l l i o n s $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 $18,567 $14,876 $11,187 $9,177 $6,770 $4,560 $1,860 $2,611 $2,702 $2,493 $792 $

20 Micro Logic Semico s 1999 projection very close to ML actual: $51.7 B (9.2% gr) 2000 ML Forecast: $62.7 B (21.2% gr) 2001 ML Forecast: $77.2 B (23.3% gr) Major Categories: Microprocessors ($34.6 B, 27.1% gr. in 2000) Microcontrollers ($16.5 B, 16.8% gr. in 2000) Microperipherals ($11.7 B, 11.8% gr. in 2000)

21 ML 2000 Trends 2000 forecast revised upward Continued strength in computing market especially in notebook PCs and servers Strong growth in communications especially digital cell phones and infrastructure Growth of high end consumer electronics, e.g., video games, digital cameras, MP3

22 Total ML Shipments $M $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $ Total MPR Total MCU Total MPU

23 Total ML Shipments M units 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Total MPR Total MCU Total MPU

24 Total Wafer Demand by Process Technology Thousands of 200mm Wafers <

25 Total Wafer Demand By Product Type Std Logic 5% Gate Arrays 2% Std Cell 9% Analog 19% PLD 5% MPR 9% DRAM 11% MCU 20% SRAM 1% NON-VOLATILE 16% MPU 3% Std Logic 5% Gate Arrays 1% Std Cell 10% PLD 7% Analog 12% MPR 8% DRAM 13% MCU 21% SRAM 1% MPU 3% NON-VOLATILE 19%