En Route Automation Infrastructure In Transition

Transcription

1 En Route Automation Infrastructure In Transition Presented at NEXTOR s NAS Infrastructure in Transition Conference Reza Eftekari June 13, The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 From NAS to NGATS: Much More Definition is Needed Re-ERAM? Agency Guidance Vision NGATS NAS Enterprise Architecture OEP ERAM Releases/Follow-on? or Pre-NGATS? The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

3 ERAM Baseline and Releases ERAM Baseline FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 Release 1 Sys Engineering Software Integration and Test Key Site Deployment Release 2 Capabilities Defined Release 3 Capabilities Defined Release 2 (~80K SLOC) Release 3 Some Candidate Functional ICAO Flight Plan RNP/Advanced Airspace TFM Integration Advanced Simulation for Controller Training Decision Support / Integrated Sector Ops Datalink Services ADS-B Applications ERAM API SWIM Integration Non-Radar Estimated at > 1 Million SLOC The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

4 Factors Influencing Potential Change Magnitude Factors Influencing Change Magnitude Change Dependencies Code Quality Resources Productivity System Stability Function Criticality Build Interval Performance Margin Modularity Complexity The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

5 Estimated Relative Size of ERAM Release 2 Candidates (not prioritized) by Bin Categories En Route Improvements NAS-Wide Improvements Maintainability, M&C En Route Infrastructure Support Test & Training NAS Operational Improvement TFM Reroutes Temporary Flow Restrictions Mexico, Canada I/F ICAO flight plan Initial ADS-B Surveillance HAR/NAR Adapted RNP separation A380 Controller Productivity/CHI En Route Operational Improvement NAS Infrastructure SUA/SAA constraint access HADDS/SAFA replacement Flight Object Route info expansion FDIO replacement SWIM integration 200K + 50K SLOC Total* * CAASD Estimate The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

6 ERAM Releases Estimated Demand & Proposed Bandwidth* 600 Release 2 Release 3 Release 4** Release 5** Release 6** R2 Demand R2 BW (Bandwidth) Demand BW R4 Demand R4 BW R5 Demand R5 BW R6 Demand R6 BW NAS Infrastructure NAS Operational Improvement ER Improvement Known & Unknown ER Improvement Known ER Improvement Unknown Problem Correction **Not part of the Existing ERAM Contract * Upper Bound - based on CAASD experience & s/w design rules The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

7 ERAM Release Change Magnitude: The Message Magnitude of potential change exceeds current planning and projected resources ERAM resource planning includes 80K source lines of code (SLOC) of software development for each of the Releases (R2 and ) ~ 40 KSLOC for enhancements ~ 40 KSLOC for fixes NAS-level prioritization, in line with NGATS objectives, is essential Need to examine the feasibility of increasing the bandwidth/capacity for development of new capabilities Need to start developing plans for implementing enhancements beyond Release The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

8 Some Conventional Wisdom If you change more than ~ 1/3, you might as well start over Maximum change between builds ~ 20% (but not safety critical systems!) Annual change traffic is 10-15% for commercial systems Large system developments can take 4 years to stabilize; start to decay after 9 years* Latent defect removal continues after deployment; performance is refined and optimized After ~ 9 years, change magnitude exceeds scope & extensibility of original architecture/design; software technology/system paradigms move on At some point in time, expect replacement or major refactoring *Roetzheim, William, Estimating and Managing Project Scope for Maintenance And Reuse Projects, Crosstalk, December The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

9 TFM M Baseline Cross Domain Functional Capabilities TFM / En Route Evolution: Integration Opportunities (1/3) S/W Development, Test, and integration More timely departure clearance R 1 R 2 changes from TMIs, reduced delays, and More accurate Requirements and S/W Develop increased controller prediction of flow productivity WP1 WP2 problems, common situational awareness, and more efficient TMIs Common Adaptation (e.g., Alt Restrictions, LOAs, SOPs) Pre-Departure Reroutes, Improved TDLS / PDC Interface, Dynamic Adaptation Status Automated aircraftspecific reroutes from TMIs, better reroutes, reduced delays, and reduced controller WP3 workload WP4 Airborne Reroutes Data Link TFM Constraint Exchange and Greater Automated Execution of TMIs ERAM URET/ERAM Centralized Adaptation Repository S/W Development, Test, and integration IOC Site Waterfall Requirements and S/W Develop R2 More coordinated TFM & ATC decisions, reduced controller workload and delays R4 R5 Note: Schedule dates are best information based on a mix of targets, and contractual dates Decision Points Estimated / Unplanned Milestone Planned Milestone Points of Integration The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

10 TFM / En Route Evolution: Integration Opportunities (2/3) TFM M Baseline S/W Development, Test, and integration R 1 R 2 Leads to: Requirements and S/W Develop Changes in controller roles and responsibilities (i.e., Control by exception) Other High enabling traffic TFM growth and ATC productivity. TMIs automatically generated using Priority probabilities of demand and capacity imbalances in order to minimize delays. by Domain High performance EnRoute airspace enabling reduced separation standards to URET/ERAM accommodate Centralized expected Adaptation traffic Repository growth WP1 Integrated route Assessment ADS-B Surveillance, ERAM API WP2 MIT Impact Assessment Sector Integration & Data Link WP3 WP4 Probabilistic TFM Precision conflict resolutions and robust conflict detection, full ADS-B ERAM S/W Development, Test, and integration IOC Site Waterfall Requirements and S/W Develop R2 R4 R5 Note: Schedule dates are best information based on a mix of targets, and contractual dates Decision Points Estimated / Unplanned Milestone Planned Milestone Points of Integration The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

11 TFM / En Route Evolution: Integration Opportunities (3/3) TFM M Baseline S/W Development, Test, and integration R 1 R 2 Requirements and S/W Develop WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 Decision Points Adaptation Design Enhancement Release Content Definition e.g. Execute Reroutes, Data Link, sector integration, ADS-B URET/ERAM Centralized Adaptation Repository ERAM S/W Development, Test, and integration IOC Site Waterfall Requirements and S/W Develop R2 R4 R5 Note: Schedule dates are best information based on a mix of targets, and contractual dates Decision Points Estimated / Unplanned Milestone Planned Milestone Points of Integration The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.