SFF HDD and Flash Memories. Coexistence or Competition?

Transcription

1 SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or Competition? A Summary of IDEMA Symposium February 17, 2005 Westin Hotel, Santa Clara, CA Vs. Dr. Ed Grochowski DISKCON AP Rama Gardens Hotel Bangkok March 14, 2005 Orchid Country Club, Singapore March 16-17, 2005

2 Symposium Objectives Review Technical Attributes of HDD and Flash Technologies Determine Present and Future Applications for Each What HDD FF Are Required To Meet Applications What Flash Products Are Required to Meet Applications Areas Where Each Will Compete Areas Where Each Will Coexist Areas Where Each Could Dominate Ed Grochowski

3 Scope of Study 1. Consumer Based Applications Digital Still Cameras Video Cameras Mobile phones MP3 Players GPS Games 2. Small FF HDD, 2.5 inch, 1.8 inch, 1.0 inch, 0.85 inch 3. Flash Capacities 4. Unit Prices and Projections Ed Grochowski

4 Why This Symposium? 1. Explosion of Storage For Consumer Based Applications 2. SFF HDD Have Made Inroads in Traditional Flash Territory 3. Demand For Higher Storage Capacities May Open New Opportunities For SFF HDD 4. Both Flash And SFF HDD S Are Evolving 5. In Certain Applications Both Technologies Will Coexist Ed Grochowski

5 Average Price of Storage DRAM/Flash HDD DRAM Flash Price/GByte, Dollars " HDD Mobile/Server HDD 1 Desktop HDD oemprc2005eg1.prz Year Ed Grochowski

6 Areal Density of HDD and DRAM/FLASH 1000 DRAM/Flash HDD HDD Projection 40% CGR AREAL2005EGa.PRZ Areal Density, Gbits/inch % CGR 1M 4M 60% CGR 16M 100% CGR 64M M 40% CGR Year 512M 2G 1G 8G 4G MLC }NAND Flash 25% = 2X per 3 years Ed Grochowski

7 A Clear Dichotomy has Emerged High Capacity Robust Mobility $ Lowest $/GB Form Factor 3.5 inch GB $ Highest $/GB Form Factor inch LxWxH 5.8 x 4.0 x 1.0 GB 2 60 Power (Idle) ~ Watts LxWxH 1.26 x0.94 x x2.13 x0.28 Power (Write) <1.0 to 1.4 Watts Shock NonOp 350G/225G Operating ~55G Shock NonOp ~1500G Op 1000G 500G John Buttress,IDC

8 Many Markets, Many Configurations required for HDD s in Digital CE applications for next 3 years DVR Home Media Gaming MP3 Mobile Video Players Cell Phones Multi function devices Digital Cameras Digital Camcorders Auto Navigation Auto Entertainment 3.5" Ext 3.5" Hi Cap 3.5" LC 2.5" 1.8" 1" 1" CF.85" Interfaces required: PATA, SATAUSB, CF, CEATA, 1394 Pat O Malley, Seagate

9 HH Units TAM by Form Factor Millions " 1" Mobile phone 1.8 Significant upside but limited growth High-end HH devices photo MP3, Portable Media Player 1.0 2hd Estimate 500% growth rate from 2004 to 2005 MP3 player explosion Market is still supply limited Mobile Phone FF 2.5G technology support Messaging Service(i.e. SMS) Started to adopt 3G technology which enables up to 2 Mbps transfer rate Estimate 60M units smart phone and 390M units of camera phone in 2005 Source: Seagate SMP,IDC Pat O Malley, Seagate

10 John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

11 John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

12 John Osterhout, Hitachi GST

13 The Forest From The Trees HDD Unit TAM vs. NAND Unit Flash TAM Million Units 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Other Digital Audio USB Drives Mobile Phones DSC/DVC Total HDD Units Total NAND Flash Cards and NAND Systems, Million Units - SanDisk Estimates Jan05 HDD Unit Forecast TrendFOCUS Apr04 Wes Brewer, SanDisk

14 Sanjay Mehrotra

15 Specs in 2006 SFF HDD NAND NOR Capacity 4GB to 10GB 8.0 Gbit 1 Gbit Data Rate 5-10 MB/sec* Write: 5-10 MB/s Read: <40MB/s Write 1 MB/s Read 200MB/s Latency 8ms 200us 85ns Spinup 1 to 2 s ~0s ~0s Power Temp Size Active 660mW** Charles Lee, Active INTEL 36 mw Standby 33mW** Standby 0.2mW 0 to 70 C 6cm 3 volume 5mm height High latency, high active power means SFF HDD is best for storing media -20 to 65 C 1.2x14x14mm Active 90mW Standby 0.2mW -25 to 85 C 1.2x14x14mm Low latency, high BW make NOR Flash a good choice for storing code or data SFF HDD can be a good choice for storing large audio and video data in mobile phones, but is not a good choice for storing O/S code, drivers, or applications *Sustained data rate **Active includes idle periods; does not include DRAM contribution Charles Lee, INTEL

16 10 LOCOS µm SA-STI 0.25µm-0.13µm 0.13µm New Structure 90nm~ Cell Size (µ m 2 ) M 32M Control Gate Floating Gate ONO WSi Tunnel Tunnel Oxide Oxide LOCOS Floating Gate LOCOS Control Gate Fine Lithography 64M 256M 0.25µm Control Gate Tunnel Oxide Floating Gate 512M MLC Floating Gate Control Gate STI 1G ONO STI Multi Level Cell 0.16µm WSi 1G 2G 2G 4G Floating Gate Control Gate Floating Gate Tunnel Oxide STI 4G 8G 0.13µm 90nm 70nm STI Control Gate Douglas Wong, Toshiba

17 Esther Spanjer, M-Systems

18 Competing Technologies: HDD vs Flash Flash Advantages Volume/GB Mass/GB Shock resistance Power Consumption HDD Advantages Total Capacity $/GB Read/Write Speed No re-writing limits John Buttress,IDC

19 Key Specs: How Good is Good Enough? Example: MP3 Players with HDD Read ahead into DRAM for 20~32MB (~6sec), then power turned off. = Non-op shock ruggedness, and power consumption minimized. 1.0 HDD Flash Memory Performance Read avg (MB/s) Write avg (MB/s) Power (mw) Idle HDD avg. usage specs are in-class. Read (256K blocks) Write (256K blocks) Ruggedness Non-Operating Shock 2000g 2000g Operating Shock 200g 2000g Rewrites Unlimited 2 Limited: 100~300K cycles Notes: Andy Higginbotham, Western Digital 1)Source: JP Morgan, Oct-04. 2)HDD manufacturers do not specify a limit to the number of times bits can be re-written. 3)Above are industry average specifications individual performance by manufacturer/product may vary.

20 Moore s Law Continues with Floating Gate NVM 1986/1.5µm 1988/1.0µm 1991/0.8µm 1993/0.6µm Visibility for scaling of floating gate clear to 32 nm Forms high hurdle for new technologies to leap 1996/0.4µm 1998/0.25µm 2000/0.18µm 2002/0.13µm 2004/90nm Charles Lee, INTEL 90 nm cell is 1/476 th of 1.5 µm cell 2006/65nm 2008/45nm

21 Flash Can Make HDDs Better Too Hybrid Drive for Longhorn chipset Digital Consumer Ideas for HDD/Flash Synergies Microsoft, WinHEC 2004 Don Barnetson, Samsung

22 System Cost vs. # of MB $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 $1,000 $100 $10 $1 128MB 256MB 512MB 1GB 2GB 4GB 8GB 16GB 32GB 64GB 128GB Total Cost 256GB 512GB 1TB 2TB 4TB Flash HDD 10x Jim Handy, SEMICO 100x

23 Format Miniaturization Smaller, sub-pico sliders Challenging flyheight parameters Refined flexure designs, capabilities Improved processing, robustness Smaller disks and actuator system Higher effective stiffnesses Secondary focus on windage, resonance Jeffry Bennin, Hutchinson

24 Maximized Box Capacity High areal density heads ESD robustness Anti-static coatings Low resistance slider/preamp grounds Transmission line performance Impedance matched lead designs Low loss materials and designs Active system components High lead counts for dynamic flyheight actuators Jeffry Bennin, Hutchinson

25 Summary and Conclusions Today, 1 Inch HDD Offer Best $/GB, 1/3 X Flash NAND Flash: Rapid Technology Progress, AD Exceeds Moore s Law Future $/GB Flash Has Potential Toward Lower $/GB But Continued Rapid Technology Progress In Flash Doubtful HDD Must Accelerate AD Growth, Flash Must Increase Rewrite Cyles >1.0 Inch FF HDD, High Risk Competitive With Flash, But Mobile Phone Volumes Worth The Risk Same Component Technology (Heads and Media) High Volumes Equals Low Cost In The Mobile/Consumer Market, Flash and SFF HDD Will Continue To Coexist Ed Grochowski