S FF HDD NAND FLASH PCRAMMRAM DRAM S FF HDD NAND FLASH PCRAMMRAM DRAM

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1 S FF HDD NAND FLASH PCRAMMRAM DRAM Can You See the Future? DISKCON Asia-Pacific March 2007 Mark Geenen President, TrendFOCUS S FF HDD NAND FLASH PCRAMMRAM DRAM Can You See the Future? DISKCON Asia-Pacific March 2007 John Kim Vice President, TrendFOCUS 1

2 Agenda Flash vs. HDD, Macro View MRAM, PCRAM, whateverram: Making Sense of Acronym Central Segment Analysis Conclusions HDD vs. Flash, Macro View What are main markets for HDDs? How are they changing? Flash hype appears overdone, but. What does it mean for all of us? Convergence or divergence? All-in-one, or application-specific? CE enabling movement of content Centering on video, mobile TV Large storage needed, and can flash play? 2

3 Dominant Memory Hierarchy Enterprise Server Desktop PC Notebook PC STB / DVR Phone, MP3 DVC / DSC SRAM X X X X X DRAM X X X X X FLASH? X HDD X X X X O OPTICAL X X X TAPE X MRAM, PCRAM, whateverram Nearly 50 efforts worldwide focusing on 16 distinct storage technologies Historically, a 5x to 10x improvement has been required Advanced MRAM: lower switching power, smaller cell sizes Solid electrolyte: conductive filaments, low conductivity 3

4 MRAM, PCRAM, whateverram, continued Polymer: materials with molecules susceptible to changing conductivity Advanced PCRAM: phase change resistors at lower power Complex metal oxides: oxides that change resistance electrically Carbon nano tubes: what? Fast DRAM (2ns) Announced by IBM in February 2007 Projected to have a much smaller cell size than SRAM (6 FxF vs. 100 FxF) Faster than conventional DRAM Target market is SRAM chip memory segment Fast DRAM may limit the potential for MRAM MRAM cell size of 20 FxF, FDRAM is 6 FxF) 4

5 So What is the Point? Computing market is growing CE demand for storage just starting Small HDD market potential under siege, but the game is not over Lines between a PC and a CE device becoming ever blurrier It s an HDD vs. Flash world MP3 Player Market Microsoft introduces Zune Zune with 30 GB HDD Apple s evolving ipod line up 80 GB, 120 GB-160 GB coming 30 GB 40 GB may be in play How to gauge Apple s influence? Terabytes of storage are used to store ever-increasing amount of content Flash is a worthy competitor 5

6 Game Console Market Xbox 360 leading the way Installed base now over 8 million 10+ million to ship in 2006 Over 24 million Xbox (1 st generation) sold PS3 will add momentum PS2 reached 100 million in 5 years Will PS3 do the same? Flash may play here within 3 years Auto Navi Market More cars with navigation systems Japan uses HDDs, US uses CDs MP3 player option in new cars ipod compatible, built-in MP3 player Cars of the future Entertainment (audio, video, etc.) PC function (internet connection) Flash can play 6

7 Other Markets Personal media player ipod, Archos, Zune, and many others Mobile phones Nokia, Samsung HDD sales small Flash can handle MP3s, but video? External storage (Crickett)? Digital Video Camera Increasing, but will flash take over? External HDDs Backup, digital content But, Here s the Deal Over 5 EXABYTES of data are created yearly and this is growing Under half the world s population has a PC, but more can afford one each year CE + Digitalization + Content = INCREASING STORAGE If it is stored locally, it is also stored centrally probably several times 7

8 Conclusions HDDs, Flash to Coexist Flash is a serious threat XXXRAM alphabet soup not likely a dominant threat through 2011 Capacity-intensiveness intensiveness is HDD s friend It s not about capacity, its about cost 8

9 Storage Costs Technology Cell Size (FxF) Relative Cost/bit SRAM FRAM MRAM DRAM PCRAM NAND Flash D-OTP 1 [3] 20 HDD 1/2 [4] 1 However.. It is NOT just about cost Apple s influence is strong Investment, capacity swings are the real reason for falling prices $/GB still favors HDDs, but is that enough? Don t always expect the HDD to win 9

10 Other Thoughts Complexity is affecting CE demand What is the networked home? Will Apple s UI/ease-of-use win out? Flash suppliers are sometimes irrational Collapsing prices attracting users ipod at risk of bifurcation HDD technology path is unclear Can areal density grow fast enough? Will users get enough enough capacity? The HDD s Future is Bright Units (Millions) Desktop Notebook Enterprise Consumer 10

11 Thanks to Dr. Chris Bajorek Dr. Mike Russak 11