Storage Market: Opportunities, Myths and Facts

Transcription

1 Storage Market: Opportunities, Myths and Facts William C. Cain Western Digital Lake Forest, California, USA PMRC 2007, Oct , Tokyo, Japan

2 Safe Harbor This presentation and comments made by WD during this presentation, may contain forward-looking statements concerning: trends and conditions in the storage industry; WD s expectations for growth in the markets for storage products; revenue forecasts in the storage industry; WD s unit volume forecasts for HDDs; WD s beliefs regarding the future of solid state drives, market dynamics product roadmaps; and WD s beliefs regarding the future and impact of solid state drives on the storage industry in comparison to hard disk drives, including with respect to power, size, performance, capacity, cost/price, reliability and availability. These forward-looking statements are based on current management expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including: uncertainties related to the development and introduction of products based on new technologies; business conditions and actions by competitors; supply and demand conditions in the storage industry; pricing trends; changes in the availability and cost of storage products; and other risks and uncertainties listed in WD s recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC on August 28, 2007, to which your attention is directed. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof, and WD undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 2

3 Myths and Facts Myth \mith\ n [Gk mythos] (1830): an unproved or false collective belief Fact \fakt\ n [L factum] (1539): a truth known by actual experience or observation 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 3

4 Today s Themes Storage is BIG business and is growing 2009 SSD thesis of volume notebook adoption is flawed Computing storage market battle will be waged on HDD s turf 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 4

5 High-Tech Component Market Opportunities CPU/MPU, DRAM, and HDD are largest markets Aligning supply to demand allows revenue$ growth $40,000 $35,000 HDD NAND NOR DRAM CPU/MPU ODD Revenue Dollars (in million ns) $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 ACTUAL FORECAST $5,000 $ E 2008E 2009E 2010E Sources: Gartner History, Market Share and Forecast, Hard Disk Drives, Worldwide, ,Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide: Forecast Database 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 5

6 Disk Drive Forecast: SSD Thesis Starting 2009? Units (in millions) SSD (Gartner) SSD (Samsung) HDD (Gartner) Sources: Gartner History, Market Share and Forecast, Hard Disk Drives, Worldwide, , ID Number: G , May 16, 2007; Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide: Forecast Database, ID Number: SEQS-WW-DB-DATA, February 27, 2007; Samsung SSD forecast 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 6

7 Time Tested PC Storage Attribute Model (circa 1989) Source: John Squire Founder and VP Engineering of Conner Peripherals 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 7

8 HDD Industry Knows and Understands SSD Pioneering WD & SanDisk work circa started it all & SanDisk Today s SSDs are repackaged and repurposed CF cards 2003 High-end CF (Professional DSC) 1 GB, MB/sec EIDE/PATA interface Interleaving controller (2 4) 2007 High-end 1.8 SSD 8 TSOPs, 32 die, MLC EIDE/PATA interface Interleaving controller (4) H I G H MB SSD 2.5 form-factor EIDE/PATA interface WD controller system SanDisk SLC NAND (3) MB Compact Flash (CF) EIDE/PATA interface Non-interleaving controller (1 channel) 3 4 TSOPs 2007 Low-end 2.5 SSD 4 TSOPs, 16 die, SLC EIDE/PATA interface Non-interleaving controller Western Digital. All rights 2000 reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission L O W

9 Drive Is Media, Electronics and Firmware Media Capability Bit Error Rate (BER) Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) Electronics Enhancement Error Correction Code type/length (ECC) Data Encoding/Coding Firmware Enhancement Data Protection Algorithms HDD Pre-amp + SoC Heads & Disks Defect Management Offline Scanning/Correction NAND SoC NAND Die Defect Management Wear Leveling 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 9

10 Myth #1: Storage Power Critical in Notebooks Fact: HDD is secondary to battery life at <6% of power budget 2.5 HDD off external power supply = powerless storage device Battery life with powerless HDD only 11 minutes more than with HDD LCD and LSI consume all the power Battery Life (in minutes) HDD - Notebook Power HDD - External Power Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on HP model 6100 notebook with 512 MB DRAM with Windows XP and WD Scorpio (160 GB) 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 10

11 Myth #2: SSD Offers Significantly Longer Battery Life than HDD Fact: SSD offers only three minutes (2%) more battery life than HDD HDD is secondary to battery life at <6% of power budget LCD and LSI consume all the power Battery Life (in minutes) HDD - Notebook Power SSD - Notebook Power WD Scorpio 160 GB EIDE/PATA SanDisk 32 GB EIDE/PATA Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on Gateway MX6442 notebook with 1024 MB DRAM with Windows XP 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 11

12 Myth #3: SSD Offers Significantly Faster Cold Boot Time Fact: SSD offers only three seconds (8%) faster boot time than HDD Cold Boot Time (in seco onds) HDD WD Scorpio 160 GB EIDE/PATA SSD SanDisk 32 GB EIDE/PATA Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on Gateway MX6442 notebook with 1024 MB DRAM with Windows Vista TM Ultimate 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 12

13 Myth #4: NAND (HHD or SSD) is the Solution to Faster Boot Time Fact: DRAM is the solution to fastest boot time through use of Windows Vista TM default power mode DRAM is much faster than SSD/HHD/HDD Boot Time (in seconds) Cold Boot from HDD Vista Sleep - Warm Boot from DRAM XP Pro (SP2) Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission XP Home (SP2) Vista Home Vista Home Basic Premium Vista Ultimate Source: WD testing in HP Pavilion dv9120us Notebook PC, 2 GB DRAM and WD Scorpio 160 GB HDD Vista Business Vista Enterprise

14 Myth #5: Windows Vista Sleep Results in Unacceptable Battery Life Fact: Windows Vista Sleep is a fantastic feature if notebook is recharged every 1-2 days 70% 60% Battery Life % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 24 Hours 48 Hours Source: WD testing with Home Basic, HP Pavilion dv9120us notebook PC, 2 GB of DRAM and WD Scorpio 160 GB HDD 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 14

15 Myth #6: HDD Size & Weight Critical in Notebooks Fact: Human attributes determine form factors LCD and keyboard 1.8" (0.8% of market) would be popular today if size & weight mattered Time-tested adage Use the biggest HDD form-factor that fits inside the box HDD <2% of Notebook Volume <3% of Notebook Weight Sources: TrendFocus; calculations based on an HP Pavillion dv9120 notebook computer Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 15

16 Are SSDs Really Faster? Lab Tested* *Using standard industry benchmark: PCMark05, IOMeter, WinBench99 Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GB SanDisk 32 GB Third Party SSD Reviews Super-Talent Brand 16 GB, 2.5-inch SanDisk 32 GB, 2.5-inch Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 16

17 2007 SSD: High-End vs. Low-End SSD SSD Type: Low-end Transcend 8 GB High-end SanDisk 32 GB Interleaved SSD Architecture: Non-interleaved Interleaved Floor Configuration: 1 die 4 die DRAM Buffer: None Optional 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 17

18 Myth #7: SSD Performance Faster in Random Fact: SSDs faster at random reads, not random writes SSD writes slower due to media and wear-leveling overhead HDD has write cache to minimize latency impact Random Read Read 1 Block Random Write Write 1 Block 1 12 WD Scorpio 250 GB Transcend 8 GB SanDisk 32 GB Source: IOMeter IOPS 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 18

19 Myth #8: SSD Performance Faster in Sequential Fact: HDD is faster in sequential writes, most reads Interleaving improves SSD sequential performance HDD has much higher read/write sequential transfer rates than single NAND die Sequential Read 1 Read 1 Block SanDisk 32 GB Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GB Sequential Read 128 Read 128 Block Sequential Write 1 Write 1 Block Write 128 Sequential Write 128 Block Source: IOMeter Data Transfer (MB/s) 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 19

20 Myth #9: SSD Performance Faster in Notebooks Fact: High-end SSDs competitive, low-end not High-end SSD excels in read-intensive applications HDD excels in write-intensive applications HDD-NAND Hybrid architectures target best of both worlds, but at added cost XP XP Startup 90/10 Application Loading App File File Copying General HDD Usage General SanDisk 32 GB Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GB 83/17 50/50 60/40 Read/Write% Virus Virus Scan 99.5/ Source: PC Mark 05 Data Transfer (MB/s) 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 20

21 Myth #10: SSD Performance Faster for High-end Fact: SSDs slower when using high-end applications Low-end applications tend to be read-intensive High-end applications tend to be write-intensive Writes are the Achilles heel of NAND/SSD in all applications Business Business Disk WinMark WD Scorpio 250 GB Transcend 8 GB SanDisk 32 GB High-End High-End Disk WinMark Source: WinBench ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 KB/sec Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 21

22 Myth #11: NAND Delivers Higher Areal Density Fact: HDD delivers higher areal density From Forecasted Industry Trends by IDC (HDD) and ITRS (NAND) 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 22

23 Key Roadmap Delivery Elements for NAND Process Technology Cell Size Bits/cell 2D to 3D Process Technology Slowing to two Year Double (41%) Cell Size Already Minimized >2 Bits/Cell Enters Across CY D Unlikely in Timeframe Source: various customers of ASML 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 23

24 Technology Push: Increasing Process Complexity Current NAND technology may approach practical limits in ~4 generations (~20nm) at ~256Gbit NAND Tech. Challenges Lithography New materials Tight process tolerances High aspect ratios, STI fill NAND Device Challenges Parasitic capacitive coupling Vpg >20V on chip Reduced number of electrons on floating gate Source: SanDisk: NAND at Center Stage, Eli Harari, Chairman and CEO, SanDisk, August 8, 2007, Flash Memory Summit 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 24

25 Bit Cell Size: HDD vs. NAND HDD has a Smaller Cell Area for a Given Feature Size 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 25

26 NAND Logical Scaling: SLC -> MLC MLC-4 MLC-3 MLC-2 SLC Features SLC MLC-2 Bits per cell 1 2 ECC (per 512 bytes) 1 4+ Endurance (ERASE/PROGRAM cycles) <100K <10K t R (READ operation) 25µs 50µs t PROG (PROGRAM operation) µs µs t BERS (ERASE operation) 1.5-2ms 3ms Sources: SanDisk: NAND at Center Stage, Eli Harari, Chairman and CEO, SanDisk, August 8, 2007, Flash Memory Summit Micron Technology, Inc.: Micron: Flash Memory Technology Direction, Jim Cooke, Director, Applications Engineering, Micron Technology, May 2, 2007, WinHEC Conference 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 26

27 NAND Reliability Challenges Write Wear-Out Cyc cles Most SSDs now use SLC for performance and reliability Only MLC can challenge HDD capacity at cost$ 2 bit MLC spec is 10% of SLC; what is the 3/4 bit MLC spec? > K 10K 1K 0.1K?? 1 bit SLC 2 bit MLC 3 bit MLC 4 bit MLC HDD Sources: Micron Technology, Inc.: Flash Memory Technology Direction, Jim Cooke, Director, Applications Engineering, Micron Technology, May 2, 2007, WinHEC Conference 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 27

28 NAND Solution Cost: Roadmap vs. Market Dynamics Market Dynamics 160 GB 250 GB 320 GB 500 GB $60 / $70 / $80 8 Die 8 GB 16 GB 32 GB 128 GB $40 / $80 / $ GB 120 GB 160 GB 250 GB $35 / $45 / $55 N A N D V al Die 4 GB 8 GB 16 GB 64 GB $20 / $40 / $60 4 Die u e 1 Die 1 GB 2 GB 4 GB 16 GB $5 / $10 / $15 Assume This 2HCY06 2HCY07 2HCY08 2HCY09 Supply > Demand Supply ~ Demand Demand > Supply 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 28

29 CY09 SSD Availability: Build $6B Fab? 2010 SSD Forecast 90M SSDs 720M Die per year 95% yield 1.7M wafers per year $6B investment Replace 276B GB of HDD 800M SSDs 17B Die per year 95% yield 38M wafers per year ~$190B investment $6B Source: WD Analysis >$6B Toshiba/SanDisk Yokkaichi Fab 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 29

30 Time-tested PC Storage Attribute Model (circa 1989) Secondary. HDD is <3% of notebook weight Secondary. HDDs barely audible at 22 dba Secondary. LCDs break first Secondary. HDDs <6% of notebook power Secondary. HDD is <2% of notebook volume Only high-end SSD challenges HDD HDDs are the clear winner HDDs are the clear winner Can SSD last in computing apps? ROI to invest billions of dollars in NAND fabs? Source: John Squire Founder and VP Engineering of Conner Peripherals 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 30

31 Conclusions SSDs offer: Two classes Low-end = lower capacity, lower cost, lower performance High-end = low capacity, high cost, high performance Performance Fast reads Slow writes Similar battery life Unproven reliability Limited availability Storage is a BIG business: $88 billion annually 2009 SSD thesis of volume notebook adoption is flawed Computing storage market battle will be waged on HDD s turf 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission. 31