Thinking Fast & Slow: Intuition, Reasoning and Emerging Memory Dave Eggleston Intuitive Cognition Consulting
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1 Thinking Fast & Slow: Intuition, Reasoning and Emerging Memory Dave Eggleston Intuitive Cognition Consulting 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 1
2 Abstract Our human brain can be modeled as two distinctly different systems: a real time intuition system, and a background reasoning system. As we move into the AI compute era, Emerging Memory technologies play an increasingly important role in overcoming the limitations of DRAM and NAND. The commercialization of Emerging Memory will therefore accelerate our realization of powerful AI systems Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 2
3 A groundbreaking tour of the mind, and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Daniel Kahneman is professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 3
4 Time for a brain quiz! Ready? 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 4
5 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 5
6 17 x 24 =? 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 6
7 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 7
8 17 x 24 =? Intuition Reasoning 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 8
9 Intuition System 1 Lightning fast Automatic Real time Effortless Approximate Reasoning System 2 Slow Interrupt driven Background Energy inefficient Precise Edge Datacenter 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 9
10 Edge Datacenter Non-von Neumann architecture Intuition von Neumann architecture Reasoning 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 10
11 Edge Datacenter Store Dr. Moda for now; we ll come back to discuss Edge & Intuition Non-von Neumann architecture Intuition von Neumann architecture Reasoning 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 11
12 Reasoning DRAM HDD Once upon a time, long ago 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 12
13 Reasoning DRAM NAND And for a while we were happy! 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 13
14 Moore s Law is slowing but still need low cost bits DRAM ASP NAND ASP $/GB CAGR -35% CAGR -48% CAGR -25% CAGR -12% CAGR +10% CAGR -28% CAGR -20% Emerging memory Source: IDC Cost gap between DRAM and NAND continues to increase Need cost-effective emerging memory to fill this gap Trajectory for DRAM prices for the next 5 years uncertain 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 14
15 Moore s Law is slowing but still need low cost bits DRAM ASP NAND ASP $/GB DRAM costs too much! CAGR -35% CAGR -48% CAGR -25% CAGR -12% CAGR +10% CAGR -28% CAGR -20% Emerging memory Source: IDC Cost gap between DRAM and NAND continues to increase Need cost-effective emerging memory to fill this gap Trajectory for DRAM prices for the next 5 years uncertain 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 15
16 The Latency Spectrum and Gaps ~ 2015 Source: Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting, FMS 2018 More Like Memory More Like Storage CPU/ SRAM DRAM The GAP (PM/SCM) NAND SLC to TLC HDD TAPE 1ns 10ns 100ns 1us 10us 100us 1ms 10ms 100ms 1s Increasing Density Increasing Cost 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 16
17 The Latency Spectrum and Gaps ~ 2015 Source: Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting, FMS 2018 More Like Memory More Like Storage CPU/ SRAM DRAM NAND is too slow! The GAP (PM/SCM) NAND SLC to TLC HDD TAPE 1ns 10ns 100ns 1us 10us 100us 1ms 10ms 100ms 1s Increasing Density Increasing Cost 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 17
18 Limitations DRAM Cost NAND Latency 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 18
19 Emerging Memory Targets Cost Latency 1/3 rd DRAM Read <1μs 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 19
20 Emerging Memory Targets Does such an Emerging Memory even exist? Cost 1/3 rd DRAM Latency Read <1μs 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 20
21 Oxygen vacancy migration TE MIT BE Filamentary ReRAM Thermo- Chemical Fuse/ antifuse metal oxide Switching Mechanisms Source: M. Jurczak, imec, ISSCC 2015 Memory Forum TE BE reduced Electro- Chemical ECM Cation Source (Ag +, Cu + or...) Ag + METALIC FILAMENT BE Cu + Interfacial ReRAM Schottky or Tunnel Barrier TE exchange layer O vacancy,... perovskite BE Phase Change PCM TE Polycrystaline MIT amorphous BE Bulk Transition Tunnel Magneto resistance TE Free layer Tunnel MIT barrier Pinned layer BE Electronic MIT (Mott) TE MIT BE BIPOLAR UNIPOLAR BIPOLAR BIPOLAR UNIPOLAR BIPOLAR UNIPOLAR TMO: HfO2, TaO2 TMO: NiO2 CBRAM: Cu, Ag based Memristor VMCO, PCMO, TiO2 Chalcogenide alloys: GST STT RAM (CoFeB, MgO) VO2, NbO2 Malgorzata Jurczak2018 Storage Developer ISSCC Conference. Forum Intuitive Template Cognition & Consulting Guide All Rights Reserved. 21 of 50 21
22 Oxygen vacancy migration TE MIT BE Filamentary ReRAM Thermo- Chemical Fuse/ antifuse Electro- Chemical ECM Bulk Transition TE Cation Source TE TE TE (Ag +, Cu + or...) exchange layer (Too) many Cu switching mechanisms! Ag + + Polycrystaline Free layer reduced O vacancy,... metal oxide Switching Mechanisms Source: M. Jurczak, imec, ISSCC 2015 Memory Forum BE METALIC FILAMENT BE Interfacial ReRAM Schottky or Tunnel Barrier perovskite BE Phase Change PCM MIT amorphous BE Tunnel Magneto resistance Tunnel MIT barrier Pinned layer BE Electronic MIT (Mott) TE MIT BE BIPOLAR UNIPOLAR BIPOLAR BIPOLAR UNIPOLAR BIPOLAR UNIPOLAR TMO: HfO2, TaO2 TMO: NiO2 CBRAM: Cu, Ag based Memristor VMCO, PCMO, TiO2 Chalcogenide alloys: GST STT RAM (CoFeB, MgO) VO2, NbO2 Malgorzata Jurczak2018 Storage Developer ISSCC Conference. Forum Intuitive Template Cognition & Consulting Guide All Rights Reserved. 22 of 50 22
23 Classifying the What Standalone Memory ST-MRAM PCM (3DXP) ReRAM Embedded Memory Increasing Latency Increasing Cost and Endurance 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved
24 WHO is doing what? ST-MRAM PCM (3DXP) ReRAM Standalone Embedded 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved Logos are the property of their respective trademark owners
25 Let s focus on the two shipping technologies! ST-MRAM PCM (3DXP) ReRAM Standalone Embedded 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved Logos are the property of their respective trademark owners
26 WHO is doing what? ST-MRAM PCM (3DXP) ReRAM Standalone Embedded 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved Logos are the property of their respective trademark owners
27 Does such an Emerging Memory even exist? Cost 1/3 rd of DRAM Latency Read <1us PCM (3DXP) ST-MRAM Uh oh That s not good Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 27
28 A Word to the Wise: Replacements There are no 1:1 memory replacements. Stop. looking. for. Them. Moving from DRAM+NAND world into one with Combinations of memory. Just one word. Combinations Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 28
29 Let s use memory combinations! Cost 1/3 rd of DRAM Latency Read <1us Winning Combination PCM (3DXP) +DRAM DIMMs for reduced latency! ST-MRAM +NAND for reduced SSD cost! 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 29
30 2018 products featuring Emerging Memory 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 30
31 FMS18: Intel Optane DIMM (3DXP on DRAM bus) Source: Mark W. Henderson, Intel, FMS Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 31
32 FMS18: Intel Optane DIMM (3DXP on DRAM bus) Source: Mark W. Henderson, Intel, FMS 2018 Arch, software, hardware total effort Reduces Optane read latency to a few μs DRAM operates as near memory, Optane operates as far memory Intel controlled 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 32
33 FMS18: IBM Flash Core Module (MRAM+NAND) Source: Brent Yardley, IBM, FMS 2018 MRAM = Fast persistent write cache in SSD 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 33
34 The Latency Spectrum and Gaps ~ Now Source: Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting, FMS 2018 More Like Memory More Like Storage MRAM NAND+DRAM DIMMS Fast NAND SSDs NAND QLC SSD CPU/ SRAM DRAM XP DIMMs /ReRAM 3D XP SSD NAND MLC to TLC HDD TAPE 1ns 10ns 100ns 1us 10us 100us 1ms 10ms 100ms 1s 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 34
35 The Latency Spectrum and Gaps ~ Now Source: Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting, FMS 2018 More Like Memory More Like Storage MRAM NAND+DRAM DIMMS Fast NAND SSDs NAND QLC SSD CPU/ SRAM DRAM XP DIMMs /ReRAM 3D XP SSD NAND MLC to TLC HDD TAPE 1ns 10ns 100ns 1us 10us 100us 1ms 10ms 100ms 1s Several memory combinations reduce latency! 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 35
36 Other interesting 2018 stuff 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 36
37 FMS18: Toshiba XL-Flash (Low Latency SSD) xxx Source: Jeff Oshima, Toshiba, FMS x reduced latency vs. TLC Still not 1us For low latency SSDs, attached to compute nodes Samsung Z- NAND, Intel Optane SSDs are competitors 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 37
38 FMS18: JEDEC NVDIMM-P Source: Bill Gervasi, Nantero, FMS 2018 Emerging memory and DRAM on the same DDR bus Open standard Non-deterministic behavior allowed Will compete with Intel Optane DIMMs Backed by all major memory companies 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 38
39 Summary: Your 2018 SSD/DIMM Watch List Everspin MRAM in low latency SSDs Intel 3DXP in lower cost server Optane DIMMs Toshiba XL NAND in lower latency SSDs JEDEC NVDIMM-P in open standard DIMMs 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 39
40 Back to Intuition at the Edge! 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 40
41 Edge Datacenter Let s talk about Intuition at the Edge now! Non-von Neumann architecture Intuition von Neumann architecture Reasoning 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 41
42 Edge Non-von Neumann architecture Intuition Intuition system in the human brains use <20 watts of power Using von-neumann architecture for Intuition >20 Gigawatts! Highly networked, local compute nodes Trained neural nets (NN) perform lightning fast intuition Embedded Emerging Memory used to hold weights inside NN Sum the weights using analog combine Most efficient implementation is analog memory (6+ levels per cell) Doesn t require 7nm/5nm process! 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 42
43 Hot Chips 2018: Edge Intuition SoC Source: Dave Fick, Mythic, Hot Chips 2018 Mythic currently uses embedded NOR Flash in analog mode to hold weights 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 43
44 Hot Chips 2018: Edge Intuition SoC Source: Dave Fick, Mythic, Hot Chips 2018 Lightning fast, low power, trained NN, analog memory Mythic currently uses embedded NOR Flash in analog mode to hold weights 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 44
45 FMS18: Future Edge Intuition SoCs use ReRAM? Image Capture Facial Detection (HOG) Preprocessing Neural Network (FaceNet Inception Model) Simultaneous Processing with Deterministic Performance Parallel comparison against all identities If no match, new identity created (learning) Representation (128 dimensions) Classification of 100,000s Identities stored in ReRAM in one iteration Non-Volatile, Instant-on Pattern Recognition Identity 1 Pattern Recognition Identity 2 Classification performed in one cycle independent of number of identities Source: Hagop Nazarian, Crossbar, FMS ReRAM Pattern Recognition Identity M Pattern Recognition Spare 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 45
46 FMS18: Future Edge Intuition SoCs use ReRAM? Image Capture Facial Detection (HOG) Preprocessing Neural Network (FaceNet Inception Model) Representation (128 dimensions) Classification of 100,000s Identities stored in ReRAM in one iteration Non-Volatile, Instant-on Pattern Recognition Embedded ReRAM as analog memory... in NN 128 Spare ReRAM Simultaneous Processing with Deterministic Performance Parallel comparison against all identities If no match, new identity created (learning) Identity 1 Pattern Recognition Identity 2 Classification performed in one cycle independent of number of identities Source: Hagop Nazarian, Crossbar, FMS 2018 Pattern Recognition Identity M Pattern Recognition 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 46
47 Why do I care? What is Emerging Memory enabling for AI? Edge Analog memory in NN Lightning fast intuition at low power Datacenter TBs of memory Better reasoning, based on more data 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 47
48 Why do I care? What is Emerging Memory enabling for AI? Edge Datacenter Analog memory in NN Lightning fast intuition at low power Emerging Memory accelerates AI! TBs of memory Faster reasoning, based on more data 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 48
49 Take-away points: Your brain has two distinct systems Reasoning system needs reduced latency and cost There are NO 1:1 memory replacements Emerging memory combos with NAND and DRAM Intuition system needs new architecture and low power Emerging memory utilized as analog weight in neural nets Emerging memory accelerates AI systems 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 49
50 Register NOW for SNIA 2019 PM Summit! Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 50
51 Dave Eggleston Intuitive Cognition Consulting Technology & Business Strategy LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/deggleston/ 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved Intuitive Cognition Consulting
52 Backup 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 52
53 Talk Outline 1. Demonstrate the human brain has two distinct systems 2. Discuss the best fit compute architecture to model each AI system 3. Articulate how DRAM and NAND are applied to the compute architectures 4. Identify the key limitations of DRAM and NAND 5. Present and classify some Emerging Memory alternatives 6. Discuss the Emerging Memory system enhancements 7. Identify who is doing what (by when) in the Emerging Memory landscape 8. Articulate the unique challenges in realizing an AI intuition system 9. Propose how Emerging Memory may solve some intuition problems 10. Point to the future of AI systems based on Emerging Memory 2018 Storage Developer Conference. Intuitive Cognition Consulting All Rights Reserved. 53
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