Arrival Scheduling with Shortcut Path Op6ons and Mixed Aircra: Performance. Shannon Zelinski and Jaewoo Jung NASA Ames Research Center

Transcription

1 Arrival Scheduling with Shortcut Path Op6ons and Mixed Aircra: Performance Shannon Zelinski and Jaewoo Jung NASA Ames Research Center

2 Time- Based Arrival Management Fixed Path Speed Control More accurate trajectory predic6ons Improved schedule conformance More precise scheduling Tighter spacing Reduced flexibility

3 Time- Based Arrival Management Path Op6ons Strategic use of path op6ons Delay absorp6on [HaraldsdoOr et al. 2009] Mixed aircra: performance [Uebbing- Rumke et al. 2011, Thipphavong et al. 2013] Tac6cal use of path op6ons Rescheduling for off- nominal recovery [Callan6ne et al. 2011, Swenson et al. 2012] Shortcut path op6ons for schedule conformance [Zelinski 2013]

4 Shortcut Path Op6ons Tac6cal use of shortcut [Zelinski 2013] Schedule to a nominal path (not the shortest). Reserve shortcut path op6ons to tac6cally recover from schedule disturbances. Poten6al to increase throughput 11% during high traffic demand. Schedule to shortest path op6on. Depend on schedule slack to absorb schedule disturbances. Poten6al to incen6vize aircra: capable of high arrival 6me precision.

5 Shortcut Path Op6ons Tac6cal use of shortcut [Zelinski 2013] Schedule to a nominal path (not the shortest). Reserve shortcut path op6ons to tac6cally recover from schedule disturbances. Poten6al to increase throughput 11% during high traffic demand. Schedule to shortest path op6on. Depend on schedule slack to absorb schedule disturbances. Poten6al to incen6vize aircra: capable of high arrival 6me precision.

6 Shortcut Path Op6ons Tac6cal use of shortcut [Zelinski 2013] Schedule to a nominal path (not the shortest). Reserve shortcut path op6ons to tac6cally recover from schedule disturbances. Poten6al to increase throughput 11% during high traffic demand. Schedule to shortest path op6on. Depend on schedule slack to absorb schedule disturbances. Poten6al to incen6vize aircra: capable of high arrival 6me precision.

7 Shortcut Path Op6ons Tac6cal use of shortcut [Zelinski 2013] Schedule to a nominal path (not the shortest). Reserve shortcut path op6ons to tac6cally recover from schedule disturbances. Poten6al to increase throughput 11% during high traffic demand. Schedule to shortest path op6on. Depend on schedule slack to absorb schedule disturbances. Poten6al to incen6vize aircra: capable of high arrival 6me precision.

8 Shortcut Path Op6ons Tac6cal use of shortcut [Zelinski 2013] Schedule to a nominal path (not the shortest). Reserve shortcut path op6ons to tac6cally recover from schedule disturbances. Poten6al to increase throughput 11% during high traffic demand. Schedule to shortest path op6on. Depend on schedule slack to absorb schedule disturbances. Poten6al to incen6vize aircra: capable of high arrival 6me precision.

9 Shortcut Path Op6ons Tac6cal use of shortcut [Zelinski 2013] Schedule to a nominal path (not the shortest). Reserve shortcut path to recover from schedule disturbances. May increase throughput 11% during high traffic demand. Schedule to shortest path op6on. Depend on schedule slack to absorb schedule disturbances. Poten6ally incen6vize high arrival 6me precision aircra:.

10 Objec6ve Research Ques6ons Can tac6cal shortcuts enhance 6me- based arrival management? Apply concept to terminal metering modeled at Los Angeles Interna4onal Airport. Can tac6cal shortcuts incen6vize early equipage of arrival 6me precision capability? Schedule arrival 4me precision equipped aircra; with reduced buffers.

11 Outline Route modeling Arrival scheduler Simula6on Experiment Setup Experiment Metrics Results Conclusion

12 Baseline Arrival Rou6ng Route Modeling meter fix turboprop route jet route merge point runway threshold

13 Shortcut Path Op6ons Route Modeling All shortcuts may be used tac6cally. Only Final shortcuts may be used strategically by the scheduler. decision point bypassed merge point Feeder shortcut merge point Final shortcut

14 Route Modeling NW Feeder N Final NE Feeder S Final SE Feeder S Feeder

15 Arrival Scheduler Mul6- Point Scheduler New Flight (meter fix ETA) Travel Time Ranges (per route segment) Route (meter fix to runway) Blocked Times (per scheduling point) [Meyn, 2010] Schedule (earliest STAs at each point) Solu6on Set (feasible STA windows at each point) Compute schedule for all route op6ons. Assign route producing earliest runway STA.

16 Arrival Scheduler Mul6- Point Scheduler New Flight (meter fix ETA) Travel Time Ranges (per route segment) Route (meter fix to runway) Blocked Times (per scheduling point) [Meyn, 2010] Blocked Schedule Times = (earliest STAs at each point) Required Separa6on + Scheduling Buffer Buffer Solu6on depends Set on: Delivery precision Shortcut availability (feasible STA windows at each point) Compute schedule for all route op6ons. Assign route producing earliest runway STA.

17 Arrival Scheduler Buffers Delivery Precision Required Time of Arrival (RTA): σ = 4.5 sec Controller Managed Spacing (CMS): σ = 9 sec Shortcut Availability Available: buffer = 1.1σ Not available: buffer = 1.8σ [Zelinski 2013] [Klooster et al. 2009, Swieringa et al. 2014] [Kupfer et al. 2011, Thipphavong et al. 2013] Shortcut Not Available Scheduling Buffer RTA CMS Shortcut Available RTA CMS seconds

18 Arrival Scheduler Example Shortcut Not Available Scheduling Buffer RTA CMS Shortcut Available RTA CMS seconds CMS 16.2 sec buffer 16.2 sec buffer 9.9 sec buffer 9.9 sec buffer

19 Arrival Scheduler Example 16.2 sec buffer CMS Shortcut Not Available Shortcut Available Scheduling Buffer RTA RTA CMS CMS seconds 9.9 sec buffer 9.9 sec buffer 9.9 sec buffer

20 Arrival Scheduler Example 16.2 sec buffer CMS Shortcut Not Available Shortcut Available Scheduling Buffer RTA RTA CMS CMS seconds Scheduled Final Shortcut 9.9 sec buffer 16.2 sec buffer

21 Arrival Scheduler Example 8.1 sec buffer RTA Shortcut Not Available Shortcut Available Scheduling Buffer RTA RTA CMS CMS seconds Scheduled Final Shortcut 4.9 sec buffer 8.1 sec buffer

22 Simula6on Actual Time of Arrival (ATA) Errors: Meter fix error σ = 60 seconds for all aircra:. All other error σ = 4.5 (RTA) or 9 (CMS) seconds. Speed control range: Speed up by 5% Slow down by 10% Preliminary ATA moved back if violates spacing requirements. All late flights use shortcut.

23 Experiment Setup Fleet mix and meter fix distribu6on: Based on historical traffic RTA equipage ra6o: Ranged from 0 (all CMS) to 1 (all RTA) in 0.1 increments Traffic scenarios: 2- hours, 144 flights each 1000 scenarios per RTA equipage ra6o Rou6ng scenarios: Baseline Shortcut Simula6ons: 100 varia6ons per traffic/rou6ng scenario

24 Experiment Metrics Throughput: Counts of runway arrival 6mes during 2 nd hour of each simula6on. Demand (ETA), Scheduled (STA), and Actual (ATA). Scheduled Delay: Total delay (STA- ETA) segregated into Center, path, and speed delay. Averaged across all 144 flights in each simula6on. Total Delay Center Delay Path Delay Speed Delay Terminal Airspace Delay

25 Experiment Metrics Speed Control Workload Percent instances when preliminary ATA violates spacing requirements and must be moved back. Shortcut Usage Percent scheduled shortcuts Percent shortcuts used tac6cally Schedule Conformance Error (ATA- STA) at each coordina6on point Mean and Standard error

26 Results - Throughput Average flights per hour Shortcuts Baseline 73# 72# 71# 70# 69# 68# Demand Scheduled Actual 0# 0.1# 0.2# 0.3# 0.4# 0.5# 0.6# 0.7# 0.8# 0.9# 1# RTA equipage ra6o Shortcuts achieved higher throughput at lower RTA ra6o.

27 Results Scheduled Delay Baseline Shortcuts Average scheduled delay (seconds) 210" 180" 150" 120" 90" 60" 30" 0" Speed Path Most addi6onal delay applied to Center. Traffic scenarios are satura6ng the terminal. 0" 0.1" 0.2" 0.3" 0.4" 0.5" 0.6" 0.7" 0.8" 0.9" 1" RTA equipage ra6o

28 Results Speed Control Workload 64%$ Baseline 62%$ Percent ATA adjustments 60%$ 58%$ 8% Shortcut 10% 56%$ 54%$ 0$ 0.1$ 0.2$ 0.3$ 0.4$ 0.5$ 0.6$ 0.7$ 0.8$ 0.9$ 1$ RTA equipage ra6o Shortcuts reduce speed control workload 8-10%. Workload benefit persists for high RTA equipage ra6os.

29 Percent scheduled shortcuts Results Shortcut Usage (Scheduled) 18%# 16%# 14%# 12%# 10%# 8%# 6%# 4%# 2%# 0%# RTA CMS 0# 0.1# 0.2# 0.3# 0.4# 0.5# 0.6# 0.7# 0.8# 0.9# 1# RTA equipage ra6o Low scheduled shortcut usage. Usage increases with RTA ra6o. RTA shortcut usage similar to CMS. South shortcut North shortcut North South

30 NW Feeder S Final S Feeder N Final NW Feeder SE Feeder NE Feeder Results Shortcut Usage (Tac6cal) N Final S Final S Feeder Tac6cal Shortcut Availability 0" 10" 20" 30" 40" 50" No. per simula6on NE Feeder SE Feeder Tac6cal Shortcut Usage 50%$60%$70%$80%$90%$100%$ Percent used of available High tac6cal shortcut usage. Why? High meter fix uncertainty and cascading delays. High traffic load with few gaps. Asymmetric speed control authority.

31 Results Schedule Conformance 1 Error = ATA- STA Posi6ve Error = Late Shortcut rou6ng is more effec6ve: Mi6ga6ng increasing mean error Reducing standard error " 50" Standard Error sec 30" 20" 10" Mean Error Shortcut Baseline sec 40" 30" 20" 10" 0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6" 0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6"

32 Conclusion - Research Ques6ons Answered Can tac6cal shortcuts enhance 6me- based arrival management? Yes Enhancements: Increased schedule conformance Tighter slots Benefits: Increased throughput Reduced delay Reduced workload Usage lesson learned: Reserving shortcuts for tac6cal use makes the schedule more robust to disturbances.

33 Conclusion - Research Ques6ons Answered Can tac6cal shortcuts incen6vize early equipage of arrival 6me precision capability? Not much System benefits increased with equipage but RTA equipped aircra: had no significant advantage over unequipped.

34 Ques6ons?