Modeling and Mapping Global Emissions of Carbon Dioxide: The Hestia Project

Transcription

1 Modeling and Mapping Global Emissions of Carbon Dioxide: The Hestia Project Kevin Robert Gurney Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science Department of Agronomy Purdue Climate Change Research Center Many thanks to: Broc Seib, William Ansley, Chris Miller, Nathan Andrysco, Daniel Mendoza, Marc Fischer, Dennis Ojima, Scott Denning, Kathy Corbin, Paul Shepson, Rose Filley, Lisa Robertson, Jeff Vitter, Elizabeth Liley, NASA, Scott Murtishaw, CO2FFEE & GCP 2/13/2008

2 What have we been using? 1 degree resolution Sales, consumption at national level with pop for proxy spatial Many thanks go to Gregg Marland, Robert Andres, Christine Broniak, TJ Blasing, Tom Boden and colleagues

3 OCO (Orbital Carbon Observatory) Estimated accuracy for single column ~1.6 ppmv 1 x 1.5 km IFOV 10 pixel wide swath 105 minute polar orbit 26º spacing in longitude between swaths 16-day return time

4 Start with EPA emissions models & data Comprehensive database/models that combines: inventory data - stack monitoring, emissions reports, etc process attributes - control devices, fuel consumed, etc classification - individual facilities, source category codes to construct detailed space and time dependent emissions of criteria pollutants (CO, O 3, NOx, SOx, particulates, Pb) Three classes of inputs: Point sources powerplants, for example Mobile sources vehicle emissions Area sources residential sources, for example ~6 million fields of information (alphanumeric)

5 Manipulate existing AQ to generate CO 2 CO 2 direct Fuel throughput CO/NOx emissions Emission controls CO/NOx EF (SCC level) CO 2 EF (fuel, combustion type) Place/time (geolocated, census, road map)

6 Results from Vulcan

7 Results from Vulcan

8 Results from Vulcan

9 Results from Vulcan

10 Results from Vulcan

11 Dynamic emissions Rush hours: 8 am, 6 pm peaks Dominant in exurban/rural

12 Independent check Table: 2002 fossil CO 2 (GtC/year) category This study EIA transport industrial electricity residential commercial cement Total % 1 Vulcan missing nonroad and aircraft (~10%) Semi-formal uncertainty analysis underway! Canada & Mexico underway

13 Assessment: EPA/EIA lists.purdue.edu/mailman/admin/vulcan/

14 Assessment: EPA/EIA lists.purdue.edu/mailman/admin/vulcan/

15 Assessment: EPA/EIA lists.purdue.edu/mailman/admin/vulcan/

16 Assessment: EPA/EIA lists.purdue.edu/mailman/admin/vulcan/

17 While working on Vulcan cont. National policymakers: Need greater fidelity to generate smart, efficient, economically viable policy & it must scale up Accounting, Assessment, Local/regional managers: Scenario-building, Verification information salient to the local scale - urban landscape Industry: Footprinting, policy-emissions landscape matching, education The public: They need a medium through which the problem, the solutions, their role..is clear, positive, empowering, etc

18 Hestia

19 Hestia

20 Hestia

21 Industry Who needs this? Carbon/climate science Air Quality managers Social science Policymakers The public

22 Public empowerment Offers an unprecented, visceral connection to solution technology Links consumers and producers within a digital world where a consumer has control over options Insulati on Energ y saved $ saved Carbon saved R13 to R15 xxxx xxxx xxxx R15 to R18 xxxx xxxx xxxx Transpor t Energy saved $ saved Carbon saved windows xxxx xxxx xxxx ethanol xxxx xxxx xxxx hybrid xxxx xxxx xxxx Climate change in The living room Leveraged off of now-familiar platform

23 Some attributes Methodological consistency 2-way data structure Grassroots == world National goals to local action Efficiency Urban comparison Everybody trades Assessment, verification Visualize solutions/connections Scientific credibility, ensure value Downscale?..TRANSCEND SCALE

24 Purdue is fully behind Hestia Etna - Indianapolis pilot Where is Hestia? Maia - California proposed research (NASA) Industry/Foundation/NGO/policymaker roundtables (Indy, DC, West) Etna Construct an example of the Hestia effort Using the City of Indianapolis as the testbed. What do we Need? Prove concept Partnerships (govt/industry/ngos/academia/community) Learn Immediate results Resources Your thoughts/feedback/comments A postdoc!

25 Thank you