Mobile Industry "Need for Speed"

Transcription

1 Mobile Industry "Need for Speed" Richard Wietfeldt, Ph.D. Qualcomm - Mobile Forum 2013 Copyright 2013 Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.

2 "Need for Speed" Speed is often considered a sign of progress or innovation. Google Fiber chief [April 2013] we re obsessed with speed... speed matters because it s the source of innovation on the web."

3 Mobile Industry "Need for Speed" Exciting

4 Mobile Industry "Need for Speed"? Challenging

5 Mobile Industry "Need for Speed" Reality throttling

6 Agenda Mobile Market Mobile Market Overview Key Technology Trends JEDEC Mobile Memory Challenges & Solutions Technology JEDEC this is about the importance of mobile memory/storage, and in JEDEC s drive to meet the demands of this growing market

7 Mobile Market Overview

8 Industry Trends Cloud Drives Modem & Connectivity Attach Technology Velocity is Increasing Smartphone Setting the Pace

9 Smartphone: The Biggest Platform in the History of Mankind #1 $1.5T ~6.6B+ Mobile Connections 24% CAGR Global Mobile Revenues Source: Wireless Intelligence, Jan. 2013, CIA World Factbook, Dec. 11, Chetan Sharma Consulting, May, 2012 Most Used Device

10 Smartphone: Our Most Important Device IMMEDIACY, PORTABILITY, CONNECTEDNESS 1/3+ of daily media interactions occur on a smartphone 4/5 of all searches on a smartphone are spontaneous, compared to 52% on PC ~1/2 of smartphone owners use them while watching TV

11 Smartphone Experience Becoming the Expectation in Other Device Categories Always Connected Always On and Up to Date Power Efficient

12 Today s Smartphone Front & rear facing cameras Advanced flash & DRAM technology JEDEC s role

13 Smartphone Momentum Displacing Feature phones 24% CAGR Source: Average of Gartner, Oct. 12; Strategy Analytics, Aug. 12

14 Key Initiatives for Sustained Long-term Mobile Growth 1000X Continue Smartphone Growth and Innovation New Mobile Computing Opportunities Enable Growth in Emerging Regions Solve the 1000X Data Challenge Deliver the Internet of Everything

15 #1 Expanding Areas for Smartphone Innovation CPU Modems GPU Connectivity DSP/Multimedia Sensors Displays

16 2MB L2 (8064 only) Low Power Innovations High Performance Floating Point FlexRender Technology Expanding Areas for Smartphone asmp Web Tech Innovations Unified Shader Architecture 20x Digital zoom Stereo 3D video Custom Krait Custom System Interconnect GPGPU Compute for Imaging/Video (Renderscript, OpenCL, LLVM) Stereoscopic Rendering Accelerated WebGL CPU GPU Profiling Tools 21 MPix Zero Shutter Lag Ultrasound 7.1 Surround Playback DSP/Multimedia 1080P HD video 5.1 Surround Camcorder Computational Camera Noise Browser with HTML5 and 1080p Flash cancellation Innovation LTE World Mode LTE TDD Modems TD-SCDMA RF Multi-band GPS/GNSS.11ac LTE Broadcast VoLTE / SRVCC Advanced Receivers Power Optimization Indoor Location FM BT Miracast Multiband Proximity Ambient light Accelerometer Pressure Gestures Temperature 3D Gyroscope Content Adaptive Backlight Wireless Display Coexistence with connectivity Connectivity Coexistence with WWAN Sensors Displays IR Sensing Humidity Magnetometer MEMS Color correction Frame Buffer Compression

17 #2 Mobile is Redefining Computing High performance computing High resolution screens Responsive devices Fast, always-on connectivity Uncompromising mobility Sleek, ultra-light Long battery life Thermal efficiency Rich multimedia experience

18 New Mobile Computing Growth Opportunities Tablets to lead growth of new generation of mobile computing devices 41% Tablet CAGR ( ) LARGER IMAGES >650M Tablets and Laptops Estimated to be Sold in 2016 Tablets: Average of Gartner, Dec. 12; Strategy Analytics, Jan. 12;

19 Connectivity is Key in New Mobile Computing Devices Embedded and external mobile broadband in new mobile computing devices 2x Growth in unit shipments Dongle & MiFi: Gartner, Oct. 12; ABI, Oct. 12; Embedded M-PCs: Average of Aug. 12; SA, Jul. 12 Gartner, Sep. 12; Tablets: Average of SA, Sept. 12; Gartner, Sep. 12

20 #4 Mobile Data Traffic Growth GLOBAL DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH ~2x FROM * PREPARING FOR 1000x DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH 1000X Solution Components More Spectrum Small Cells Network Efficiency *Source: Cisco, Feb. 11

21 Small Cells Everywhere Low cost, Small size, and Ease of deployment

22 #5 Expanding Wireless into Other Device Categories Incremental Growth Categories beyond Handsets Non-handset mobile broadband device shipments expected to grow at ~20% CAGR from Sources: CAGR is based on average of Gartner, Strategy Analytics, IDC, ABI from Mar. Oct. 12. Devices include USB modems, embedded notebooks/netbooks, mi-fi routers, tablets, e-readers, gaming consoles, CE devices (portable navigation devices, portable media player, digital still cameras, digital camcorders), and M2M (telematics, utilities, security, tracking, healthcare, retail).

23 The Connected Home Everything around us is becoming intelligent & connected; Wireless & Wired

24 Internet of Everything Everything around us is becoming intelligent & connected; Wireless & Wired

25 IoE Verticals Everything around us is becoming intelligent & connected; Wireless & Wired Automotive Industrial Health & Fitness Home

26 Key Technology Trends

27 Key Technology Trends Anatomy of a chipset Integration Interface Performance evolution Shared Markets (WWAN, WLAN)

28 A Current Mobile Chipset Apps Processor Modem (cellular) Connectivity Wireless & Wired Peripherals Memory & Multimedia Courtesy MIPI Alliance (Mobile Industry Processor Interface)

29 An Integrated Apps Processor

30 An Integrated Apps Processor

31 A Multi-mode Modem Complexity Requirements & Interfaces WWAN Frequency diversity Carrier Aggregation WWAN LTE Cat 7+ WLAN abgn +ac +ad +af (WS) +ah (M2M) WWAN/WLAN Coexistence and seamless connectivity Interfaces WWAN 500Mbps WLAN 1000Mbps Migration to SerDes based interfaces

32 Mobile Industry Interfaces JEDEC 25.6 GB/s 51.2 GB/s

33 Link Rate vs. Camera 30fps 8-lane M-PHY G3 MIPI Camera Sensors 4-lane M-PHY G3 Requirements & Interfaces CSI-2/D-PHY (1.5Gbps/lane) CSI-3/M-PHY (1.5, 3.0, 6.0 Gbps/lane) 8-lane D-PHY lane M-PHY G3 4-lane D-PHY lane M-PHY G3

34 3G, 4G, and Multi-mode Modem Applications Mobile Computing Consumer Electronics Internet of Everything Fast, reliable, seamless voice and data performance

35 Connectivity Applications (Wireless and Wired) Mobile Computing Consumer Electronics Networking and Infrastructure Wi-Fi Bluetooth Location NFC Powerline Ethernet PON

36 JEDEC Mobile Memory Challenges & Solutions

37 Mobile Memory Needs Performance Power consumption Packaging EMI Cost n * 10 s GB/s Battery life, Thermal POP, MCP radio desense

38 LPDDR Roadmap 51.2 GB/s (4x32) 25.6 GB/s (4x32) 1.6 GB/s (2x32) 3.2 GB/s (2x32) LPDDR1 LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4

39 Storage Roadmap UFS 2.x

40 Physical Size Constraints impose Battery and Thermal Limits

41 Physical Size Constraints impose Battery and Thermal Limits Limited battery life T skin Too hot to touch T junction Internal failure or reboot Finite battery size, and internal heat

42 Battery-life Limit (Computed) Maximum use case run-time vs. power 3000 mah battery 1500 mah battery 3.6V ~ 1500mAh battery ~ 1h life

43 Thermal Limit (Reference model only) Maximum use case run-time vs. power convection radiation No operating here! Thermal effects (limits on the ability to dissipate heat) limit max run-time and max use case power consumption

44 Thermal Limit (Reference model only) Maximum use case run-time vs. power convection radiation No operating here! DRAM Bandwidth (GB/s) Converting DRAM use at a given bandwidth into system power consumption

45 Thermal Limit (Reference model only) Maximum use case run-time vs. DRAM bandwidth (GB/s) In this case, 10GB/s DRAM bandwidth might (due to Thermal dissipation limits) operate for 10 minutes only; and 50GB/s for <2 minutes

46 DRAM Storage Mobile Memory Questions Today LPDDR2 LPDDR3(E) LPDDR4 e.mmc 4.x e.mmc 5 UFS 1.x UFS 2.x Tomorrow Wide IO? SerDes? 100 GB/s? Endurance? Beyond FG? All SSD? 1-10 s GB/s? Performance = Power/Thermal

47 Mobile Memory Needs Performance Power consumption Packaging EMI Cost n * 10 s GB/s Battery life, Thermal POP, MCP radio desense

48 Thank You Richard Wietfeldt, Ph.D. Qualcomm - Mobile Forum 2013 Copyright 2013 Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.