Korea Semiconductor Test Now and the Future Tim Moriarty

Transcription

1 . Korea Semiconductor Test Now and the Future Tim Moriarty Vice President, Teradyne, Inc. President, Nextest Systems Corp. June, 2009

2 Key Note Topics Does Test Matter? Korea Today as a Leader Joint Innovation - Collaboration

3 Do We Need to Test? Do we need test? Test is the bottleneck to your company s Revenue Test is perceived to be expensive Does Marketing push for Differentiated Designs? Do Designers push the margins of their designs? Does the design push the capability of the process?

4 Electronics Market Will Will Planes get get off off the the ground, Stay in in the the air, air, or or Land safely? Will Will computers crash? 18.2% What if if Cell Cell phones were not not reliable? ATE What if if GPS systems misguided you? Market % What if if cars cars won t start or or in in the the future charge properly? Are Are entertainment devices relaxing or or frustrating?

5 Electronics Market 18.2% ATE Market % Yes! Testing Matters! You Matter! - - A life is is not important except in in the -impact it it has on on other lives -Jackie Robinson

6 Electronics, Semiconductor, and ATE Markets (5 yr Avg) 18.2% ATE Market %

7 Key Note Topics Does Test Matter? Korea Today as a Leader Joint Innovation - Collaboration

8 World Wide Semiconductor Market $M 300, , , ,000 Opto & Discretes Memory Memory 19% 2008 Semiconductor Market Opto/Discrete 10% 100,000 50,000 0 Non- Memory Non-Memory 71% Market Growth CAGR CAGR Non-Memory 2.1% 7.2% Memory -1.2% 1.7% Opto & Discretes 0.8% 7.1% Semi Total 1.3% 6.1% 14% World Wide Semiconductor Market 70% SOC in % Average Growth up to 2007 Semi Market decline from 2008 * Source: Gartner Q1/2009.

9 Semiconductor Market Segmentation (2008) Total Semi Market : $256.3B Memory IC Market: $48.4B (19%) Non-Memory IC Market: $182.0B ( 71%) Semiconductor USD 256.3B (100%) (Market size, % total) IC (US$230.0B US$230.0B,, %) Discrete (USD16.8B USD16.8B, 6.6%) Opto (USD 9.6B, 3.7%) Logic (USD 116.4B, 45.4%) Memory (USD 48.4B, 18.7%) Micro (USD 48.4B, 18.9%) Analog (USD 17.2B, 6.7%) DRAM (USD 24.4B, 9.5%) SRAM (USD 1.4B, 0.5%) NAND Flash (USD 13.0B, 5.1%) NOR Flash (USD 5.9B, 2.3%) EEPROM (USD 1.2B, 0.5%) Others (USD 2.2B, 0.8%) Korea Focused on and Dominates Memory! Source : Gartner 2008

10 Korean Semiconductor Market (2008) Korea s Memory Market Share #1 Korea s Non-Memory Market Share #4 Europe 10.8% Korea Korea 9.7% 9.7% US 21.6% Europe 6.0% Korea Korea 41.0% 41.0% Europe 11.0% Korea Korea 2.7% 2.7% US 48.5% Total Semi Production Others 9.6% Japan 21.4% Others 20.8% Memory IC Production Japan 10.6% US 59.0% SOC Production Japan 20.2% Others 7.1% Total Semi Share : 9.7% 24.8 USD Billion Memory IC Share : 41.0% 19.4 USD Billion SOC Share : 2.7% 4.8 Billion USD Source : Gartner Q1 2009

11 The call to action that we all can be successful!! Today there are 6.7B people in the World, here in Korea there are 50M You are Responsible for Greater than 40% of the Worlds Memory Semiconductors and 10% of all Semiconductors in the World. An Incredible Achievement to Date! We are here to help you with your amazing endeavor!

12 Automatic Test Market: World Wide (SOC and Memory) Worldwide ATE Bookings: Memory and SOC (SEMS 4/09) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 $1000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 MEMORY 1,794,106 1,399,065 1,538,230 1,335, ,860 SOC 2,382,672 2,550,134 2,623,206 2,075,299 1,692,018 SEMS 4/09 More than 12,000 ATE employees dedicated to Korean semiconductor manufacturers success

13 Automatic Test Market: Korea SEMS Korea ATE Bookings 900, , , ,000 $ , , , , ,000 - Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 MEMORY 625, , , , ,297 SOC 150, , , , ,407 SEMS 4/09

14 Korea ATE Buy Rate 2008 Total Device Revenue Korea Share Korea Device Revenue Korea ATE Memory $47,976M 41% $19,670M 219M SOC $181,947M 2.7% $4,913M 136M Korea ATE Buy Rate 1.1% 2.8% - Korea Memory ATE buy rate decreasing over time - Korea SOC ATE investment at higher rate vs. Memory - Industry buy rate near 1.5% for 2008, declining to 1% in 2009 SEMS 4/09 Gartner 1Q09 VLSI 2009

15 Key Note Topics Does Test Matter? Korea Today as a Leader Joint Innovation - Collaboration

16 The Beginning - Observations Korea spent less on Memory ATE - Parallelism and Efficiency increases 1TD probe DFT - Pin sharing Memory Test Parallelism doubles every 3 years Memory ATE price per DUT has declined due to Integration & Parallelism SOC - Performance & Integration (analog, digital) & now parallelism SOC Test Equipment requires diversity & Flexibility of Instrumentation on Common Platforms

17 Memory Test Parallelism

18 The Beginning of Joint Innovation: Future Memory trends: 3P s Performance: Parallelism: Packaging: Memory Test Challenges: DRAM speed drives ATE cost increase Parallelism limited by interface equipment: 1 Touch Probe Card Parallelism limited by die count Handler Parallelism limited by throughput and index time Multi-chip integration drives ATE feature set complexity and performance

19 The Beginning of Joint Innovation: Future SOC Trends: SOC Parallelism Increase for Lower Test Cost ATE Flexibility for Different Device Coverage on Common Platform SOC Test Challenges: Higher level of integration for new instruments to meet parallelism goals New ATE required for Fusion Devices (Memory + SOC + Analog + RF+ ) Common Platform needed for multi-generations and multiple device type Integration Headache!

20 The Beginning of Joint Innovation: Collaboration Collaboration between Suppliers and Customers Define Desired Outcome over time Quality, Cost, Performance Mutual Time to Market Goals Reasons for Collaboration: Focused solutions Vs. General Purpose Shortened ATE Instrument Development Cycles for faster time to market Base Platforms should have more longevity Unique Configurations for different markets Platform development cycle: Comprehend several instrument generations

21 Summary Market Bottoming Growth Ahead! Collaboration on Innovation Fosters the Best Economics & Time to Market Demands Test Matters Test Impacts Other s Lives

22 Thank You!

23 Back Up

24 Automatic Test Market: World Wide by Region SEMS Total ATE Worldwide Bookings 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 SEMS 4/09 - Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Korea % 19% 17% 14% 17% 17% ROW 704, , , , ,884 CHA 151, , , , ,034 TAI 810, , , , ,690 KO 776, , , , ,704 US 595, , , , ,113 JA 858, , , , ,097 EU 279, , , , ,356

25 Automatic Test Market: World Wide (Memory) SEMS Memory Worldwide Bookings 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 $1000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 SEMS 4/09 - Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Korea % 35% 38% 30% 31% 57% ROW 184,801 63,273 75,548 21,842 19,769 CHA 58,847 45,445 83,697 75,916 12,868 TAI 374, , , ,894 28,895 KO 625, , , , ,297 US 131, , , ,867 52,346 JA 338, , , ,855 48,303 EU 79,595 67,528 55,932 43,561 6,382

26 Automatic Test Market: World Wide (SOC) SEMS SOC ATE Worldwide Bookings 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 $1000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 SEMS 4/09 - Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Korea % 6% 6% 4% 8% 8% ROW 519, , , , ,115 CHA 92,953 88, ,561 91, ,166 TAI 435, , , , ,795 KO 150, , , , ,407 US 463, , , , ,767 JA 520, , , , ,794 EU 199, , , , ,974