Consensus Forecast for 2007 William Strauss
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1 Consensus Forecast for 2007 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
2 Winners of last year s Economic Outlook Symposium forecast Best Overall Economic Forecast: Bernard Paniak BJP Economics Real GDP: Ken Mayland Clearview Economics Inflation: Robert DiCianni Mittal Steel USA, Inc. Unemployment Rate: Thomas Guthrie FM Fincorp Bernard Paniak - BJP Economics
3 Review of past performance
4 While more volatile, real GDP growth was accurately forecast Real GDP percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
5 As has been the case for the past three years, the unemployment rate was lower than predicted Unemployment rate percent '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
6 The business investment sector growth was accurately forecast Business fixed investment percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
7 Inventory accumulation was higher than expected Change in private inventories billions of constant dollars '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
8 The industrial sector expanded at a much stronger pace than forecast Industrial production percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
9 Consumer spending predictions were on target Personal consumption expenditures percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
10 While light vehicle sales in the fourth quarter of 2005 and first quarter of 2006 were accurately forecast, the second and third quarter predictions were too optimistic Car and light truck sales millions of units '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
11 The long anticipated decline in housing starts materialized over the past year, although it started later than predicted Housing starts millions of units '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
12 Declines in residential investment were larger than expected, especially in the second and third quarters Residential investment percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
13 Short-term interest rates increased at a slightly more rapid pace than predicted Treasury one-year rate percent '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
14 The increase in long-term interest rates was expected Treasury ten-year rate percent '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
15 The predicted flattening in the trade balance occurred Net exports of goods and services billions of constant dollars '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
16 The dollar lost more value than forecast J.P. Morgan trade weighted dollar '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
17 Inflation was anticipated to ease over the past year, but it experienced significant volatility Inflation rate (CPI) percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
18 This in large part was due to a much higher path for oil prices than predicted Oil prices - West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
19 Forecast for 2007
20 Median forecast of GDP and related items (page 1 in the Consensus Forecast book)
21 Median forecast of GDP and related items (page 1 in the Consensus Forecast book)
22 GDP growth is expected to rise through 2007 from 2.4% in the current quarter to 3.1% by the end of next year Real GDP percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
23 This somewhat slower growth for the economy will lead to the unemployment rate edging higher over the next year Unemployment rate percent '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
24 Business fixed investment growth is forecast to slow from a very strong 7.9% rate this quarter to a still strong 5.6% in the second half of next year Business fixed investment percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
25 Inventories are anticipated to expand, but at a pace that will continue the fall in the inventory to GDP ratio Change in private inventories 150 billions of constant dollars '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
26 After a downbeat current quarter, industrial output growth is forecast to gradually improve to 3.1% by the end of next year Industrial production percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
27 Consumer spending growth is expected remain solid at just under 3.0% next year Personal consumption expenditures percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
28 Vehicle sales are forecast to decrease slightly, averaging 16.4 million units during next year Car and light truck sales millions of units '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
29 Housing starts are forecast to continue to weaken through the first quarter reaching 1.6 million units and then hold steady at that pace for the rest of the year Housing starts millions of units '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
30 This predicted flattening in housing starts is also evident in the path of residential investment Residential investment percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
31 Short-term interest rates are predicted to edge lower next year Treasury one-year rate percent '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
32 Ten-year interest rates are expected to edge higher Treasury ten-year rate percent '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
33 The trade balance is forecast to remain at existing levels Net exports of goods and services billions of constant dollars '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
34 The dollar is forecast fall moderately J.P. Morgan trade weighted dollar '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
35 Oil prices are anticipated to remain at current levels Oil prices - West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
36 Inflation is forecast to remain fairly stable at around 2.5% Inflation rate (CPI) percent change, annual rate '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
37 The economic expansion will continue into 2007, representing the sixth consecutive year of the expansion With growth just below potential, the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher Inflation is anticipated to remain stable at 2.5% Most key GDP components are predicted to expand at a more moderate pace in 2007 with residential investment declining at a slower pace than in 2006 Light vehicle sales are forecast experience a slight pull-back next year, selling 16.4 million units Housing starts are expected to fall to the lowest rate since Summary
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