UNC. February 18, Robert M. White, Jr. CRE, FRICS

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1 UNC February 18, 2010 Robert M. White, Jr. CRE, FRICS

2 The Roller Coaster Decade US Annual Property Sales office, industrial, apartment, retail properties $5 million and greater Billions $500 $450 Individual PortFolio $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $

3 The Roller Coaster Decade Billions $10 $9 North Carolina Annual Property Sales office, industrial, apartment, retail properties $5 million and greater $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $

4 Investment Looking Up US Quarterly Property Sales office, industrial, apartment, retail properties $5 million and greater Billions $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

5 Outlook for Fundamentals Still Poor Fundamentals remain poor and are expected to stay that way in 2010, but most buyers have already priced that in.

6 The Vultures Are Frustrated % of Sales Associated with Distress 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1 '07 (All Props by #, rolling 6 month avg) ' '

7 Property Prices '07 Moodys/REAL Price Index All Property Types - Monthly ' '

8 Cap Rates 9.5% Apartment Office Retail US NC Apts 10.2% 10.4% 9.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.4% 8.5% 9.2% 9.2% 8.0% 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 7.5% 8.5% 7.7% 7.7% 7.0% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 6.5% 7.6% 7.2% 7.1% 6.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 5.5% 7.0% 6.7% % '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 6 6% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% US NC Office '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% US NC Retail '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

9 A Two-Tiered Market Investment trends and pricing will continue to diverge between stabilized, cash flowing properties (Core) and those that aren t (Value-Add/Distressed).

10 Equity Capital is Not the Problem

11 REITs to Dominate Acquisitions in 2010 $7 REIT Equity Issuance $45 CMBS Issuance $6 $40 $35 $5 $30 $4 $25 $3 $20 $2 $15 $10 $1 $5 $ $

12 Foreign Interest in US Property Currently High

13 Debt Capital A Slow Thaw

14 How Big Is The Problem? $100 Monthly Property Acquisitions & Refinancings $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Refinancing* Acquisition $0 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Change in Property Prices Moody's/REAL CPPI % Change to Nov % -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

15 Distress Continues to Increase

16 Relative Distress by Market Graphs illustrate the estimated dollar value of the distressed situations (bars) as well as the relative size of the distress compared to the size of each market (diamonds). Market activity is based on the total transaction volume in each market from the past four years.

17 Recovery Rates Recovery Rates on Defaulted Commercial Mortgages (before costs and expenses)

18 Work-out Strategies Kicking the can down the street Pretend & Extend A rolling loan gathers no loss Pray & Delay

19 Rest of the Globe Already Rebounding Property Sales Property Yields Billions Americas EMEA AsiaPac $ % Americas AsiaPac EMEA $ % $ % $ % $80 7.0% $60 6.5% $40 6.0% $20 5.5% $0 1 ' ' ' % 1 ' ' '

20 Conclusion 2010 will be much better than 2009