Status of the Mems industry. JC Eloy.

Transcription

1 Status of the Mems industry. JC Eloy 2004

2 Presentation of YOLE Développement First market research company in the Mems/micro technologies fields 15 consultants based in : Lyon (France, headquarters) Frankfurt (Germany) Cambridge (United Kingdom) Worldwide activities Two different activities : Custom strategic and marketing analysis Multi-customer report

3 Reports available Edition of reports analysing the technical and economical trends in specific areas : World Mems fab 2004 : Excell database describing all Mems manufaturers worldwide (300 Profiles, July 2004, 1500 Euro) World inertial sensor Markets : report analysis the Mems inertial sensor markets and applications, manufacturing organisations and products on the market (paper report and 20 profiles, January 2004, 2900 Euro) Status of the Mems industry : report analysis the Mems industry and applications, evolution of the business models and analysis of the top 30 Mems manufacturers (paper report and 20 profiles, June 2004, 1900 Euro)

4 MEMS Supply chain size MEMS systems 24 B$ 38.1 B$ MEMS components 3.35 B$ 5.36 B$ Materials & chemicals Front-end Equipments 1.03 B$ 1.5 B$ Mat & chem: 561 M$ Wafers: 467 M$ 240 M$ 400 M$ Mat & chem: 819 M$ Wafers: 682 M$

5 MEMS component market size MEMS components market volumes in M$ RF MEMS Bio & Microfluidics comp. MOEMS Gyroscopes Accelerometers DLP (µ-mirrors) P sensors Inkjet Head

6 Airbag sensor overview Application specifications : +/- 50g, auto-calibration and self-test, integration of multi-axis sensing for front shock detection Integration from 1 to 5 airbag sensors per car, for several axis of detection Price of 1 axis sensor : <2$ Price of 3 axis sensor : 5 to 6 $ Today pricing and trends : 2003 : 100 Munits, ASP 2$, total market 200 M$ 2005 : 120 Munits, ASP 1.6$ to 1.9$, total market 192 M$ Market shares 2003 : ADI : 27%, 24 Munits Motorola : 15%, 10 Munits Bosch : 35%, 35 Munits Delphi : 9%, 9 Munits Denso : 8%, 8 Munits Business trends : More sensors in order to have focused activation of airbags Integration of several axis of detection in one packaged sensor Accelerometers : update 2003

7 New application : Mobile phone opportunity Application : Detection of the position of the mobile phone for : Silent mode activation Game controller Human/machine interface Need of 2 axis or 3 axis sensor Digital output Price target : 3 axis sensor for less than 4 $?! Nokia and Samsung seem to be the most interested system manufacturers No volume expected before 2006 : Estimation of 10 Munits in 2006 and 20Munits in Accelerometers : update 2003

8 New applications The existing applications are growing : Automotive sensors Micro mirrors for projection systems Ink jet heads But few possible high growth markets are appearing : RF Mems : certainly some business opportunities but it will be certainly under the roof of the semiconductor companies using Mems above IC technology Accelerometer/gyro : possible new business opportunities in mobile phone Silicon microphone : business potential for hearing heads and mobile phone but what is the added value for such a low price target?

9 700,0 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0, Top 30 Mems manufacturers (2003 ranking) MEMS Sales 2003 in M$ - for first level packaged devices - YE* are Yole estimated figures BOSCH (YE*) EPSON (YE*) LEXMARK (YE*) ANALOG DEVICES (YE*) BEI SENSORS DELPHI DELCO (YE*) DENSO (YE*) MOTOROLA (now FREESCALE) HONEYWELL (YE*) OMRON SSS (YE*) BAE SYSTEMS INFINEON (YE*) CANON (YE*) OLIVETTI I JET VTI TECH. DALSA SC MATSUSHITA ELEC. (YE*) AGILENT TECH. MURATA (YE*) COLIBRYS ULIS HL PLANAR SMI / ELMOS APPLIED MEMS (YE*) MICRALYNE MEMSCAP IMT HP (YE*) TI (YE*)

10 Different MEMS business Models There are currently 7 different business models for MEMS companies Business models Components manufacturers Design companies System manufacturers Contract manufacturers Colibrys, Micralyne, Tronic s, Memscap Foundries (Walshin, ) «Off-theshelf» MEMS components (AD, STM, Motorola ) Fabless Fabless (Coventor (Akustica ) Integrated Integrated Fab Fab(Gyros, (Gyros, Bosch, Auxitrol, Auxitrol, Honeywell Honeywell ) ) Engineering & Design (Lionix ) External MEMS fab with internal R&D (BMX )

11 Key challenges per business models Systems manufacturers with internal Mems fab : Normal system business growth How to optimise the cost/revenue ratio of a Mems fab in a system companies? Is it possible to subcontract the Mems manufacturing? Fabless companies : Is it today a feasable business model? Difficulties to organize the business relationship with a contract manufacturer Foundries : Only few companies are trying to propose foundry services Is it today a feasable business model? Contract manufacturers : Have a fab completely loaded, full of wafers Find new customers/products takes time and money How to integrate system value in a device business?

12 Geographical breakdown of MEMS fabs (in number of Fabs, 366 fabs analysed) North America 41% Rest of Europe 3% United Kingdom 4% Switzerland 4% Benelux 5% France 6% Scandinavia 6% Rest of Asia 9% Japan 12% Germany 10%

13 Since two years, two different movements (1) Strong involvement of IC manufacturers in order to find in the Mems fields new growth opportunities Investment at STM, Infineon, Motorola, Fairchild, Dalsa Semiconductor, Semefab, Elmos, Xfab But : Mems is only sometimes a volume business Mems device development take a long time No standard process Challenges of the Mems above IC process : Evolution of the SC process or of the Mems process? Internal development or acquisition of know-how? Strong differences in product lifetime and technology lifetime

14 Since two years, two different movements (2) Strong investment of Mems companies in the optoelectronic dream Creation of more than 150 companies worldwide and investments in existing companies But : Collapse of the opto business A lot of MOEMS products were just a dream R&D money but no production Packaging and test underestimated

15 The MEMS law : A key problem One product, one process MEMS Market: Analysis

16 MEMS Equipments market 800 In 2005, the second hand equipment market will be 15% of the total market (Yole) 700 MEMS Equipment Market in M$ In 2002, the second hand equipment market was 20% to 30% of the total market Second hand Back-end Front-end

17 Si wafers consumption for components manufacturing Main MEMS applications Si wafers consumption for components production " 6" 8"

18 Next steps of the Mems industry Evolution in the next months : The consolidation in the Mems manufacturers has not ended : still 5 to 7 companies are very week and may end business No new high growth application The Mems above IC approach will bring a lot of new applications, mainly under the roof of IDM Now the system manufacturers with internal fab have the possibility to subcontract the development and manufacturing of Mems devices : Here is the growth opportunities for contract manufacturers

19 For more information Look at our web site : You can register on line for free issues of Micronews. We are launching a specific multi-customer action on theanalysisofmemsequipmentandmaterails markets. Feel free to contact JC Eloy for more information : eloy@yole.fr