Forging Industry Association

Transcription

1 Forging Industry Association Alan s TEC Generic Prosperity in the Age of Decline Brian Beaulieu CEO

2 213 Forecast Results 2 Duration Forecast Actuals Accuracy US GDP 12 $ Trillion $ Dec 99.3% US Ind. Prod (12MMA) 99.6 Dec 99.7% EU Ind. Prod (12MMA) 1.6 Dec 98.7% Canada Ind Prod (12MMA) 97.8 Dec 99.2% China Ind Prod (12MMA) 52.1 Dec 99.5% US Housing Ths Units 923 Dec 97.7% US Retail Sales 18 $2.189 Trillion $2.2 Dec 99.5% US Employment Million Dec 99.7% 2

3 Real Gross Domestic Product Sept June Sept 213 GDPCON 3MMA 12 1 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 ' MMA

4 GDP 2 Forging & Stamping Production Index to Real Gross Domestic Product Forge/Stamp GDP 3MMA Forging & Stamping 3MMA 8 6 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Data Trends 4

5 World GDP, Trillions of US $, Current Prices Trillion US$ Percent of 213 World GDP 5 Source: IMF

6 Forge/Stamp 28 Forging & Stamping Production Index to ITR Leading Indicator ITRLI % 4.2% Forging & Stamping - 12/12-28 ITRLI - Monthly -18 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Forging/Stamping 12/12, Indicator Monthly 6

7 Executive Vantage Point (EVP) for Companies 7 Company A 45 Indicator Company A Indicator - 1/12-21 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

8 R-O-C 4 Housing Starts Mar 13 MMT /12 12/ % 9.3% May MMT 12MMT Dec '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2.2 Millions of Units 8

9 Forge/Stamp 22 Forging & Stamping Production Index to US Industrial Production US IP % 3.7% Forging & Stamping US IP -21 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 12/12 Rates-of-Change 9

10 R-O-C 2 Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft MMT 15 3/12 12/12 8.% 5.% MMT 12MMT $ '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 5 Billions of Dollars 1

11 Construction Machinery New Orders R-O-C MMT /12 12/ % 9.% MMT 12MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 1 Billions of Dollars

12 22 Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Mortgage Rates Federal Funds Raw Data Sources: Federal Reserve Board Wall Street Journal

13 Corporate AAA Bond Prices to the S&P 5 Bond Prices S&P Bond Prices - 3MMA S&P 5 - Raw '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 13 Data Trends Source: Wall Street Journal

14 R-O-C 14 Total Retail Sales (deflated) MMT /12 12/12 3.5% 3.3% $ MMT MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 1.5 Trillions of Dollars 14

15 Production 18 North America Automobile Production to Big Three NA Light Vehicle Production Big Three Automobile Production Big Three 4 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 15 Millions of Units Source: Wards Auto

16 US IP 14 US Industrial Production to Civilian Aircraft Equipment Production Aircraft % US IP Aircraft -52 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 12/12 Rates-of-Change 16

17 Forge/Stamp 3 Forging & Stamping Production Index to General Purpose Machinery Production Index Machinery % 3.6% Forging & Stamping Machinery -28 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 12/12 Rates-of-Change 17

18 Farm Machinery Shipments R-O-C MMT /12 12/ % % MMT 12MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 5 Billions of Dollars 18

19 US IP 12 US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product GDP % % % -5.8% GDP US IP -15.1% '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 ' Year-over-year, Quarter to Quarter (3/12) 19

20 Total U.S. Public Debt The Long View 117.5% (% of GDP) 2

21 Health Care Spending 21

22 Expenditures 2 16 National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods N.O. President Carter Expenditures Orders Orders Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama /12 Rates-of-Change 22

23 U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Declining Net imports as a share of domestic consumption 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 6.3% 59.8% 58.1% 56.8% 51.3% 49.1% 2% 44.9% 4.2% 32.3% 1% % Source: Energy Information Administration

24 The Tip of the Iceberg for Manufacturing Finding a Home in the USA 24 Apple Yamaha Michelin Wham-O Bayer Chemical Caterpillar GE NCR IKEA Rolls Royce Honda Lenovo Airbus Toshiba Toyota Flextronics Siemens 24

25 Percentage % Household Distribution by Income Level 6.3% % 35.4% 3 2 $ -35k $ 35k-2k 1.9% 4.5% Income by Household % in 1967 % in 212 Less than $35, 39.9% 35.4% $35, to $2, 59.3% 6.3% Over $2,.9% 4.5% Source: Source: Census BureauCensus Bureau

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27 Phase Management Objectives TM Preparing for Positive leadership modeling (culture turns to behavior) 2. Invest in customer market research (know what they value) 3. Training programs (people, process, internal metrics) 4. Review and uncover competitive advantages 5. Spend $ on new products, marketing, advertising 6. Improve efficiencies with investment in technology and software 7. Check systems for readiness to accommodate increased activity 8. Add Sales Staff and Hire Top People 9. Lock in costs 1. Judiciously examine credit 11. Work on what s next 27

28 Look for More Opportunities in These Sectors Energy Distribution Housing Water Printed Electronics Distribution/Conservation Exports from U.S. Panama Canal et al Vocational Education Security Regenerative medicine 3-D Printing Food Mexico Natural Resources (Harvesting/Conserving) Entertainment 28

29 8 Must Watch Items ITR Leading Indicator Housing H Starts Bond Market US U Leading Indicator Purchasing P Managers Index Retail Sales Employment E Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders Available from ITR via ITR Trends Report, the ITR Advisor, or on the web 29

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