Winds of Change. Alex Chausovsky Senior Consulting Advisor
|
|
- William Morton
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Winds of Change Alex Chausovsky Senior Consulting Advisor
2 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR around two years ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP % US Ind. Prod % Europe Ind. Prod % Canada Ind. Prod % China Ind. Prod % Retail Sales % Housing % Employment % ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.
3 AHTD Summary September 218 Economic Rise for 2H18 US & Global expansion continues Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed How to track the leading indicators Business Cycle Decline in 219 Some industries will be hit harder than others Global Issues Impacting Businesses Tariffs and Trade Inflation
4 The US Economy
5 2 US Gross Domestic Product 3-Month Moving Average US Gross Domestic Product SAAR, Chained 29 $ 2 9 Quarter-over-Quarter Growth Rate 3/12 Rate-of-Change '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 ' '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 '21-9 $18.5 trillion Phase: B Quarter-over-Quarter: 2.8% ITR Outlook 218: 219: 22: 2.5%.5% 2.7% Source: BEA 5
6 US States GDPs Ranked vs. World Country GDPs Data Sources: BEA; IMF 6
7 US GDP by Consumption Government Spending 17% Business Investment 16% Personal Consumption 67% Percent Sources: BEA, ITR Economics
8 US Industrial Production Index 114 US Industrial Production Index 12-Month Moving Average Year-over-Year Growth Rate 12/12 Rate-of-Change Annual Trend: 15.6 Phase: B Year-over-Year: 2.9% ITR Outlook 218: 219: 22: 2.9% -1.2% 2.3% Source: FRB
9 US IP 12 8 Manage the Business Cycles to Maximize Profits US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product Manufacturing ~ 76% of Industrial Production Mining ~ 14% of Industrial Production Utilities ~ 1% of Industrial production GDP % % GDP US IP -2.9% -5.2% -15.5% '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12) Sources: FRB, BEA
10 % 7.8% Rate-of-Change & Leading Indicators Tools for Seeing the Future -3 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2-45
11 Raw Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul MMT A Powerful Management Tool Rate-of-Change 3/ % 13.6% 13.6% 14.3% 14.6% 16.7% 13.3% 12.8% 1.4% 1.4% 12MMT / % 25.5% 25.2% 22.4% 2.% 18.3% 15.4% 12.7% 3/12 Rate-of-Change = 1 1 = %. 12/12 Rate-of-Change = 1 1 = %.
12 Rate-of-Change A Management Tool 12 5ROC Data Trend '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '
13 Leading Indicators Industry Data 18 May 21 May 211 Leading Indicator December Industry Data - 12/12 ITR Leading Indicator - Monthly ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 The Indicator has a 12-month lead time to the Industry Data Rates-of-Change Sources: FRB, ITR Economics
14 Leading Indicator System as a Powerful Tool US Industrial Production Index to Leading Indicators US IP, JP Morgan 15 PMI, Wilshire, G US IP - 12/12-2 US IP Forecast -1 G7 Indicator - 1/12 PMI - 1/12-4 Wilshire Market Cap - 3/12-15 JP Morgan Indicator - 3/12-6 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 Rates-of-Change Sources: FRB, OECD, ISM, Yahoo Finance, IHS Markit
15 Tax Reform
16 Real Gross Domestic Product Republican Democrat GDP 3/12 3/12 Rate-of-Change Source: BEA 16
17 7% 6% 5% Is Freed Up Money Going to Capex? US Corporate Tax Rate and Gross Business Investment Corporate Tax Rate % Gross Business Investment (% of GDP) Linear (Gross Business Investment (% of GDP)) 17 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% Atlanta Federal Reserve Survey 3% 2% 1% 1% % '6 '64 '68 '72 '76 '8 '84 '88 '92 '96 ' '4 '8 '12 '16 % Percent Sources: Tax Policy Center, FRED 17
18 R-O-C 2 Favorable CAPEX Trend US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft A positive impact from the tax law will show up here 3/12 12/12 8.% 7.9% MMT MMT 12MMT $ ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 5 Billions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 18
19 US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excl. Aircraft) to US Manufacturing Capacity Utilization New Orders 3 Utilization Rate /12 12/ New Orders - 12/12 New Orders Forecast Utilization Rate - 1/12 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 Rates-of-Change Sources: Census Bureau, FRB
20 US Tax Rates and Real GDP Growth 8.% 1.% 9.% Real GDP Growth Rate 6.% 4.% 2.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% Top Marginal Tax Rate 1.%.%.% Real GDP Growth Rate Top Marginal Tax Rate Sources: Tax Foundation, BEA, 2
21 Issues Government Will and Won t Tackle Tax/Exp/Paym $3, $2,625 $2,25 $1,875 $1,5 $1,125 $75 $375 $ Current Tax Receipts Consumption Expenditures Current Transfer Payments Interest Payments Interest $3, $2,625 $2,25 $1,875 $1,5 $1,125 $75 $375 $ Billions of Dollars Source: BEA 21
22 Total U.S. Public Debt The Long View 12.5% (% of GDP) Source: Usgovernmentspending.com 22
23 Trade & Tariffs
24 US Trade Balance for Goods and Services MMT MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of dollars Source: US Census Bureau -85
25 Manufacturing Increasingly Takes Place in Asia 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % % Rest of World Latin America North America 6% 5% 24% South/East Asia 4% 3% 2% 1% 4% Europe % Percent Share of Global Manufacturing, by Value Added Source: Harvard Business Review
26 Leveling the Manufacturing Field Around the Globe Years of 15% to 2% per annum labor cost increases in China without corresponding productivity increases Cheap and readily available energy in North America Aggressive reengineering and automation 24: 15 Percentage Point Advantage The China Advantage? 216: Only 1 Percent Point Difference
27 HBR H3IWO Supply Chain by Rose and Reeves Leveling the Manufacturing Field Around the Globe Years of 15% to 2% per annum labor cost increases in China without corresponding productivity increases Cheap and readily available energy in North America Moving Forward 24: 15 Percentage Point Advantage Robotics Protectionism Politics & Economic Stability The China Advantage? 216: Only 1 Percent Point Difference
28 Ease of Doing Business NZ 1 Singapore 2 Denmark 3 Korea 4 Hong Kong 5 US 6 UK 8 Germany 21 Japan 35 Russia 36 China 75 India 1 Brazil 125 Source: The World Bank
29 1 Tariffs Proposed Auto Imports, 35 6 $ Value 5 4 Proposed Chinese Imports, % Tariff Sep 24th Proposed Russia, 3.2 Chinese Imports Round 2, Proposed Japan, Proposed India, % Tariff Jan 1, % Chinese Imports Round 1, 5 Aluminum, 17.4 Solar Panels, 8.5 Steel, 29 Washing Machines, 1.8 US Tariffs China Round 2, 6 China Round 1, 52.4 Reciprocal Tariffs Turkey, 1.8 Europe, 3.2 Mexico, 2.9 Canada, 12.8
30 Commodity Prices % Steel -2.9% Copper ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24-6 3/12 Rates-of-Change Source: WSJ, London Metal Exchange, Steel Market Update 3
31 US Consumer Price Index to US Producer Price Index % 2.7% Consumer Price Producer Price ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 1/12 Rate-of-Change Source: BLS -1 31
32 Brands That Have or Will Be Increasing Prices Due to Tariffs COCA-COLA WINNEBAGO POLARIS INDUSTRIES WHIRLPOOL GENERAL MOTORS TOYOTA LG ELECTRONICS MILLER COORS SAMUEL ADAMS CAMPBELL SOUP I can't just go to the shareholders and say, 'You're just going to have to accept my profit's going to be $4 million less. It doesn't work that way - Gavin Hattersley, CEO MillerCoors NEWELL BRANDS (CROCK-POT, RUBBERMAID, YANKEE CANDLE, & SHARPIE) KLEENEX & HUGGIES Source: Business Insider, These popular brands say Trump's tariffs will force them to raise prices 32
33 $6 Billion of Goods Subject to Tariffs Aimed at China $25 The US is China s Biggest Customer Exports from the US to China stand at $13.1bn, or.7% of US GDP. Exports from China to the US are a record high $436.9bn, or 3.8% of China GDP. Slowing exports to the US will hurt their economy more than ours but it is not risk free. Downstream Potential InflationUS Consequences Production Job & Profit Loss in Export Supply Chain (to China) Industry Exports US $ bn Aerospace $ 16.3 Soybeans $ 12.4 Motor Vehicles $ 1. Semiconductors $ 6.9 Oil & Gas $ 6.9 Waste & Scrap $ 5.6 Ctrl Instruments $ 5.6 Synthetic Rubbers $ 3.9 Pharmaceuticals $ 3.4 Ind l Machines $ 3.3 Source: US Census Bureau
34 US Top Goods Export by State Based on annual data, 217 Source: US Census Bureau
35 US Machinery Exports by State Exports Value Top 1 State Bils$ 1 Texas $ California $ Illinois $ Ohio $9. 5 Florida $8.8 6 Michigan $7.9 7 New York $6.6 8 Tennessee $6.6 9 Georgia $5.5 1 Wisconsin $5.4 Millions of Dollars Source: US Census Bureau
36 US Vehicle Exports by State Exports Value Top 1 State Bils$ 1 Michigan $ California $ S. Carolina $1.6 4 Texas $9.8 5 Indiana $9.4 6 Alabama $8.4 7 Ohio $7.6 8 Illinois $6.6 9 Kentucky $5.6 1 Tennessee $4.4 Millions of Dollars Source: US Census Bureau
37 Interest Rates
38 ? '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Source: FRB Yield on 1 Year Treasury Note
39 6 FOMC Member Interest Rate Projections Fed Open Market Committee June Longer Run Source: FRB 39
40 Industry Drivers
41 US Total Manufacturing Production Index NSA ROC 15 MMA 16 3/12 12/12 2.9% 2.3% MMA 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 212=1 Source: FRB 85
42 US Machinery Manufacturing Capacity Utilization R-O-C 2 3/12 12/12 7.6% 6.2% MMA MMA 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 55 Percent Source: FRB
43 US Industrial Machinery New Orders R-O-C 15 MMT /12 3MMT 12/12 12MMT 1.8% -.6% ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of $ Source: Census Bureau
44 US Refrigeration & HVAC Equipment New Orders R-O-C /12 12/12 1.4% 5.5% MMT MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of Dollars US Census Bureau 24
45 R-O-C 75 US Engines, Turbines, Generators and other Power Generation Equipment New Orders MMT /12 12/12 7.2% 2.9% MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of dollars Source: US Census Bureau 2 45
46 US Electrical Equipment New Orders R-O-C 3 12/12 MMT 1 3/12 9.2% 1.6% MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of Dollars Source: US Census Bureau 25 46
47 US Material Handling Equipment New Orders R-O-C 8 MMT /12 12/ % 7.4% MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 1 47
48 US Metal Cutting and Forming Machine Tool New Orders R-O-C 15 3/12 MMT / % 13.3% MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of $ Source: Association for Manufacturing Technology
49 North America Robotics New Orders (billions of dollars) R-O-C 1 MMT 5 5 3/12 12/ MMT -1.7% -6.3% MMT '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 Billions of Dollars Source: Robotic Industries Association 49
50 US Market Sectors 219 Outlook Industry Phase Latest 218 YE219F Manufacturing Production Index B 2.3% Machinery Manufacturing Capacity Utilization B 7.6% Industrial Machinery New Orders B 1.8% Refrigeration and HVAC Equipment New Orders B 5.5% Power Generation Equipment New Orders C 7.2% Electrical Equipment New Orders B 1.6% Material Handling Equipment New Orders B 7.4% Machine Tool New Orders B 13.3% North America Value of Robotics New Orders D -6.3%
51 Summary
52 Business Cycles Phase A - Recovery Phase B Accelerating Growth (Best) Phase C Slowing Growth (Caution) Phase D - Recession Annual Sales are BELOW Year-Ago Levels, but the Rate-of-Decline is SLOWING. Annual Sales are ABOVE Year-Ago Levels, and are GROWING at a RAPID Pace. Annual Sales are ABOVE Year-Ago Levels, BUT the Rate-of-Growth is SLOWING Annual Sales are BELOW Year-Ago Levels, and are DECLINING at a RAPID Pace.
53 Things to Pay Attention to in 219 and Beyond Expect slowdown, then mild negativity in 219 Leverage 219 Lull to Prepare for Rise in 22 Tariffs and Protectionist Policies: Uncertainty Inflationary Pressures 53
54 9 Day Trial Offer Receive monthly updates on the economy Text TR TRIAL to for a 9 day trial of our Trends Report
North American Wholesale Lumber Association Winds of Change
Alex Chausovsky Senior Consulting Advisor North American Wholesale Lumber Association Winds of Change 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR around two years ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 24 99.7% US Ind.
More informationPetroleum Equipment Institute. A Bend in the Road. Brian Beaulieu CEO. First in Forecasts Since 1948
Petroleum Equipment Institute A Bend in the Road Brian Beaulieu CEO 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR around two years ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 24 99.7% US Ind. Prod. 24 96.8% Europe Ind. Prod.
More informationIndustrial Supply Association Winds of Change
Industrial Supply Association Winds of Change Dr. Alan Beaulieu President 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR around two years ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 24 99.7% US Ind. Prod. 24 96.8% Europe Ind.
More informationGuidance in Uncertain Times. Alex Chausovsky Senior Analyst
Guidance in Uncertain Times Alex Chausovsky Senior Analyst 1 216 Forecast Results 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 15 99.1% US Ind. Prod. 1 99.9% Eur Ind. Prod. 15 99.2% CanadaInd Prod 15 99.6% China Ind Prod
More informationThe Vision Council Winds of Change
The Vision Council Winds of Change Brian Beaulieu CEO Preliminary 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR a year ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP (data through Sep) 24 98.5% US Ind. Prod. (Dec) 24 96.8% Eur
More informationMarine Leadership Alliance Winds of Change
Marine Leadership Alliance Winds of Change Connor Lokar Economist 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR around two years ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 24 99.7% US Ind. Prod. 24 96.8% Europe Ind. Prod.
More information2014 Forecast Results
214 Forecast Results Duration Forecast Result* Accuracy US GDP 15 $16.98 Trillion $16.345 Trillion 98.5% US Ind. Prod. 13 11.5 (12MMA) 14.2 97.3% EU Ind. Prod. 14 1.6 (12MMA) 11.6 99.% Canada Ind Prod
More informationUrban Land Institute A Bend in the Road
Urban Land Institute A Bend in the Road Brian Beaulieu CEO 216 Forecast Results 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 15 99.1% US Ind. Prod. 1 99.9% Eur Ind. Prod. 15 99.2% Canada Ind Prod 15 99.6% China Ind Prod
More informationHydraulic Institute Annual Conference A Good Year Ahead
Hydraulic Institute Annual Conference A Good Year Ahead Dr. Alan Beaulieu President Preliminary 216 Forecast Results 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 15 99.5% US Ind. Prod. 1 99.8% Eur Ind. Prod. 15 99.2% Canada
More informationEconomic Update German American Chamber of Commerce
Economic Update German American Chamber of Commerce Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago October 6, 2015 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist U.S. Real GDP Billions Chained $2009, % Change Q/Q at SAAR $ Billions
More informationEconomic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook Illinois Public Pension Fund Association Hoffman Estates, IL February 16, 217 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago GDP expanded by 1.9%
More informationFISCAL REALITY. Alan Beaulieu, President, ITR Economics
FISCAL REALITY Alan Beaulieu, President, ITR Economics Alan s presentations cover a wide variety of topics including short- and long-term global economic forecasts, regional economic updates, an outlook
More informationValve Manufacturers Association Navigating the Crest
Valve Manufacturers Association Navigating the Crest Alex Chausovsky Senior Analyst 16 Forecast Results 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 15 99.1% US Ind. Prod. 1 99.9% Eur Ind. Prod. 15 99.2% Canada Ind Prod
More informationUrban Land Institute. November Make Your Move. Brian Beaulieu ITR Economics.
Urban Land Institute November 212 Make Your Move Brian Beaulieu ITR Economics Results for 211 2 Duration Forecast Actual GDP 18 $13.525 $13.332 (-1.4%) US Ind Prod. 11 93.1 (12MMA) 93.8 (.8%) EU Ind. Prod.
More informationCEMA Marc Mar h c 2013 Alan Alan Beaulieu ITR E c E onomics ITR Economics
CEMA March 213 Make Your Move: 213-214214 Alan Beaulieu ITR Economics 212 Forecast Results 2 Duration Forecast GDP 12 $13.593 Actuals $13.593 Trillion $13.648 $13.648.4% US Ind. Prod. 31 97.2 (12MMA) 97.2.%
More informationIndiana Hospital Association Winds of Change
Indiana Hospital Association Winds of Change Dr. Alan Beaulieu President 217 Forecast Results If you heard ITR around two years ago 2 Duration Accuracy US GDP 24 99.7% US Ind. Prod. 24 96.8% Europe Ind.
More informationEconomic Update. Automotive Insights Conference. Paul Traub. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago January 18, Senior Business Economist
Economic Update Automotive Insights Conference Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago January 18, 2018 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist Main Economic Indicators Year-over-year Comparison 2015 2016 2017 GDP
More informationLight Vehicle Sales Are We at a Turning Point?
Light Vehicle Sales Are We at a Turning Point? Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago June 3, 2016 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist Overview U.S. Economy (C + I + G + Nx) U.S. Consumer Ability and Willingness
More informationBaird Family Wealth Group
Baird Family Wealth Group Presents: Brian Beaulieu September 7, 216 www.bairdfamilywealthgroup.com Milwaukee 777 East Wisconsin Avenue Milwaukee, WI 5322 414-765-792 Dallas 595 Berkshire Lane Dallas, TX
More informationEconomic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook Midwest Association of Rail Shippers Lombard, IL January 13, 216 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The Great Recession ended in June
More informationEconomic Update Baker College - Flint
Economic Update Baker College - Flint Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago January 10, 2017 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist Main Economic Indicators Year-over-year Comparison Actual 2014 2015 2016 GDP
More informationEconomic Update Birmingham Bloomfield Chamber Breakfast
Economic Update Birmingham Bloomfield Chamber Breakfast Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago February 2, 2016 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist Overview U.S. Economy (C + I + G + Nx) U.S. Consumer Monetary
More informationToday s Vision Tomorrow s Reality. Brian Beaulieu CEO
Canadian Institute of Plumbing and Heating Today s Vision Tomorrow s Reality Brian Beaulieu CEO 215 Forecast Results 2 Duration 215 Forecast Result Accuracy US GDP 18 $16.632 Trillion $16.442 Trillion
More informationEconomic Update Birmingham Bloomfield Chamber
Economic Update Birmingham Bloomfield Chamber Paul Traub Senior Business Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago/Detroit Branch January 11, 2019 The views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily
More informationForging Industry Association
Forging Industry Association Alan s TEC Generic Prosperity in the Age of Decline Brian Beaulieu CEO 213 Forecast Results 2 Duration Forecast Actuals Accuracy US GDP 12 $15.818 Trillion $15.966 Dec 99.3%
More informationReal Estate Forecast 2017
Real Estate Forecast 2017 Twitter @DrTCJ Non-Renewals - Dead on Arrival Mortgage Insurance Deductibility Residential Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Residential Energy Savings Renewables Wind and Solar ObamaCare
More informationConsensus Outlook
Consensus Outlook - 218 Thirty-first Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 1, 217 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The views expressed herein are
More informationFor Every Action There is An Equal and Opposite Reaction Newton Was an Economist - The Outlook for Real Estate and the Economy
For Every Action There is An Equal and Opposite Reaction Newton Was an Economist - The Outlook for Real Estate and the Economy Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Twitter #DrTCJ Mega Themes More Jobs Than
More informationConsensus Outlook
Consensus Outlook - 219 Thirty-second Annual Economic Outlook Symposium November 3, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The views expressed herein
More informationAutomotive Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Automotive Outlook Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center Atlanta, GA August 23, 2017 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Brief Macro Assessment
More informationConsensus Outlook 2018 and 2019
Consensus Outlook 218 and 219 Twenty-fourth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June 2, 217 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The views expressed herein
More informationEconomic Outlook C.F.A. West Michigan Society Luncheon
Economic Outlook C.F.A. West Michigan Society Luncheon Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Detroit Branch May 22, 2012 Paul Traub Overview Economy - GDP The U.S. Consumer Home Prices Inflation Employment U.S.
More informationOctober Machinery Orders
Japan's Economy 13 December 2017 (No. of pages: 6) October Machinery Orders Manufacturing industry shows strong growth trend Japanese report: 13 Dec 2017 Economic Research Dept. Kazuma Maeda Shunsuke Kobayashi
More informationHouston Economic Outlook. Patrick Jankowski
Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski www.houston.org Follow me on Twitter @pnjankowski May 22 10:30 a.m. Hilton Post Oak It s not Christmas but... 5 It s not Christmas but... Population Estimates
More informationHouston Economic Outlook. Prepared by Patrick Jankowski SVP Research
Houston Economic Outlook Prepared by Patrick Jankowski SVP Research Longest U.S. Expansions Tech Boom '91 - '01 120 Current Boom June '09 to Present 114 60s Boom '61 - '69 Reagan Years '82 - '90 92 106
More information76 Million Boomers. 83 Million Millennials 19 to Million Millennials 16 to 35
76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to 35 91 Million Millennials 16 to 35 Top Millennial Population Growth Markets 2005 to 2015 12-Month Population Job Rank City, State Growth Growth 1 Charlotte,
More informationTHE ELECTION, SMALL BUSINESS, AND THE ECONOMY
THE ELECTION, SMALL BUSINESS, AND THE ECONOMY WILLIAM DUNKELBERG CHIEF ECONOMIST, NFIB TWO WAYS OUT, NEITHER DESIRABLE INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT QUARTERLY APRIL 110 100 Index Value 90 80 70 60
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Dr. George Mokrzan Director of Economics. November 9, 2017
The Economic Outlook Dr. George Mokrzan Director of Economics November 9, 217 The Economic Outlook for the Nation The U.S. economy (real GDP) is forecasted to grow at a moderate pace of 2.3% in 218, close
More informationIs the U.S. Losing Its Manufacturing Base?
Is the U.S. Losing Its Manufacturing Base? Rocky Mountain Economic Summit Afton, WY July 10, 2014 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2 The Setup Manufacturing
More informationTed C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Hurricanes U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted 150 145 140 135 130 1.41% Prior 12 Months 2.05 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 125 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
More informationThe Role of the Federal Reserve Metropolitan Research Group UM-D
The Role of the Federal Reserve Metropolitan Research Group UM-D Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago January 24, 2017 Paul Traub Senior Business Economist The Federal Reserve System 1 Functions of the Federal
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK SECOND-LONGEST US EXPANSION IN HISTORY, CAN IT SET A RECORD?
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SECOND-LONGEST US EXPANSION IN HISTORY, CAN IT SET A RECORD? Augustine Faucher Chief Economist Florida School Finance Officers Association Hyatt Regency Jacksonville June 15, 2018 Gus
More informationHouston Economic Overview Presented by Patrick Jankowski, SVP Research Greater Houston Partnership
Houston Economic Overview Presented by Patrick Jankowski, SVP Research Greater Houston Partnership Order of the Day Order of the Day Rig count fell 80% Oil prices dropped 75% Energy layoffs spiked Office
More informationFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago 22 nd Annual Economic Outlook Symposium. Automotive Outlook. Will Shearin December 5, 2008
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 22 nd Annual Economic Outlook Symposium Automotive Outlook Will Shearin December 5, 2008 Ability to Buy Leading Indicators Nov 07 Nov 08 Disposable Income Green Red Household
More informationTed C. Jones Chief Economist. Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
Ted C. Jones Chief Economist Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist When Getting On An Airplane, the Person On the Aisle Always Gets There First Things Change Jobs are Everything Period U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions)
More informationConsensus Forecast for 2007 William Strauss
Consensus Forecast for 2007 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Winners of last year s Economic Outlook Symposium forecast Best Overall Economic Forecast:
More informationCornbelt Economic Prospects for November 7, 2012 Decatur, IL. David Oppedahl Business Economist
Cornbelt Economic Prospects for 2013 November 7, 2012 Decatur, IL David Oppedahl Business Economist 312-322-6122 david.oppedahl@chi.frb.org The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant growth since
More informationASIA SHIPPING OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2016 ASIA SHIPPING OUTLOOK TPM Asia 2016 Mario O. Moreno, Senior Economist, IHS Maritime & Trade +1 973 776 7850 Mario.Moreno@ihsmarkit.com Agenda Asia Shipping Outlook / October 2016 Asia US trade
More informationEconomic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation to Memphis Area Association of REALTORS Memphis, TN April 2, 213 Forecast
More informationReal Estate Forecast 2015
Real Estate Forecast 2015 No Place But Up Interest Rates Rents Prices Real Estate and the Economy Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Stewart Title Guaranty Company Thank Heavens for Global Warming Think
More informationDATA FOR DEVELOPMENT June 13, 2017
DATA FOR DEVELOPMENT June 13, 2017 1 Recent economic developments and outlook 2 Data for development Malaysia s development and its data ecosystem o Data and the public sector- public service delivery
More information2016 Market Update. Gary Keller and Jay Papasan Keller Williams Realty, Inc.
2016 Market Update Gary Keller and Jay Papasan Housing Market Cycles 1. Home Sales The Numbers That Drive U.S. 2. Home Price 3. Months Supply of Inventory 4. Mortgage Rates Real Estate 1. Home Sales Nationally
More informationStatistical Release Gross Domestic Product First Quarter 2012
Statistical Release Gross Domestic Product First Quarter 2012 1.0 Economic performance Provisional estimates for the first quarter of 2012 show that the economy exped by 3.5 per cent over a similar quarter
More informationHouston Economic Outlook. Patrick Jankowski
Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski Houston s Economic Drivers U.S. Economic Growth Global Trade Outlook for Energy U.S. Economic Growth 3 Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth
More informationBusiness Result for the Second Quarter ended September 30, 2017 Regional Market Environments and Projections
Business Result for the Second Quarter ended September 3, 217 Regional Market Environments and Projections October 2, 217 Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. Executive Vice President and Executive
More informationReal Estate Forecast 2019
Real Estate Forecast 2019 Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist The First People Not to Read the Apple Terms & Conditions Prior To Clicking Accept Were Adam & Eve When Getting On An Airplane, the Person On
More informationOklahoma Economic Outlook 2015
Oklahoma Economic Outlook 2015 by Dan Rickman Regents Professor of Economics and Oklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in Regional Economic Analysis http://economy.okstate.edu/ October 2013-2014 Nonfarm
More informationTCL International Holdings Limited FY2000 Review & Outlook
TCL International Holdings Limited FY2000 Review & Outlook Mr. Vincent Yan, Executive Director March 2001 Agenda Company Background FY2000 Overview PRC Economic Outlook Home Appliances IT Business Corporate
More informationOklahoma Economic Outlook 2016
Oklahoma Economic Outlook 216 by Dan Rickman Regents Professor of Economics and Oklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in Regional Economic Analysis http://economy.okstate.edu/ U.S. Real Gross Domestic
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators
Quarterly Yearly Quarterly Quarterly Month-End Quarter-End Monthly (USD) Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Interest Daily GDP GDP per BoP CA IR External Debt Import Trade Unemployment IPI PPI CPI Rates*
More informationWhy Japan? Masashi Nakazono JETRO Genève. Prepared for Handelskammer beider Basel & JETRO seminar on 4 Nov 2016
Why Japan? Masashi Nakazono JETRO Genève Prepared for Handelskammer beider Basel & JETRO seminar on 4 Nov 2016 Copyright (C) 2016 JETRO. All rights reserved. Who are we? Japan External Trade Organization
More informationSony Ericsson continues to invest for future growth
PRESS RELEASE April 23, 2008 Sony Ericsson continues to invest for future growth Q1 Highlights: Year-on-year volume growth of 2% Income before taxes at higher end of forecast R&D investment continues to
More informationNo Place But Up Interest Rates Rents, Prices Real Estate and the Economy
No Place But Up Interest Rates Rents, Prices Real Estate and the Economy But Not Oil Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Stewart Title Guaranty Company Mega Themes More Jobs Than Ever in History Retail Boom
More informationU.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX March 215 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated
More informationHistory May Not Repeat Itself, But it Certainly Does Rhyme* *Mark Twain. An Economic and Real Estate Forecast. Chief Economist, Stewart Title
History May Not Repeat Itself, But it Certainly Does Rhyme* *Mark Twain An Economic and Real Estate Forecast November 5, 2010 Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist, Stewart Title http://blog.stewart.com/ The
More informationthe 3-month period ended Jun.30,2011 July 28,
Financial Highlights the 3-month period ended Jun.30,2011 (Fiscal 2011) July 28, 2011 http://www.hitachi-metals.co.jp E-Mail:hmir@hitachi-metals.co.jpco Performance Overview First Quarter of Fiscal 2011
More informationEconomic Update Michigan Actuarial Society
Economic Update Michigan Actuarial Society Paul Traub Senior Business Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago/Detroit Branch December 5, 2018 The views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily
More informationBusiness Result for the First Quarter ended June 30, 2018 Regional Market Environments and Projections
Business Result for the First Quarter ended June 3, 218 Regional Market Environments and Projections July 2, 218 Masafumi Senzaki Executive Officer President, Marketing Div. Hitachi Construction Machinery
More informationEconomic situation and outlook
Economic situation and outlook ELECTRONICS AND ELECTROTECHNICAL INDUSTRY MECHANICAL ENGINEERING METALS INDUSTRY CONSULTING ENGINEERING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Global and Finnish Economic Outlook Better
More informationThe Outlook for U.S. Manufacturing
The Outlook for U.S. Manufacturing Economic Forecasting Conference J. Mack Robinson College of Business Georgia State University Atlanta, GA November 15, 2006 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic
More informationComputer
2011-2014 Computer 2014.12. Contents 1. 2011-2013 China Computer Export Trend Analysis... 3 1.1. 2011-2013 China Computer Export Quantity Trend Analysis... 3 1.2. 2011-2013 China Computer Export Amount
More informationTextile Industry Challenges
6th Breakout Session: Textile Industry Challenges Dr. Christian Schindler Director General International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) ICAC Plenary Meeting 2013 October 3, 2013 14:00 to 15:30
More informationPRESS RELEASE October 17, 2008
PRESS RELEASE October 17, 2008 Sony Ericsson reports third quarter results Q3 highlights: Break even results, excluding restructuring charges, as challenging business conditions continued C902 Cyber-shot
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators
ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN) Hong Kong (HK) Japan (JP) South Korea (KR) Taiw an
More informationHitachi Announces Consolidated Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2006
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Hitachi Announces Consolidated Financial Results for the First Quarter of Fiscal 2006 Tokyo, July 31, 2006 --- Hitachi, Ltd. (NYSE:HIT / TSE:6501) today announced its consolidated
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators
ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN) Hong Kong (HK) Japan (JP) South Korea (KR) Taiw an
More informationQUARTERLY FORECAST REPORT 1ST QUARTER
QUARTERLY FORECAST REPORT 1ST QUARTER 216 77 Sundial Ave. Manchester, NH 313 E-mail: ptda@itreconomics.com Table of Contents Definitions & Methodology.... 3 MTI Total Sales... 4 Monthly Data Record...
More informationThe Outlook for the U.S. Economy
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy John V. Duca Associate Director of Research and Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Danforth/Lewis Professor of Economics Oberlin College January 2018 The views
More informationTHE STATE OF FREIGHT: RAIL AND INTERMODAL
Larry Gross Partner FTR 888.988.1699 x41 lgross@ftrintel.com @Intermodalist THE STATE OF FREIGHT: RAIL AND INTERMODAL Railtrends Conference Nov 19, www.ftrintel.com www.ftrintel.com 1 11/19/15 DISCUSSION
More informationHouston Economy Update. Patrick Jankowski
Houston Economy Update Patrick Jankowski Worst is over 2 $ Per Barrel NYMEX WTI Spot Price 120 100 80 Avg. Last Week of Oct = $49/barrel 60 40 20 0 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Source:
More informationEconomic Performance and Outlook
1/14/211 From Recovery to Expansion: How and When The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Sh Schar Faculty Chair and University it Professor Director,
More information1Q17 RESULTS M AY / 2017
RESULTS M AY / 2017 Positivo Tecnologia recorded a net revenue of R$453.5 million in, an increase of 20.7% Continuous progress in the diversification of the business, with mobile phones reaching 32.6%
More informationFab Investment Outlook Foundry, Memory and LED. Clark Tseng, Sr. Research Manager, SEMI Vietnam Semiconductor Strategy Summit September 16-17, 20214
Fab Investment Outlook Foundry, Memory and LED Clark Tseng, Sr. Research Manager, SEMI Vietnam Semiconductor Strategy Summit September 16-17, 20214 Outline Fab Investment & Capacity Trend Memory and Foundry
More informationTHE 2014 DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
Download handouts (PDF) : www.mdm.com/slides or info@mdm.com THE 2014 DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK Featuring: Andrew Duguay, Lindsay Konzak and Ranga Bodla January 16, 2014 Produced by: Event Sponsor:
More informationFab Investment Outlook Foundry, Memory and LED. Clark Tseng, Sr. Research Manager Industry Research & Statistics, SEMI
Fab Investment Outlook Foundry, Memory and LED Clark Tseng, Sr. Research Manager Industry Research & Statistics, SEMI Outline Fab Investment & Capacity Trend Memory and Foundry Investment Outlook LED Investment
More informationPRESS RELEASE January 16, 2009 Sony Ericsson reports results for fourth quarter and full year 2008
PRESS RELEASE January 16, 2009 Sony Ericsson reports results for fourth quarter and full year 2008 Highlights: Global economic slowdown leads to contracting consumer demand Previously announced annual
More informationBango Preliminary results
Bango Preliminary results for 12 months to 31 st March 2011 June 2011 www.bangoinvestor.com - Highlights - Business Progress - Financials - Outlook - Supplementary June 9 th 2009 1 About Bango Bango customers
More informationConsolidated Financial Results for the Second Quarter, Fiscal 2018
Consolidated Financial Results for the Second Quarter, Fiscal 2018 Ⅰ. Consolidated Financial Results for the First Half, Fiscal 2018 Consolidated Financial Results for Fiscal 2018 Ⅱ. Supplementary Data
More information2012 Q1 Activity. Paris, April 25, l Jean-Pierre Duprieu l Executive Vice-President l Fabienne Lecorvaisier l Chief Financial Officer
2012 Q1 Activity Paris, April 25, 2012 l Jean-Pierre Duprieu l Executive Vice-President l Fabienne Lecorvaisier l Chief Financial Officer 2012 Q1 activity Paris, April 25, 2012 Sequential activity improvement
More informationGlobal Ultrabooks Market Insights, Forecast to 2025
Report Information More information from: https://www.wiseguyreports.com/reports/3379446-global-ultrabooks-market-insights-forecast-to-2025 Global Ultrabooks Market Insights, Forecast to 2025 Report /
More information2017 Site Selectors Guild State of Site Selection Trend Survey Report
2017 Site Selectors Guild State of Site Selection Trend Survey Report December 2017 www.siteselectorsguild.com The Site Selectors Guild is the world s largest association of business location experts.
More informationthe 6-month period ended Sep.30,2011 October 28,
Financial Highlights the 6-month period ended Sep.30,2011 (Fiscal 2011) October 28, 2011 http://www.hitachi-metals.co.jp E-Mail:hmir@hitachi-metals.co.jpco Highlights Fiscal2010 Fiscal2011 billion, ( ):
More informationKaufman Brothers 13 th Annual Investor Conference
Kaufman Brothers 13 th Annual Investor Conference Craig DeYoung, VP Investor Relations New York, New York September 14, 21 / Slide 1 Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities
More informationIP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific (Executive Summary) Executive Summary
IP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: September 9, 2002 Author Chee Eng To This document has been published to the following Cluster codes: TELC-WW-EX-0423
More informationKenya at the tipping Point?
Kenya at the tipping Point? with a special focus on the ICT revolution and Mobile Money World Bank Economic Team Presentation by Jane Kiringai Nairobi December 2, 2010 Main messages 1 2 Kenya may now be
More informationNigerian Telecommunications (Services) Sector Report Q2 2016
Nigerian Telecommunications (Services) Sector Report Q2 2016 01 SEPTEMBER 2016 Telecommunications Data The telecommunications data used in this report were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics
More informationClick to edit Master text styles. Third Brazilian level Printing Industry Overview Fourth level
Pan-American Day Conference Third Brazilian level Printing Industry Overview reflections on apparent contradictions Chicago September, 10th, 2007 Hamilton Terni Costa 1 Brazilian Economy Overview % Click
More informationSector Rotation Strategies in Asia: Which Sectors Are Best Positioned to Benefit from Recovery?
Sector Rotation Strategies in Asia: Which Sectors Are Best Positioned to Benefit from Recovery? Mark Killion, CFA Group Managing Director World Industry Service Agenda Outlook for in Sectors and Industries
More informationAsian Development Outlook 2011 South-South Economic Links
Asian Development Outlook 2011 South-South Economic Links Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. Assistant Chief Economist Economics and Research Department OECD Development Centre Paris 8 April 2011 Outline Economic
More informationUBS Technology Conference 2011 Franki D Hoore - Director European Investor Relations London, March 10, 2011
UBS Technology Conference Franki D Hoore - Director European Investor Relations London, March 10, / Slide 1 Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
More information