Baird Family Wealth Group

Transcription

1 Baird Family Wealth Group Presents: Brian Beaulieu September 7, Milwaukee 777 East Wisconsin Avenue Milwaukee, WI Dallas 595 Berkshire Lane Dallas, TX Robert W. Baird & Co.

2 ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions. 215 Forecast Results Duration 215 Forecast Result Accuracy US GDP 18 $ Trillion $ Trillion 98.9% US Ind. Prod (12MMA) % Eur Ind. Prod (12MMA) % Canada Ind Prod (12MMA) C$ % China Ind Prod (12MMA) % US Housing Mils. Units Mils. Units 98.1% US Retail Sales 13 $2.248 Trils deflated $2.244 Trils deflated 99.8% US Employment Million Million 99.3% 2 2

3 Flubbers CPI forecast 3Q16 3MMA 1.% v. forecast 2.4% Short-term interest rates forecast 2Q16.219% v. actual.555% 1-Yr Bond Yields Oil prices USIP forecast 3Q % v. actual 1.55% (est.) forecast 3Q16 $6.3 v. actual ~ $45 (est.) forecasted R-o-C stays >zero; actually = Ph D 3

4 Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-15 GDPCON 3MMA 12 1 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 3MMA Source: BEA 1 4

5 US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product US IP 12 GDP % -.7% % -5.3% GDP US IP -15.5% '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12) Sources: FRB, BEA

6 216 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index 216 (Current) Rank Country Index Score 1 China 1. 2 United States Germany Japan South Korea United Kingdom Taiwan Mexico Canada Singapore 68.4 Talent is the most important driver of a country s ability to compete on the global stage 22 (Projected) Rank Country Index Score 1 United States 1. 2 China Germany Japan India South Korea Mexico United Kingdom Taiwan Canada 68.1 Cost competitiveness is the second most influential driver Index Score: 1 = High, 1 = Low Source: Deloitte 6

7 Real Gross Domestic Product Republican Democrat GDP 3/12 3/12 Rate-of-Change Source: BEA 7

8 US, Wisconsin and the Midwest Annual GSP Growth Rate ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 U.S. Wisconsin Midwest 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: BEA 8

9 US to Wisconsin Unemployment Rates July 216 US 4.9% WI 4.2% ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 U.S. Wisconsin Source: BLS 9

10 Milwaukee County to WI to USA Population Trends Overall Population Growth (21-15) Milwaukee County 1.1% WI 1.5% USA 4.1% Source: Census Bureau 1

11 Millennials as a Percentage of Total Population in Urban Areas Rank City % 15 Virginia Beach, VA 24.66% 16 San Diego, CA 24.47% 17 Salt Lake City, UT 23.96% 18 Atlanta, GA 23.94% 19 Indianapolis, IN 23.86% 2 Milwaukee, WI 23.73% 21 Minneapolis, MN 23.64% 22 Houston, TX 23.49% 23 Seattle, WA 23.46% 24 Charlotte, NC 23.44% 25 San Antonio, TX 23.38% 26 Dallas, TX 23.31% 27 Chicago, IL 23.26% Based on Census Bureau 214 projection 11

12 R-O-C 12 6 Milwaukee Construction Industry Employment 3/12 12/12 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis MSA 4.8% 3.7% MMA MMA 12MMA '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Workers Data Source: BLS 12

13 Percent of 215 World GDP by Country 19.6%.9%.9% 1.% 1.% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% Australia 2.9% 3.3% Rest of World 3.9% 4.6% United States Japan 5.6% China 24.5% 15.% *Total 215 World GDP: $ Trillion, US$ Source: IMF, *67% are IMF Estimated Figures 13

14 US States Renamed for Countries with Similar GDPs, 216 Sources: BEA; IMF 14

15 8 Global Leading Indicators % -.8% -1.3% EZ Comp PMI EU Manufacturing PMI JP Morgan Global MFG PMI '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' /12 Rates-of-Change Source: Markit Economics

16 US IP 15 US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator Reported in ITR Trends Report ITR Advisor Indicator Indicator - Monthly US IP - 12/ '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 USIP 12/12 Indicator - Monthly Sources: FRB, ITR Economics

17 US Purchasing Managers Index As seen in /12 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 1/12 Rate-of-Change Source: Institute for Supply Management -5 17

18 Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft R-O-C 2 3/12 12/12 MMT % -4.8% MMT 12MMT $ '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 5 Billions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 18

19 Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index R-O-C 65 MMA 65 6 Raw Data 12MMA '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Above 5 Indicates expansion Source: Institute for Supply Management 45 19

20 Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excl. Aircraft) to Manufacturing Capacity Utilization New Orders 3 Utilization Rate 3 2 1/12 12/ Utilization Rate -3 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 New Orders New Orders Forecast Rates-of-Change Sources: Census Bureau, FRB

21 US IP 1 US Industrial Production Index to US Owner Occupied Housing Inventory Inventory US IP US IP Forecast Inventory '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 ' /12 Rates-of-Change Sources: FRB, Census Bureau

22 US Industrial Production Index to Wilshire Total Market Cap US IP /12 Wilshire / US IP US IP Forecast Wilshire '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 ' Rates-of-Change Sources: FRB, Yahoo Finance

23 S&P5 Stock Prices Index Raw 12MMA Data Trends Source: Wall Street Journal 23

24 Stock Prices Index 2 Eisenhower 3.1% Kennedy 4.6% Johnson 5.2% Nixon 2.8% Carter 3.4% Reagan/Bush 3.5% 2.3% Clinton 3.9% Bush 2.2% Obama 1.4% Republican Democrat Stock Prices Index - Raw Raw Data Source: WSJ 24

25 R-O-C 1. US Retail Sales Excluding Gas Stations (deflated) 3/12 MMT 4. 12/ % 2.1% MMT 12MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Trillions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 1. 25

26 Retail Sales Jewelry Stores -1.2 General Merchandise Stores Clothing Stores Beer, Wine & Alcoholic Beverage Light Vehicle Sales Furniture Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Bldg Materials, Garden, Supplies Online Retailers /12 Rates-of-Change Source: Census Bureau 26

27 Housing Starts R-O-C 4 Mar 13 MMT /12 12/12 8.5% 3.3% May MMT 12MMT As seen in Dec '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Millions of Units Source: Census Bureau.2 27

28 US New Homes Sold R-O-C /12 12/ % 1.6% MMT MMT 12MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 2 Thousands Source: Census Bureau 28

29 Existing Home Sales R-O-C 24 3/12 MMA 13 12/ % 4.2% MMA 12MMA '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 29 Millions of Units Source: National Association of Realtors

30 R-O-C 15 Milwaukee Housing Unit Building Permits Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis MSA 139.8% MMT /12 12/ % MMT 12MMT '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Thousands of Units Source: US Census Bureau 3

31 Wisconsin Housing Price Index Raw 1 1 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 Year over Year % Change Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency 31

32 US US to Milwaukee Median Home Sale Prices Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, MSA $228.3 $227.3 Milwaukee US Milwaukee '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Annual Data Trends Source: National Association of Realtors: Zillow.com

33 US Consumer Price Index to US Producer Price Index % -2.2% Consumer Price Producer Price '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 1/12 Rate-of-Change Source: BLS -1 33

34 Commodity Prices All Others Zinc Tin Lead Aluminum Steel Copper 35.6% Steel 17.8% Tin.9% Zinc 1.8% Lead 1.3% Alum Copper & Steel % Copper '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 3/12 Rates-of-Change Sources: WSJ, London Metal Exchange, Metalprices.com, Steel Market Update -1 34

35 US Consumption of Crude Oil & Petroleum Products to Real Gross Domestic Product Oil Bils Barrels.7 GDP Trils C29$ Oil Consumption - Raw Data GDP - 3MMA Data Trends Sources: EIA, BEA 35

36 Rig Count 1,75 United States Overview Weekly Oil Price & Rig Count USD/bbl $12 1,5 1,25 1, Oil Rigs WTI Price - Shifted 13 Weeks $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 Jan 214 Jul 214 Jan 215 Jul 215 Jan 216 Jul 216 Jan 217 Rigs: Weekly Count WTI: Average Weekly Price Sources: EIA, Baker Hughes $ 36

37 US Crude Oil Production Millions of Barrels per Day Source: EIA 37

38 US Crude Oil Inventories Since January 214 Million Barrels US Commercial Crude Oil Inventories 2 Jan 214 May 214 Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Source: EIA 38

39 US Carbon Dioxide Emissions Feb 1995: MMT Dec 212: MMT '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 47 Million Metric Tons Source: EIA.gov 39

40 US Total Renewable Energy Consumption Quadrillion Btu Source: EIA 4

41 Employment Private Sector Private Sector Employment Growth Job Openings Involuntary Part Time Employment Quit Rate Rising 1.7% C 2.1% C -1.% A Employment Mils of Jobs '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Annual Data Trend Source: BLS 85 41

42 Wisconsin 6 Wisconsin to Milwaukee County Wage & Salary Jobs (number of jobs) Milwaukee County %.7% Wisconsin -4 Milwaukee County /12 Rates-of-Change Annual data through

43 Employment of Age 25 & Over: High School Graduate Compared to College Degree & Above Degree and Above 25 High School Graduate '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 ' Annual Data Trends Source: BLS

44 Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment, 215

45 US Overall Wage Growth Raw Data '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Percent Source: FRB Atlanta 45

46 Wisconsin to Milwaukee County Average Annual Wages Wisconsin 6 Milwaukee County % 2.7% Wisconsin Milwaukee County -2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 12/12 Rates-of-Change Data through Dec

47 Minimum Wage and Supply & Demand Source: Principles of Macroeconomics by Dr. N. Gregory Mankiw 47

48 Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Mortgage Rates Federal Funds Raw Data Sources: Federal Reserve Board, WSJ

49 Expenditures National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods New Orders Expenditures Orders Orders Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau

50 US Industrial Production Index to US Operations and Maintenance National Defense Budget US IP 15 Budget Budget -15 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 5 US IP US IP Forecast /12 Rates-of-Change Sources: FRB, The White House

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