Stuart Revell. Confiden'al for 5GIC Members Only
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1 Revell Confiden'al for IC Members Only 1
2 Agenda 13:30 15:45 Moderator: Innovation Centre, University of Surrey Session 3: Plotting the path to 2020 and beyond As we continue to move forward with the development of technologies and solutions, we move closer and closer to realising the vision of connectivity for people and objects everywhere is universally seen as the target for wide scale rollout, but this is not where the challenge will end it is estimated that technologies will peak in around 2040, so it is essential that the groundwork that is being put in now does not only consider the short term requirements for network rollout, but also looks beyond to the requirements to enable its growth and a sustainable future. This session will plot both the short and long term path to widespread adoption by first looking at the transition period in the lead-up to 2020 and how to best manage the shift from 4G to ; and then to the longer term future and at the challenges and opportunities ahead as we look to ensure a sustainable future. 13:30 13:50 Presentation: From previous generations to : An integrated and robust IoT platform Innovation Centre, University of Surrey 13:50 14:10 Presentation: Next Generation Internet Protocols: & the Internet, finding the best path together Andy Sutton, Principal Network Architect, BT UK 14:10 14:30 Presentation: Toward Deployment in 2020 and Beyond Takehiro Nakamura, VP and Managing Director of Laboratory, NTT DOCOMO, Inc. 14:30 15:45 Panel Discussion: Delivering a sustainable and long-term future Bernard Barani, Deputy Head of Unit, Dir E, Network Technologies, European Commission Ruy Pinto, Group Chief Operations Officer, Inmarsat plc (on behalf of ESOA) Mike Short, Vice President, Telefónica Europe Bashir Gwandu, Chairman, Commonwealth ITU Group
3 What is the IC? Based at the University of Surrey (UoS) in the Institute of Communications Systems (ICS) World s largest academic/industry research partnership & test facility for the development of future Communications. 5m from Enterprise M3 LEP to support: IC test facilities development Step-out IC facilities to SMEs within the region Create Incubation Facilities at key locations within the region Develop links to other LEPs such as Bucks & Thames Valley 58m already invested by industry partners (below) 12m investment from the Higher Education Funding Council. UK based and with significant international connections to China, Korea & Japan EM3 Board link between IC and China Britain Business Council. for GIC Members nly Confiden'al Revell, 5 G H5uddle 26thO A pril 2016
4 Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m) 10,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3G ~10 years to 1 billion 2G ~11 years to 1 billion ~ 20 years to peak 4G forecast ~ 8 years to 1 billion Mar 16 4G ~ 231M Mar 16 3G ~ 1.2B Mar 16 GSM ~ 2.39B 1,000,000,000 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q Source: GSMA 1G 2G 3G 4G
5 Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m) extrapolated to ,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 0 Jan- 00 Dec- 00 Nov- 01 Oct- 02 Sep- 03 Aug- 04 Jul- 05 Jun- 06 May- 07 Apr- 08 Mar- 09 Feb- 10 Jan- 11 Dec- 11 Nov- 12 Oct- 13 Sep- 14 Aug- 15 Jul- 16 Jun- 17 May- 18 Apr- 19 Mar- 20 Feb- 21 Jan- 22 Dec- 22 Nov- 23 Oct- 24 Sep- 25 Aug- 26 Jul- 27 Jun- 28 May- 29 Apr- 30 Assumptions Growth rate and profile follow previous generations to 2020 GSMA forecasts 2020 to 2030 Extrapolated scenario using historical profiles by RTACS ltd. Technology Introduc'on Year Peak Year 2G G G G 2G 3G 4G Total Poly.(Total) Source: GSMA and RTACS Ltd.
6 1G to evolution 1G 2G 2. 3G 4G Phone Service. Mobility to Voice Services (analogue) Phone Service. Digital GSM + Added Security through Digital encryp'on Phone Service 2G + limited data. Short Message En'ty + Packet Services Phone Services + data + new services and Apps Previous G s plus: Packet Service Only + Higher throughput (Data Centric Architecture) Previous G s plus: Greater Consistency & Flexibility in QoS / QoE, transparent to user. Ultra- Dense Connec'vity and Capacity, percep'on of near 100% COVERAGE in all areas Source: hjp:// innova'on- opportuni'es- a- discussion- paper
7 vision, seamless services with perception of sufficient bandwidth and coverage in any context Market drivers and use cases for Competiveness Coverage Capacity Business model CAPEX / ARPU Efficient Spectrum utilisation Explosive digital growth o Businesses o Services o Data Internet of Things / Vertical / Tactile Critical infrastructure Smart Cities Health & Social care Sports & Fitness Travel o Rail o Automotive o Planes Safety & Security Finance / payments Public safety Cyber security through design Extreme video Virtual & Augmented reality Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD Broadcast Foundation for next generation infrastructure Any context On demand Next generation services enabled, abstracted complexity User and/or thing Security, Policy & Control Dynamic services
8 1 2 requirements 1-10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum) 1 millisecond end- to- end round trip delay (latency) x bandwidth per unit area Mobile (Cellular) Access Technology NETWORK INNOVATION (Network of Networks and interworking) Fixed (Satellite, Broadcast, xdsl, Fibre, Wireless) Access technologies Content delivery (CDN edge / user) Content / stored data nodes near to the EDGE and USERS CROSS NETWORK = DIGITAL FABRIC Networks / Management (SDN/NFV) Backhaul and core network connec'vity x number of connected 4 devices Interworking Innova'on enabled through Trials and Test Beds. Including cross boundary Security, Policy, Control, Iden'ty and 5 (Percep'on of) % availability Low capacity, Mone'sa'on 6 (Percep'on of) 100% coverage 7 8 Technology and innovation opportunities 90% reduc'on in network energy usage Up to ten year bajery life for low power, machine- type devices RADIO INNOVATION (including licensed and licence- exempt) <1GHz 1-6GHz >6GHz Leveraging best available exis'ng air interfaces and evolu'on to RAT Developing new technologies and RAT MULTIPLE RADIOS = DIGITAL FABRIC Spectrum usage and management innova'on enabled through trials and test beds. Mul'ple networks, bands and/or air interfaces and control and/or user plane good for control / coverage Medium Capacity, good for control and user plane High capacity, good for user plane MAJOR CHALLENGE - Radical low energy technology evolu'on at mul'ple levels for each area: materials, device, systems and cross network Source: hjp:// innova'on- opportuni'es- a- discussion- paper
9 vision, seamless services with perception of sufficient bandwidth and coverage in any context AC&C (Percep'on of) % availability CIoT - 1 millisecond end- to- end round trip delay (latency) AC&C ALL (Percep'on of) 100% coverage AC&C Availability, Capacity & Coverage CIoT - Cri'cal IoT LP 90% reduc'on in network energy usage HSB High Speed Broadband HSB 1-10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum) LP - Low power nodes and networks MIoT - Massive IoT LP Up to ten year bajery life for low power, machine- type devices HSB 1000x bandwidth per unit area MIoT x number of connected devices Four keys areas: 1. High Speed Broadband (HSB) 2. Network Availability, Capacity & Coverage (AC&C) 3. Massive Internet of Things (MIoT) 4. Critical Internet of Things (CIoT) Underpinned by extremely LOW POWER (LP) User equipment Networks Nodes Components Operating seamless across network boundaries Public Private
10 & IoT scope traditional view Market drivers and use cases for Competiveness Coverage Capacity Business model CAPEX / ARPU Efficient Spectrum utilisation Explosive digital growth o Businesses o Services o Data Internet of Things / Vertical / Tactile Critical infrastructure Smart Cities Health & Social care Sports & Fitness Travel o Rail o Automotive o Planes Safety & Security Finance / payments Public safety Cyber security through design Extreme video Virtual & Augmented reality Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD Broadcast On demand Spectrum and Access Technologies (RAT) Mobile 3G, 4G, WAN PAN / LAN SRD / WiFi
11 & IoT, scope and evolution Network of Networks Vision Market drivers and use cases for Competiveness Coverage Capacity Business model CAPEX / ARPU Efficient Spectrum utilisation Explosive digital growth o Businesses o Services o Data Internet of Things / Vertical / Tactile Critical infrastructure Smart Cities Health & Social care Sports & Fitness Travel o Rail o Automotive o Planes Safety & Security Finance / payments Public safety Cyber security through design Extreme video Virtual & Augmented reality Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD Broadcast On demand Spectrum and Access Technologies (RAT) Mobile 3G, 4G, WAN PAN / LAN SRD / WiFi Broadcast Satellite P to P P to MP SoT Networks, Inter- networking & Backhaul Fixed Access Technology xdsl Cable Fibre
12 Verticals technology pull, network of networks Mobile Fixed / Mobile M2M THINGS Transport & Logistics Business & Financial Services $ Health & Social Care Retail / Logistics Digital Creativity & Information Services Public & Private Portal Government national and regional Smart Living Rural, sub-urban, urban RADIO CORE 1. High Speed Broadband (HSB) 2. Network Availability, Capacity & Coverage (AC&C) 3. Massive Internet of Things (MIoT) 4. Critical Internet of Things (CIoT) FABRIC Cyber - Security by design Standards
13 Network of Networks Design for collaboration across boundaries Next generawon networks recognising that borders exist. Mul'ple network owners Internet not fit for purpose in next genera'on digital world Market Place & Digital Fabric - People and services must seamlessly connect with: Context awareness CoS QoE QoS (priori'sa'on) Security Payment across chain 13
14 Network of Networks Design for collaboration across boundaries INTERNET / BEST EFFORT NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE Next generawon networks recognising that borders exist. Mul'ple network owners Internet not fit for purpose in next genera'on digital world Market Place & Digital Fabric - People and services must seamlessly connect with: Context awareness CoS QoE QoS (priori'sa'on) Security Payment across chain 14
15 & IoT Digital Fabric - Design for collaboration across boundaries Business & Users Market Place AC&C (Percep'on of) % availability AC&C ALL (Percep'on of) 100% coverage AC&C Availability, Capacity & Coverage HSB High Speed Broadband HSB 1-10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum) MIoT - Massive IoT HSB 1000x bandwidth per unit area Network 1 & IoT Digital Fabric Network 2 Network 3 Network. CIoT - 1 millisecond end- to- end round trip delay (latency) CIoT - Cri'cal IoT LP - Low power nodes and networks MIoT x number of connected devices LP 90% reduc'on in network energy usage LP Up to ten year bajery life for low power, machine- type devices
16 Discussion points RADIO CORE FABRIC Access Technologies Non evoluwon and usage Co- existence and interference Spectrum Network EvoluWon Leveraging, connecwng and evolving all ICT assets RAT ready, previous G s and other Air Interfaces Network of Networks Operator to Operator Operator(s) to VerWcal(s) Digital Fabric (Technology) Digital Market Place (Commercial)
17 10,000,000,000 Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m) extrapolated to ,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 0 CORE FABRIC RADIO Jan- 00 Aug- 00 Mar- 01 Oct- 01 May- 02 Dec- 02 Jul- 03 Feb- 04 Sep- 04 Apr- 05 Nov- 05 Jun- 06 Jan- 07 Aug- 07 Mar- 08 Oct- 08 May- 09 Dec- 09 Jul- 10 Feb- 11 Sep- 11 Apr- 12 Nov- 12 Jun- 13 Jan- 14 Aug- 14 Mar- 15 Oct- 15 May- 16 Dec- 16 Jul- 17 Feb- 18 Sep- 18 Apr- 19 Nov- 19 Jun- 20 Jan- 21 Aug- 21 Mar- 22 Oct- 22 May- 23 Dec- 23 Jul- 24 Feb- 25 Sep- 25 Apr- 26 Nov- 26 Jun- 27 Jan- 28 Aug- 28 Mar- 29 Oct- 29 May- 30 Dec- 30 Source: GSMA and RTACS Ltd. 1G 2G 3G 4G Total Poly.(Total)
18 Agenda 13:30 15:45 Moderator: Innovation Centre, University of Surrey Session 3: Plotting the path to 2020 and beyond 13:30 13:50 Presentation: From previous generations to : An integrated and robust IoT platform Innovation Centre, University of Surrey 13:50 14:10 Presentation: Next Generation Internet Protocols: & the Internet, finding the best path together Andy Sutton, Principal Network Architect, BT UK 14:10 14:30 Presentation: Toward Deployment in 2020 and Beyond Takehiro Nakamura, VP and Managing Director of Laboratory, NTT DOCOMO, Inc. 14:30 15:45 Panel Discussion: Delivering a sustainable and long-term future Bernard Barani, Deputy Head of Unit, Dir E, Network Technologies, European Commission Ruy Pinto, Group Chief Operations Officer, Inmarsat plc (on behalf of ESOA) Mike Short, Vice President, Telefónica Europe Bashir Gwandu, Chairman, Commonwealth ITU Group
19 For more information please contact: Revell (M) any Questions? Only 19
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