plansa ! City Council Comprehensive Planning Committee August 28, 2014 ! Presented by: John M. Dugan, AICP Director 2040 Comprehensive Plan Initiative

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1 plansa 2040 Comprehensive Plan Initiative City Council Comprehensive Planning Committee August 28, 2014 Presented by: John M. Dugan, AICP Director Berkeley Denver Los Angeles Sacramento

2 PlanSA 2040 Initiative Unprecedented opportunity in SA Update 1997 Master Plan Policies Expand on Vision presented in SA2020 Translate Vision in objectives that affect built environment Implementable Action Plans Further integrate plans of City & major institutions Move forward together Guide business plans of major institutions San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 2

3 Key Stakeholders City Council Comprehensive Plan Committee Comprehensive Plan Advisory Board (CPAB) Citizen s Planning Institute San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 3

4 DPCD Progress to date Baseline Studies (Completion of all studies anticipated in December 2014) Draft of a Public Participation Plan Researching best practices (on-going) Staff recommendation for Phase II consultant San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 4

5 Current DPCD Activities DRAFT Public Participation Plan Staff review and comment period of Component 2 Study (Future Jobs, Economic Opportunity and Housing Study) Finalize Phase II consultant scope of work & contract Develop introductory video San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 5

6 3-Month DPCD Work Program CPAB assembled and actively engaged in planning process Video complete disseminate Consultant studies complete - December 2014 Policy expert groups engaged in policy development Policy Papers drafted Media campaign underway Meet with editorial boards PSA s Website & social media online San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 6

7 Phase II Consultant Contract Consultant recommendation considered by City Council (tentative) - September Scope of Work being negotiated; will include the following key components: Public Engagement & Comp Plan Website Draft White Papers addressing key policy issues 20 Urban Design Illustrations Draft Document San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 7

8 Committee Discussion San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 8

9 Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2: Summary of Findings Presented to: City of San Antonio Presented by: Andrew Knudtsen and Matt Prosser Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Berkeley Denver Los Angeles Sacramento

10 Project Overview Understanding 430,000 new people in the metro area over the past decade 1.1 million additional people by 2040 (in Bexar County) ½ million new jobs and housing units needed by 2040 Approach Determine where the City has capacity to facilitate growth Gauge where demand for development will occur within the City Determine the ability of the City to influence where growth can go, specifically where can it encourage infill/redevelopment Estimate the fiscal cost/benefit of growth forecast and the City s efforts to influence growth patterns San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 10

11 Project Scope Component 1 Land Supply Analysis Capacity for growth with infill emphasis Barriers to growth Component 2 Development Demand Demand for growth with activity center focus Opportunities to generate infill development Growth Forecast Alignment of components 1 and 2 to generate growth forecast for MPO Component 3 Fiscal Impact Analysis Fiscal impact of development typologies Cost to facilitate growth within activity centers San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 11

12 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 12

13 1.) The Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization forecast that Bexar County will increase in employment by 675,000 jobs by 2040 Bexar County Employment Forecast San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 13

14 2.) Healthcare, education, tourism and military were the major driving industries of the San Antonio economy over the past decade Bexar County Employment by Industry, 2000 to 2012 New % of Avg. Ann. Category Jobs New Jobs Growth Rate ( ) ( ) ( ) Traditional Economic Drivers 80,811 80% 3.0% Industry Clusters and Other Drivers -14,604-14% -1.8% Business Support Industries 25,440 25% 0.9% Community Support Industries 9,664 10% 0.6% Total 101, % Source: Economic & Planning Systems Traditional Economic Drivers: Health Care Tourism Education Military San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 14

15 3.) The Traditional Economic Drivers are forecast to continue to lead the economic and employment growth Forecast New Jobs by Employment Group, 2010 to 2040 San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 15

16 4.) San Antonio is heavily reliant on its traditional driving industries and has had difficulty attracting employment within other industries. Average Annual Wage by Employment Group Opportunities for Economic Diversity Oil and Gas Life Sciences Scientific R&D Creative industries Technology Advanced Manufacturing Aerospace Workforce development through education Workforce attraction through place making San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 16

17 5.) San Antonio has polycentric economic framework with a dispersed set of nodal concentrations of employment. 13 Major Employment Activity Centers At least 50% of new jobs forecast to located in the 13 Activity Centers San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 17

18 6.) Five of the 13 Activity Centers have insufficient land capacity to accommodate estimated growth. Existing Density Demand Capacity Diff Jobs FAR (E ) (F) (F-E) per Acre Equivalent Existing Greater Airport 1, Medical Center CBD Port SA / Lackland 939 2,099 1, Ft Sam Houston 860 1, Stone Oak 667 1, NE I-35 / I UTSA 789 2,463 1, Midtown Need changes to accommodate demand: Higher density of development Increased walkability Increased bicycle access Transit service and access Innovative parking solutions Emerging Hwy 151 / , TAMU-SA 605 2,580 1, Brooks 447 1, Rolling Oaks Total 8,718 14,474 5, Source: Economic & Planning Systems H:\ San Antonio Comp Plan Initial Studies\Models\[ Summary Tables.xlsx]AC Employment San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 18

19 7.) San Antonio is capturing a decreasing share of household growth in the metro area Residential Building Permits, 2000 to 2012 San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 19

20 8.) San Antonio is losing its competitive market position for single family housing development within the metro area Single Family Permitted Units, 2000 to 2012 San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 20

21 9.) Nationally there is a growing preference from home buyers to live in walkable, mixed use communities NAR 2013 National Preference Survey Walk Score by Neighborhood 50 of 386 (14%) San Antonio neighborhood associations have a Walk Score of over 50 San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 21

22 10.) San Antonio has captured 88 percent of multifamily development within the San Antonio MSA since 2000 San Antonio Metro Area Multifamily Permitted Units, 2000 to 2012 Multifamily demand and development is leading to redevelopment within downtown and inner San Antonio Capture of Recent and Planned MF Units by Area San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 22

23 11.) Market trends combined with the land capacity analysis indicate that growth patterns are changing Forecast New Housing Units by Area, 2010 to % of New Units 23% of New Units 22% of New Units 20% of New Units San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 23

24 12.) Ten of the 20 subareas have a lack of residentially zoned land to accommodate the forecast demand for housing Need changes to accommodate demand: Reuse of underutilized commercial and industrial land for residential neighborhoods Expanded market of potential buyers/residents New product types for San Antonio Diversity of housing products/types Increased density of development Increased walkability Increased bicycle access Transit service and access Innovative parking solutions San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 24

25 Quesitons? San Antonio Comprehensive Plan Initial Studies Component 2 Summary of Findings 25