Neighborhood Recovery Rates

Transcription

1 Neighborhood Recovery Rates Growth continues through 2015 in New Orleans neighborhoods Allison Plyer and Vicki Mack, The Data Center Released: July 13, 2015 Ten years after Katrina, more than half of New Orleans 72 neighborhoods have recovered over 90 percent of the occupied households they had before the levees failed. On August 29, 2005 Hurricane Katrina struck and the levees protecting the city of New Orleans failed. More than 40 of the city s 72 neighborhoods were flooded, many with more than 10 feet of water. 1 The surge of water that hit the was so strong it knocked homes off their foundations, and made that neighborhood the focus of much media attention. However, more than 40 other New Orleans neighborhoods also suffered catastrophic flooding, and some neighborhoods that did not flood were damaged by hurricane force winds. All told, 107,379 New Orleans homes were flooded and 26,965 sustained wind damage. 2 Ten years after Katrina, more than half (40) of New Orleans 72 neighborhoods have recovered over 90 percent of the population they had before the levees failed. There are 16 neighborhoods that now have a larger number of active addresses than they did prior to the levee breaches. Fifteen of these neighborhoods largely did not flood because they are in the sliver by the river or on the west bank. Only four neighborhoods have less than half the population they had prior to Katrina, including three public housing sites that have been demolished to make way for new mixed income housing. They include, elopment,, and the Lower Ninth Ward, which was the most heavily damaged neighborhood of all when the levees failed. The, the one of the four that is not a public housing site, is bordered by canals to the west and north. Overall, New Orleans continues to grow 10 years after Hurricane Katrina. The most recent population data from the U.S. Census Bureau are estimates for According to these estimates, between 2010 and 2014, the New Orleans population grew 12 percent, and New Orleans was ranked 28 th on population growth out of 714 U.S. cities with populations of 50,000 or more. 3 Even newer data from Valassis Inc. on households receiving mail suggests the population grew another 1 percent from 2014 to All told, New Orleans households receiving mail have increased by 19,651 since June 2010, with fully 65 of 72 neighborhoods experiencing gains. Neighborhoods most heavily flooded by the levee failures grew the fastest. Most of these heavily damaged areas experienced double-digit percentage increases between 2010 and 2015, including growth rates of more than 30 percent in, Holy Cross,,,,, and Lake Forest. Almost all of the sliver by the river neighborhoods added households between 2010 and The biggest gainers in this section of the city (and the number of households each gained) were the (CBD) (1,355), Treme/Lafitte (545), Lower, which encompasses some of the Warehouse (321), and the (297). Seven neighborhoods lost households from June 2010 to June Of those neighborhoods, five were on the west bank (,,, New Aurora/English Turn, and U.S. Naval Support ). Looking at change from 2014 to 2015, eight neighborhoods gained more than 100 new households: CBD,, Roch, Little, Lower Ninth Ward,, and Treme/Lafitte.

2 2 July 2015 Read Blvd Lake Forest Read Blvd NEW ORLEANS FLOOD EXTENT - SEPTEMBER 11, 2005 Receded Waters September 11, 2005 Neighborhood Boundaries Plaquemines Little Lake & Oaks City Roch Lower Riverside elopment Riverside Source: The Data Center analysis of data from FEMA.

3 3 July 2015 PERCENT OF JUNE 2005 RESIDENTIAL ADDRESSES THAT WERE ACTIVELY RECEIVING MAIL IN JUNE 2015 Less than 50% 50% % 75% % 90% % 100% or greater Little Read Blvd City Roch Lake & Oaks Riverside Lake Forest Lower Read Blvd Riverside elopment Plaquemines Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database.

4 4 July 2015 PERCENT Percent OF of JUNE June RESIDENTIAL residential ADDRESSES addresses THAT WERE that ACTIVELY were RECEIVING actively MAIL receiving IN JUNE 2015 mail in June % % % % Greater than 50% Little Read Blvd City Roch Lake & Oaks Riverside Lake Forest Lower Read Blvd Riverside elopment Plaquemines Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database.

5 5 July 2015 PERCENT CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL ADDRESSES ACTIVELY RECEIVING MAIL SINCE JUNE or fewer or more Little Read Blvd City Roch Lake & Oaks Riverside Lake Forest Lower Read Blvd Riverside elopment Plaquemines Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database.

6 6 July 2015 About Valassis data The Data Center relies on the Valassis Residential and Business Database which must be purchased from Valassis Direct Mail Inc, for neighborhood level tabulations of addresses receiving mail. Valassis is one of only a few companies nationwide that qualifies to receive weekly data feeds from the U.S. Postal Services Address Management Services database. The Valassis Database is unique from other sources of U.S. Postal Service data because it provides address level data. Although the address level data cannot be released to the public The Data Center developed a robust in house geocoding process in order to generate extremely accurate census block and neighborhood level data. The Valassis Database includes active and vacant addresses but does not include no stat addresses. You can find more detailed information in the following The Data Center publications: Plyer, A., & Ortiz, E. (2011, June). Valassis Lists Data as an Indicator of Population Recovery in the New Orleans. Retrieved from This technical documentation includes detailed descriptions of the Valassis, Inc. database including a comparison of counts of active residential addresses between sources of U.S. Postal Service data. Plyer, A., & Bonaguro, J. (2007, June). Using U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics To Track the Repopulation of New Orleans and the Metropolitan. Retrieved from This research note explains why U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics are useful for tracking repopulation in a post disaster context and documents some of the limitations of the data as a measure of repopulation. Plyer, A., Bonaguro, J., & Hodges, K. (2009). Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster. Retrieved from This paper published in an academic journal reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets including USPS data that can form the basis of sound relevant and timely county level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event.

7 7 July 2015 About the Authors Allison Plyer is executive director and chief demographer at The Data Center. Vicki Mack is senior research fellow at The Data Center. About The Data Center The Data Center is the most trusted resource for data about greater New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana. Since 1997, The Data Center has been an objective partner in bringing reliable, thoroughly researched data to conversations about building a more prosperous, inclusive, and sustainable region. The Data Center (formerly known as the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center) became the local authority for tracking post-katrina recovery with The New Orleans Index, developed in partnership with the Brookings Institution. Acknowledgments Caroline Heffernan and Nihal Shrinath provided data and GIS analysis. Rebecca Osakwe provided editorial support. Soenksen provided layout and Southpaw Creative provided design. The Data Center is supported in part by Baptist Community Ministries, blue moon fund, Entergy Corp, Foundation for Louisiana, GPOA Foundation, Greater New Orleans Foundation, Institute for Mental Hygiene, JPMorgan Chase Foundation, Methodist Health Systems Foundation, RosaMary Foundation, Patrick F. Taylor Foundation, United Way of Southeast Louisiana, Walton Family Foundation, Zemurray Foundation, and data users like you. References 1. Overview of Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans. (July 2006). In Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast. Mitigation Assessment Team Report. Building Performance Observations, Recommendation, and Technical Guidance (Chapter 8).FEMA 549. Retrieved from media-library-data/ /549_ch8.pdf. 2. Current Housing Unit Damage Estimates. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. (2006, February 12). Retrieved from com/reports/katrina_rita_wilma_damage_2_12_06 revised.pdf. 3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. (May 2015). Cumulative Estimates of Resident Population Change for Incorporated Places of 50,000 or More in 2010, Ranked by Percent Change: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 [Data file]. Retrieved from jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=pep_2014_pepcumchip.us12a&prodtype=table.