Follow the Yellow Brick Road Roadmaps for Digital Storage

Transcription

1 Follow the Yellow Brick Road Roadmaps for Digital Storage Thomas Coughlin Coughlin Associates Presented at the THIC Meeting at the Sony Auditorium, 3300 Zanker Rd, San Jose CA April 20,2005

2 Outline Storage Market Growth and Storage Hierarchy Disk Drive Technology Roadmap Magnetic Tape Technology Roadmap Optical Disk Technology Roadmap Flash Memory Technology Roadmap Other Technology Conclusions Sources 2005 Coughlin Associates 2

3 Market Segments High Performance Enterprise Storage Arrays Static Content Storage Arrays Blade Storage Desktop and Laptop Storage Consumer Electronics Static Mobile Home Networking 2005 Coughlin Associates 3

4 Competition in the Storage Blade Systems Hierarchy 2.5-inch HDD vs solid state drive for boot and scratch memory Blade level boot vs. SAN boot Mobile Consumer Electronics Trade-offs between using semiconductor flash mass storage vs. SFF HDDs How will digital storage be integrated into consumer electronics? 2005 Coughlin Associates 4

5 2005 Coughlin Associates 5

6 A Mobile Storage Hierarchy Not included here: power and size or optical storage Capacity Hard Disk Drives Data Rate Nobody wants to be here! Flash Memory Environmental Performance 2005 Coughlin Associates 6

7 The Universe Storage Hierarchy 50 Tbpsi X Magnetic recording technology may allow up to 50 Tb/in 2 (50 X b/in 2 ) Source: Information in the Holographic Universe, August 2003 Scientific American 2005 Coughlin Associates 7

8 Natural Information Preservation (70 M Year Old T. Rex Soft Tissue) Dinosaurs Had White Meat! 2005 Coughlin Associates 8

9 HDD Market Niche Projections Units in thousands 700, , , , , ,000 Mobile CE Desktop Enterprise ATA Enterprise 100, Coughlin Associates 9

10 HDD Form Factor Projections 700, ,000 1 inch or less 1.8 inch 2.5 inch 3.5 inch Units (in thousands) 500, , , , , Coughlin Associates 10

11 CE Drive Applications Units in thousands 300, , , , ,000 Cell Phones Automotive Digital Still Camera Digital Video Camera AV Players PVR/DVR/STB/Home Network Games Other CE 50, Coughlin Associates 11

12 Disk Drive Technology Roadmap

13 1, HDD Quarter by Quarter Public Technology Demonstrations and Product Announcements Compared to Toshiba MLC Flash Numbers HDD Technology HDD Product MLC Flash HDD Tech Trend HDD Prod Trend Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Coughlin Associates 13 Areal Density in Gbpsi.

14 Projected Areal Densities and Recording Technologies in Production Hard Disk Drives (Source: Coughlin Associates) GB Areal Density SAF Media/GMR Perpendicular Media/GMR/TMR Patterned Media/HAMR GB/disk, Gb/in H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H Coughlin Associates 14

15 Perpendicular Recording Illustration from Seagate Perpendicular Recording improves thermal stability of recording, thus increasing areal density Development of perpendicular recording systems could cause an increase in areal density growth similar to that with the introduction of the MR head in the early 1990s We could find areal density growth in the next few years again exceeding 60% annually Not all companies will convert to perpendicular recording at once, still life left in longitudinal recording 2005 Coughlin Associates 15

16 FEATURE DIMENSION (nm) Head Features (100%) Head Features (60%) Head Features (30%) IC (MPU Printed Gate) IC (DRAM Half Pitch) PRODUCT YEAR 2005 Coughlin Associates 16

17 Projected Capacity vs. Form Factor 2-Sided Storage Capacity (GB) mm 65 mm 48 mm 27 mm 21 mm 2005 Coughlin Associates

18 2005 Coughlin Associates 18

19 HDD Applications for Consumer Electronics

20 Hitachi New Drives MIKEY Smallest Microdrive Available in 2 nd half 2005 Embedded version only PATA, CE-ATA, MMC-like 8 10GB capacity Targeting small handheld products, including multimedia phones SLIM Smallest 1.8 hard drive Single disk and 2-disk versions 60 80GB capacity Available in 2 nd half 2005 Embedded version PATA, CE-ATA (future) Targeting handheld audio and video products 2005 Coughlin Associates 20

21 CE-ATA Prototype in Marvell Booth at 2005 CES 2005 Coughlin Associates 21

22 Four Major Drive Components Affect Shock Performance 2. Magnetic Disks 1. Drive Case 3. Actuator 4. Suspension Assembly Bob Evans, HTI, March Coughlin Associates 22

23 Bob Evans, HTI, March 2005 History of Shock Requirements 3000 High End Mobile Shock Specifications 2500 G, Spec Limit micro-hdd non-op shock micro-hdd op-shock mobile non-op shock mobile op-shock Year 2005 Coughlin Associates 23

24 $/GB Advantage of HDDs Less for Smaller Drives $/GB NAND Flash vs. Disc OEM Nand Flash Data Point ~ $73/GB ~$43/GB ~$24/GB ~$13/GB Market Risks Nand flash pricing reductions to combat HDD entrance 3.3 mm high risk due to $/GB compared to flash Need cell phone real estate to allow 5mm HDD solutions Flash Chip 0.85" 1.0" 0.85" 3mm Samsung Flash Source: Seagate, 2005 Storage Visions Conference 2005 Coughlin Associates 24

25 Two Extreme Poles of CE Disk Drive Integration --Driven by Cost-- Total Integration into the Host Total Integration onto the Drive Disk Drive Becomes A Chip Disk Drive Companies Become Contract Manufacturers for Host Companies 2005 Coughlin Associates 25

26 Magnetic Mass Data Storage Technology Roadmap HDD Unit Industry Metrics Form Factor (dominant form factor is bold) inches 3.5, 2.5, 1.8, , 2.5, 1.8, , 2.5, 1.8, , 2.5, 1.8, , 1.8, 1.0 Capacity GB Market Size units (M) Cost/MB (avg.) $/MB 0.01 <0.003 <.002 <0.002 <0.001 Design/Performance Areal Density Gb/in 2 70 >100 >200 >400 >1000 Rotational Latency ms Seek Time* ms RPM k k k k k+ Data rate MB/sec >400 Power watts Reliability Spec. MTTF/AFR MTTF/AFR New Spec New Spec New Spec Key Component Requirements Read Head type GMR GMR GMR/ TMR GMR/ TMR GMR/ TMR Slider type & size (% of 5.52 mm 2 ) 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% Clearance nm 10 <10 <10 <10 <10 Disk type AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass Disk Static Coercivity Oe Magnetic Recording Technology Longitudinal Electronics/Channel type Noise Predictive GPR Longitudinal/Pe rpendicular Noise Predictive GPR Perpendicular Noise Predictive GPR Perpendicular, HAMR Iterative GPR (Turbo) Perpendicular, HAMR, Patterned Media Soft ECC Channel Bandwidth MHz >3200 SNR db 20 <20 <20 <20 <20 Actuator type Conventional Conventional dual/micro dual/micro dual/micro Spindle type Ball bearing/fluid Ball bearing/fluid Ball bearing/fluid Fluid 2005 Coughlin Associates 26 *Seek time is one third full stroke seek time and does not include microactuator local track Fluid

27 Magnetic Tape Technology Roadmap SAIT S-DLT LTO

28 Half-Inch Tape Cartridges Tape with Tape Drive Tape for many, is still digital archive media of choice Tape data access is on the order of minutes vs. milliseconds or seconds for disk Tape media costs have been somewhat underwritten by VCR tape production, implications for future of tape costs ½ inch tape capacities of up to 10 TB projected 2005 Coughlin Associates 28

29 Tape-based Digital Content Storage System Sony Petasite Tape Library 2005 Coughlin Associates 29

30 Tape Capacity (GB Active tape format CAGRs are about 40%. Disk Drive CAGRs are expected to be ~60% S-AIT AIT DDS DLT LTO 30% CAGR 60% CAGR 120% CAGR 2005 Coughlin Associates 30

31 Magnetic Mass Data Storage Technology Roadmap Tape Unit orm Factor inch 5.25, , , , ,3.5 ongitudinal Tape olumetric Density GB/in Cartridge (native) capacity GB/TB 200 GB GB 1-2 TB 1,75-4 TB 4-10 TB Areal Density Gb/in Data Rate MB/s/drive Tape Speed (for data) meters/sec Head tracking precision required ey Requirements +/- µm 1.5 ~.1.1 <.1 Heads type MR MR/GMR GMR GMR GMR Number of data channels Number Detection channel type EPRML E 2 PRML E 2 PRML E 2 PRML, TURBO- CODE Magnetic film type dual layer Tape/media thickness media material elical Tape substrate metal particle dual-layer metal particle metal film multi-layer metal particle metal film multi-layer metal particle metal film µm (micron) 9 6 <=6 <6 <4 type PEN PEN Aramid*/ adv. polymer PEN Aramid*/ adv. polymer PEN Aramid*/ adv. polymer E 2 PRML, TURBO- CODE multi-layer metal particle metal film Aramid*/ Areal Density Gb/in adv. polymer Data Rate MB/s/drive Cartridge Capacity (native) Note: the high range in last three columns is due to introduction of singlereel ½ cartridge. GB/TB 50+ GB GB 1-4 TB TB Head-Tape speed meters/sec Head tracking precision required ey Requirements +/- µm Tape thickness µm <2.0 <2.0 Media Material Substrate Type/Pet* PEN/PA* PA * PA or better PA or better PA or better 2005 Coughlin Associates 31 *polyethylene ethyl teraphalate/ polyethylene ethyl napthalate/polyamid (aramid)

32 Optical Disk Technology Roadmap (B)

33 Blue Ray Optical Disks and Drive By end of 2005 Blu Ray and HD-DVD Disks will be available with capacities up to 50 GB! 2005 Coughlin Associates 33

34 Optical Content Distribution Trends Holographic Disks 2005 Coughlin Associates 34 Source: Telcordia 3/03

35 Percent Shipments of CD, DVD, and Blue Laser Hardware Units, Period (Source: Strategic Marketing Decisions in Mediaware, May/June 2004, p Coughlin Associates 35

36 First-Generation Blue Disk Optical Storage Products Toshiba/NEC Matsushita Sony Plasmon name HD DVD BD Recorder Prof. Disc for DATA UDO market segments 1 1 2,3,4 2,3,4 1-layer capacity (GB) 15 (RO)/20 (RW) (each disc side) 2-layer capacity (GB) 30 (RO)/32 (RW) 50 NA NA media types RO/RW RO (TBD) WO/RW WO/RW rewritable media type phase change RW phase change (10,000 cycles) data rate (MB/s) seek time (ms)?? phase change (10,000 cycles) 9 write 11 read 110 (CAV) 280 (CLV) phase change (10,000 cycles) 2-4 write (with verification) 4-8 file format micro-udf BD proprietary BD proprietary per ECMA 350 disc diameter (mm) thickness (mm) 0.6 x x 2 wavelength (nm) NA modulation code ETM (1,7)PP (1,7)PP (1,7)RLL read channel PRML PRML PRML PRML track pitch (nm) /400 track density (tpi) 63,500 79,375 79,375 68,649 (max) min. mark length (nm) recording density (bpi) 182, , , ,795 areal density (Gb/in 2 ) first shipment (2005) July 2004 November 2003 October 2003 drive price (US$) TBD 2,800 media price (US$) TBD 35 (25 GB RW) 70 (50 GB RW) ODL No No 2,995 (int) 3,299 (ext) 45 Sony 19" rack mount (30 GB WO) 75 (30 GB RW) Plasmon G-Series 3 rd party software TBD TBD Yes Yes 2005 Coughlin Associates 36

37 Near-Term Roadmap, Optical Disk Storage Products Product Name Form Factor Disc Type/ Diameter (mm) Capacity (GB) Write/Read Options First Shipments Market Segments AOD/ HD DVD AOD/ HD DVD (dual layer) Blu-ray Disc (BD) Blu-ray Disc (dual layer) DataPlay Blue Digital MultiDisc (DMD) EVD (dual layer) Hi-MD Holographic (InPhase) Holographic (Optware) Prof. Disc for DATA -2 Prof. Disc for DATA " HH 5.25" HH 5.25" HH 5.25" HH SFFD 5.25" HH 5.25" HH 2.5" HH 5.25" (11" or 17" long) 19" RM 5.25" HH 5.25" HH 3.5" ISO MO 3.5" HH UDO-2 (dual layer) UDO-3 (dual layer) UV-ray Disc (dual layer) 5.25" HH 5.25" HH 5.25" HH replicated & phase change/ 120mm replicated & phase change/ 120mm replicated, dye layer & phase change/ 120mm replicated, dye layer & phase change/ 120mm replicated & phase change/ 32mm replicated & phase change/ 120mm Replicated & dye layer/ 120mm MO/ 64.8mm photopolymer/ 130mm photopolymer/ 130mm phase change/ 120mm phase change/ 120mm MO/ 86mm phase change/ 130mm phase change/ 130mm replicated & phase change/ 120mm 15/20 RO/RW ,2 30/32 RO/RW ,2 23/25/27 RO/WO/RW ,2 25/50 RO/WO/RW ,2 3 RO/WO , (3-12 layers) 6 11 RO/WO RO WO RO/RW ,2 200 WO ,4 200 WO ,4 50 WO/RW WO/RW RW ,3 60 WO/RO ,4 120 WO/RO ,4 334 RO/WO/RW , Coughlin Associates 37

38 Long-Term Roadmap, Optical Disk Storage Products Product Name Form Factor Disc Type/ Diameter (mm) Capacity (GB) Write/Read Options First Shipments Market Segments AOD HD DVD (quad layer) Blu-ray Disc (quad layer) DataPlay Blue (dual/quad layer) Digital MultiDisc Blue EVD Blue (dual layer) Hi-MD Blue Holographic (InPhase) Holographic (Optware) Prof. Disc for DATA-4 (quad layer) 5.25" HH 5.25" HH SFFD 5.25" HH 5.25" HH 2.5" HH 5.25" FH 5.25" FH 5.25" HH 3.5" ISO MO 3.5" HH UDO-4 (quad layer) UV-ray Disc (quad layer) 5.25" HH 5.25" HH replicated & phase change/ 120mm replicated, dye layer & phase change/ 120mm replicated & phase change/ 32mm replicated & phase change/ 120mm replicated & dye layer/ 120mm MO/ 64.8mm photopolymer/ 130mm photopolymer/ 130mm phase change/ 120mm MO/ 86mm phase change/ 130mm replicated & phase change/ 120mm 60/80 RO/RW ,2 92/100/108 RO/WO/RW , RO/WO , (10 layers) RO/WO/RW RO WO RO/RW , WO/RW , WO/RW ,4 200 WO/RW RW ,3 240 WO/RO ,4 864 RO/WO/RW , Coughlin Associates 38

39 Optical Storage Component/Subsystem Attributes Component/Subsystem Comments Laser Wavelength (nm) Laser Power (mw) Objective Lens NA Through 2009, convergence on 405nm is expected. Beyond about 2010, UV lasers and media must be planned, if not implemented. Recording speed and recording layer sensitivity are the pacing factors. Historically, this has been the range in laser powers for each generation. Assumes the introduction of NFR to obtain NA >1. Disc Types replicated, WO, RW, holographic replicated, WO, RW, holographic replicated, WO, RW, holographic replicated, WO, RW, holographic Media types will probably stay the same. WO should survive the roadmap period. Recording Layers Each side of the disc. By 2009, areal densities will be so high that cartridge media will be required. Data Encoding/Read Channel RLL/PRML RLL/PRML RLL/PRML TBD Multi-level, multi-layer, NFR, and combinations will require significant coding and signal processing as 100 Gb/in 2 areal densities are approached Coughlin Associates 39

40 Flash Memory Technology Roadmap

41 Flash Format Size Capacities Flash Memory Compact Flash Type I Smart Media Card 42.8 x 36.4 x 3.3 mm 45.9 x 37.0 x.76 mm Standard Capacity (MB) Performance Capacity (MB) Capacity (MB) Multimedia Card 32.0 x 24.0 x 1.4 mm Capacity (MB) TB Shipped 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, SD (Secure Digital) Card SD Expansion Card Palm OS Devices xd Picture Card Olypus & Fuji Digital Cameras Memory Stick (Standard & Magic Gate) Sony Devices 32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mm 32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mm 20.0 x 25.0 x 1.7 mm 50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm Capacity (MB) Capacity (MB) Capacity (MB) Capacity (MB) Memory Stick Pro (Standard & Magic Gate) 50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm Sony Devices 14 formats and growing Memory Duo Stick (Standard & Magic Gate) 50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm Sony Devices Memory Duo Stick Pro (Standard & Magic Gate) 31.0 x 20.0 x 1.6 mm Sony Devices (1) Capacities as of September Coughlin Associates 41

42 NAND Flash Chip Roadmap Design Rule (Minimum Feature Size f in nanometers) Cell size (f ² ) Average bits/cell Die Size in mm² Cost/GB $40/in 2 usable silicon Average chip density (megabits) ,932 14, , Coughlin Associates 42

43 SEC Flash Process Technology (Samsung) Design Rule Life Cycle 120nm 90nm 73nm 63nm 55nm Design Rule 120nm 90nm 73nm 63nm 55nm Density 1 G 2 G 4 G 8 G 16 G Clock Cycle 20MHz 33MHz 40MHz Read 16MB/s 24MB/s 29MB/s with EDC Write 5.2MB/s 7.2MB/s 8.5MB/s 2005 Coughlin Associates 43

44 Flash Density Trend 0.15um Technology 0.12um 90nm 70nm 1G 2G 4G 60nm 50nm Flash Scaling Trend ( 2x density / year) 8G 16G Coughlin Associates 44

45 2005 Coughlin Associates 45

46 Other Storage Technologies

47 Nonvolatile Magnetic Random Access Memory (NVRAM) Roadmap Metric Design Rule (Minimum Feature Size f in micrometers) Cell size (f 2 ) Areal 50% Array Efficiency (Mb/in 2 ) ,700 Cost / Mb $40/in 2 usable silicon Performance Write / read time (ns) Data rate (write or read limit) (MHz) Energy to write 1 bit (picojoule) Energy to read 1 bit (picojoule) Key Attribute SNR (db) Faulty bits allowed (out of spec for any reason) 1 in in in in in 10 7 Chip yield (per wafer) 90% 92% 95% 95% 95% 2005 Coughlin Associates 47

48 Additional Storage Technologies to Watch Ferroelectric Random Access Memory (FRAM) Ovonic Unified Memory (OUM) Programmable Metallization Cell Memory (PMCm) Probe Based Storage (PBS) 2005 Coughlin Associates 48

49 Conclusions Storage applications are increasing in capacity demand, driving all digital storage technologies. HDDs are following a 50-60% annual areal density growth rate, fueling new applications in high capacity ATA-array storage as well as consumer electronic applications Flash memory and small form factor HDDs are pushing technology development to vie for mobile consumer electronics applications Optical storage capacity will increase going forward to meet the needs for content distribution as multimedia resolution increases New solid state and probe based storage technologies are being developed and are seeking applications in mobile and other electronic product applications 2005 Coughlin Associates 49

50 Sources 2005 Entertainment Creation and Distribution Digital Storage Report, Coughlin Associates 2004 NEMI Mass Storage Roadmap Report, various authors Talks from the 2005 Storage Visions Conference ( and the February 2005 IDEMA SFF HDD and Flash Memory Symposium ( For more information go to the tech papers section of Coughlin Associates 50

51 The End 2005 Coughlin Associates 51