El Dorado County Travel Demand Model 2012 Update. October 14, FINAL User s Manual. Prepared for: El Dorado County.

Transcription

1 El Dorado County Travel Demand Model 2012 Update October 14, 2013 FINAL User s Manual Prepared for: El Dorado County Prepared by: Copyright 2013, Kimley Horn and Associates, Inc.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. USER S MANUAL Software Introduction Model File Structure Interface Walkthrough GIS Functionality Input Files Tutorial Post Processing Procedures Model User Agreement LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit 1 Model User Agreement EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update i

3 1. USER S MANUAL The El Dorado County TDM is built on the Citilabs Cube 6.0 modeling platform and is capable of performing the four step modeling process, with the addition of the following enhancements: A graphical user interface (GUI) using Cube Catalog to organize, manage and execute transportation modeling scenarios; A 5D modeling enhancement that improves the model s sensitivity to smart growth policies; and Mapping capabilities using GIS to visualize model run results for analysis and presentation. The user can perform the following travel demand modeling applications using the Cube Catalog: Trip generation Skim highway and transit networks Trip distribution Mode split Assign highway and network trips Create maps visualizing model outputs 1.1 Software Introduction The EDC TDM performs calculations on large matrices that are computationally intensive, requiring a computer with fairly current specifications to produce manageable run times. As documented in the software manual, the computer should meet the following minimum specifications for running Cube 6.0: Pentium GHZ CPU 1GB RAM 80GB HD Windows XP Home, Pro or Server 2003 Cube includes the ArcGIS runtime engine for computers that do not have the full ArcGIS application installed. The runtime engine supports basic mapping capabilities. It is recommended that ArcGIS 9.3 or greater be installed on the host computer for the map templates provided with the EDC TDM Catalog to display properly. 1.2 Model File Structure The EDC TDM Catalog files can be saved and run locally on the local hard disk or on a network drive. The following steps need to be performed one time basis to setup the base file structure: 1. Copy the entire EDC_CAT directory from the installation CD to the destination hard disk. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 1

4 2. To launch the Catalog, simply double click on the EDC_TDM.cat file. The Catalog interface will now appear in Cube. 3. The EDC_CAT directory from the installation CD consists of the following default subdirectories: Directory 5D_Application Applications1 Runs Geodatabase Maps Shapefiles Description Contains the script file to apply the 5D trip reduction factors to the model s vehicle trip tables Contains the application files to run the model in the Cube Catalog Contains the model input files and the subdirectories in which the model output files for a model scenario are saved Contains the model network files Contains map templates to visualize model output results Contains shapefiles used by the map templates 1.3 Interface Walkthrough There are five primary windows within the Cube Catalog used to manage and run the model as shown below: EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 2

5 1. Scenario: Model runs are organized into scenarios to manage input and output files for different runs. 2. Data: View the model s input and output files. 3. Applications: Functionalities of the model are organized into applications. The EDC TDM is made up of numerous application files that are organized in the structure below. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 3

6 4. Keys: Keys specify input/output parameters for the selected scenario. 5. Data Manager: Access the model highway network files for viewing and editing 1.4 GIS Functionality The highway network files are maintained in a file geodatabase. Using the Data Manager in the Cube Catalog, the user can view and edit the network in the geodatabase. The following describe the steps to initialize the ArcGIS shell to edit the model networks. 1. Expand the EDC_Model.gdb tree in the Data Manager window. 2. Double click on the HWNetwork_Base feature class. 3. The Base Year model network appears in the ArcGIS shell, from which the user can utilize the editing tools to add/remove links and update link attributes. 1.5 Input Files The model requires a number of input files for the applications to run correctly. The following list the files needed for the Year2010, 2025, 2035 and 2035 Project scenario: File Name {year}base.lin {year}base.sup 2010base_pnr.sup {year}hhmv.dbf {year}tgsp.dbf {year}thru.dbf {year}zbas.dbf Description Transit line nodes Transit supply link file for bus lines within the model area Transit supply link file for park and ride lots within the model area (used for the 2010 and 2025/2035 scenarios) Household cross classification matrix Internal and external gateway trips Gateway through trips Zonal SED file EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 4

7 1.6 Tutorial This section describes the process for defining a scenario for which to run the model. A scenario defines a model run s input files and output files including parameters. The Catalog has a 2010 Base Year scenario set up as default. The following describes the scenario management menus. 1. Add a scenario by right clicking on Runs in the Scenario window and select Add Child. As shown in the Cube Catalog, the Year2010 scenario has been created. 2. Right clicking on the Year 2010 scenario shows several options to manage a scenario: Menu Option Add Child Add Sibling Delete Rename Edit/Run Scenario Properties Description Adds a sub scenario beneath the Year2010 scenario Adds another scenario at the same hierarchy level with the Year2010 scenario Deletes a child/sibling level scenario Renames the scenario View scenario parameters and launch model run Notes and other descriptive information about the scenario 3. The input and output files for a scenario are managed in the Data window. Double clicking on the input file opens up the file, in which the user can modify the data. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 5

8 Running the Base Year Scenario without the 5D trip reduction enabled: Before a model run can be performed with the 5D trip reduction, model output files need to be first generated from a model run without the 5D trip reduction in effect. 1. Double click on the Year2010 scenario in the Scenario window. The following interface showing input parameters will appear. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 6

9 2. Make sure that the Run 5D Trip Reduction Process? checkbox is empty. 3. Click Run. 4. The Task Monitor window will appear, showing the progress of the model run. 5. The following prompt will appear showing that the model ran successfully. Running the 5D setup process: The 5D trip reductions for each zone are calculated based on 5D scoring process discussed in Technical Memorandum #2 and #7: Mode Choice. The setup process involves using socioeconomic data and other geographic and spatial features, coupled with GIS, to calculate a scoring value for each of the 5D factors, which determines the appropriate level of vehicular trip reduction for the zone. The user should execute the 5D setup process after the initial Base Year and future year model runs. In addition, the setup process should be re run after updates to the scenario model input data. For example, changes to the land use forecast could change the number of households, employment, etc. in a zone, requiring the 5D setup process to update the scoring values to determine the trip reduction level with the new SED totals. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 7

10 The following describe the steps for running the 5D setup process. 1. Open the 5D setup script in Cube by clicking on File > Open. Navigate to the 5D_Application directory and select the 5DSetup.s file. The script file will now appear in Cube. 2. The script requires the file directory path to the Python.exe file. The Python.exe file is installed by default with versions of ArcGIS. For example, the script is setup to run the Python.exe file form the default location for ArcGIS 10: *C:\Python26\ArcGIS10.0\python.exe. If the computer running the Cube has a different version of ArcGIS or is only utilizing the installed ArcGIS runtime, the user must perform a search for the Python.exe file and update the file path in the script as shown below. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 8

11 3. Click on Run Current File button on the upper left corner of the Home tool bar. A menu will appear for the user to specify the location of the model input files and the parameters for the 5D scoring process. The file paths to the Base Year input files for the Year2010 scenario are entered by default. 4. Click Done. A menu will now appear to launch the script. Click on the Start button to execute the script. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 9

12 Running a Single Step of the Base Year Scenario: The user has the ability to run individual steps or applications of the modeling process. This capability is useful under circumstances that do not require re running previous steps. The following steps describe the process for running a select application. 1. Expand the application tree in the Application window to view all of the model s individual applications. 2. As an example, double click on the Highway Assignment application. The window shows the detailed flow chart process to run the Highway Assignment. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 10

13 3. Click on the Run button at the top left corner of the Home menu. 4. The Run Application window appears. Select the Run Current Group Only checkbox. 5. Click Ok or Yes in the subsequent prompts. 6. A Task Manager window appears showing the progress for running that application. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 11

14 Accessing Model Outputs in Cube This section describes how the user can view the model output files as well as use of the GIS map templates to visualize outputs. The model output files are saved in a folder within the Runs directory. The files generated by the Base Year model run are saved to the Year2010 directory. The output directories are named according to the scenario. Cube models save assignment results in Cube s binary network file format ([filename].net). Map templates related to the assignment reference the data written to the binary network file. At the conclusion of each model run, the user must import the binary network file into the EDC_Model.gdb file geodatabase to ensure that the maps reflects the results of the model run. 1. Click on the Import/Export button in the Data Manger window to Import the Daily.net binary network file into EDC_Model file geodatabase. 2. In the Input Data field in the prompt below, click on the icon on the right and browse and navigate to the Base Year scenario directory ( Runs\Year2010 ) and select the Daily.net file. 3. In the Output Name field, enter HWNetwork_Base_Assignment. 4. Click Ok. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 12

15 Opening the Map Templates in Cube: Five map templates have been created for the Base Year modeling scenario. If ArcGIS is not installed on the computer, the map templates can be opened in Cube, but with the limited functionality of the ArcGIS runtime. The following examples create GIS output maps for daily volumes. 1. In the Outputs window, double click and open the Daily.Net file. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 13

16 2. Click on File>Print>Page Setup. 3. Click on Print Setup to see the following prompt. 4. For the paper size, select Landscape ANSI D. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 14

17 5. Click Ok. 6. In the Outputs window, navigate to the Maps directory and double click on the ADT.mxd file. 7. The map template will open. Click on the Layout View button on the ArcGIS toolbar. The map will now appear in its native page size. Opening the Map Templates in ArcGIS: The following steps describe the steps to open the map template In ArcGIS, provided that the full application is installed on the user s computer. 1. Navigate to the Maps folder in the directory on the drive that the model files were copied to. 2. Double click on the ADT.MXD file. 3. ArcGIS will open. 1.7 Post Processing Procedures A travel demand model is a large scale approximation of millions of people s individual daily decisions about where to go, when to travel, and how to get there. As the specificity of the model s estimates of future traffic increases, especially at the arterial segment or intersection level of analysis, the model forecasts becomes less accurate due to the variability of individual trip making characteristics and the macroscopic nature of the model. Therefore, travel demand models include a post processing method that helps refine forecasts to better reflect realword conditions. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 15

18 Post processing involves adjustments to future model outputs to produce traffic forecasts that do not contain the inconsistencies between the base year model traffic estimates and observed traffic count volumes. Post Processing Arterial Segment Volumes: The following procedures describe the process for refining daily arterial segment volumes in a manner consistent with NCHRP 255 guidelines that combines existing traffic counts with estimated traffic growth from the model to refine future traffic forecasts. 1. If the future year is 2035 and the base year is 2010, the model s growth is determined by subtracting the base year volume from the future volume. Example: The model s year 2035 volume is 50,000 and the base year volume is 45,000. The model s growth is 5,000 (50,000 minus 45,000). 2. Add the model growth to the existing traffic count. Example: The existing traffic count for the arterial segment is 35,000. Add the model s growth, 5,000 to the count to arrive at a post processed volume of 40, If the future volume is lower than the base year volume, apply the ratio of the future volume to the base year volume to the existing traffic count. Example: The future volume is instead 42,000, which is less than the base year volume. Multiply the existing traffic count by 0.93 (42,000 divided by 45,000). The post processed volume is 32,666. Post Processing Intersection Turning Movement Volumes: Turning movement volumes could be derived from the model s arterial link volumes by utilizing the Furness Method. The following provides a brief overview of the Furness Method: 1. Multiply the model s peak period volume for the approach and departure links at the intersection location by the AM or PM peak hour factor. 2. Determine the observed approach and departure volumes using the peak hour turning movement counts. 3. Post process the observed and model peak hour approach/departure volumes using the method described previously in this section. 4. Calculate the ratio of the observed approach volume to the post processed approach volume. 5. Calculate the ratio of the observed departure volume to the post processed departure volume. 6. Create an initial matrix populated by the turning movement counts with the rows representing observed approach and the columns representing the observed departure. Apply the ratio from #4 to the rows in the matrix. Apply the ratio from #5 to the columns in the matrix. 7. Apply the ratio of observed approach/departure volumes to the forecasted approach/departure volumes iteratively until the matrix is balanced. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 16

19 1.8 Model User Agreement El Dorado County may choose to provide access to the EDC TDM at the request of other agencies or consultants. The model files and data sets would be provided upon the submission of a model user agreement. Upon the approval of the request, the County may provide the catalog file and datasets, as well as any model documentation to the requesting party. A sample Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is provided in Exhibit 1. EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 17

20 Exhibit 1 Model User Agreement This Memorandum of Understanding is made on (Date) between (Agency/Consultant Name) whose offices are located at (Address), and the County of El Dorado, whose offices are located at 330 Fair Lane, Placerville, CA The purpose of this Memorandum of Understanding is to allow (Agency/Consultant) to use the El Dorado County Travel Demand Model (EDC TDM) for analysis relating to the (Study/Project Name). It is understood that (Agency/Consultant) will only use the EDC TDM for analysis relating to the (Study/Project Name), and if (Agency/Consultant) uses EDC TDM for any other purpose, the results are understood to be unofficial and may not be used in other projects without written authorization from the County of El Dorado. It is understood that the official version of the EDC TDM is that version provided to (Agency/Consultant) by the County of El Dorado on (Date), and any Model Setting changes (Trip Generation Rates, Gravity Model Settings, Assignment Settings, etc.) in the official version can only be made with written authorization from the County of El Dorado. Project Level data changes, including but not limited to network edits and socioeconomic data revisions, are acceptable as long all model changes are clearly documented and shared with the County of El Dorado during the process as well as at the end of the (Study/Project Name). Disclaimer: It is understood that County of El Dorado disclaims responsibility for damage or liability associated with the use of this information. It is understood that County of El Dorado has made all reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and integrity of this information. The County of El Dorado may terminate this MOU, in whole or in part, at any time by written notice when it is in the best interest of the County of El Dorado at any time with or without cause. Upon execution of the MOU, the above named agency or consultant certifies or affirms the truthfulness and accuracy of any statement it has made, it makes, it may make, or causes to be made, pertaining to the results and/or usage of the underlying subject for which this MOU has been drafted. In addition to other penalties that may be applicable, the agency or consultant further acknowledges that if it makes, or causes to be made, a false, fictitious, or fraudulent claim, statement, submission, or certification, the County of El Dorado reserves the right to impose the penalties on the agency or consultant to the extent deemed appropriate. Copyright: It is understood that the County of El Dorado retains all copyright to the work under this MOU. Agreed to and accepted by: Signature Title Date (Agency/Consultant) EDC Travel Demand Model 2012 Update 18