Market Overview Global Investment In European Micro-/Nano Electronics. Malcolm Penn Chairman & CEO Future Horizons

Transcription

1 Market Overview Global Investment In European Micro-/Nano Electronics Malcolm Penn Chairman & CEO Future Horizons

2 Entering Quarters Of Unit Growth 8 Quarters Of ASP Growth High Foundry Fab Utilisation Rates Low Levels Of Cap Ex Spend (Build To Order) Negligible (Non-Seasonal) Inventory Build 10% 2014 SC Sales Growth 8.2% CAGR (By Value) Yet Received Industry Wisdom Was: The Market Is Lousy Be Careful What You Wish For By Q The Market Had Tanked (The 3-Year Boom Was Over, It Passed Many Firms By) It s The Economy, Stupid Dark Clouds Are Everywhere (Emerging Market Slowdown / Interest Rate Rises / Currencies / Stock Markets / Election) Slide 2

3 Current Market Outlook Q uarte r Nov 2015 Value Q % Q2 1.0% Q3 1.5% Q4-2.0% % Future Horizons, 2015 All Rights Reserved Q uarte r Nov 2015 Value Q % Q2 1.5% Q3 4.4% Q4-1.0% % Q4 Will Not Affect 2015 By Much But It Will Impact 2016 Slide 3

4 Percent Of SC Sales IC Unit Run Rate (Billions/Week) Quarterly IC ASP Quarterly IC ASP Y-On-Y Change Fundamentals Unchanged & Strong IC Unit Growth IC ASP 5.0 Monthly IC Unit Shipments (5-Week Month Adjusted) $ % 4.5 $ % 4.0 $ % 3.5 $2.00 0% 3.0 $ % 2.5 $ % 2.0 $ % 1.5 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 $0.00 Q1-78 Q1-79 Q1-80 Q1-81 Q1-82 Q1-83 Q1-84 Q1-85 Q1-86 Q1-87 Q1-88 Q1-89 Q1-90 Q1-91 Q1-92 Q1-93 Q1-94 Q1-95 Q1-96 Q1-97 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1-00 Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q % CapEx 25% Total SC Equipmant Sales % Total SC Sales 16.5% Trend Line 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 Jan 05 Jan 04 Jan 03 Jan 02 Source: WSTS / SEMI Slide 4

5 Patterns Of Economic Challenge Performance Improving IC performance but without reducing costs does not generate sufficient new revenues Profits Insufficient revenues in turn will not generate enough profits to pay for the next round of investments Scale Failure to achieve a certain size (scale) means eventual inability to stay in business Slide 5

6 Patterns Of SC Innovation Disruptive Innovation Invention Of Transistor (Shockley, Bardeen, Brattain: 1947) Invention Of The IC (Kilby: 1958 / Noyce: 1959) Microprocessor Development (Faggin, Shima, Hoff, Mazor: 1971) Exponential Innovation Moore s Law (Gordon Moore: 1965) Cyclical Innovation Makimoto s Wave (Tsugio Makimoto: 1991) Slide 6

7 What Next? Disruptive Innovation Post-CMOS Scaling (Materials & Structures) Biological ICs/Systems (Grown Inside The Final Package) Quantum Computing (When We Finally Figure Out How) Exponential Innovation Moore s Law Is Dead (28nm Was The Last Node) Shame No-one Told TSMC/Samsung (For Them It s Accelerated) Cyclical Innovation 2017 Cross Over Point HFSI (Highly Flexible Super Integration)? Driven By Same Reasons (SoC Design Cost & Fragmented Market) Technological Breakthroughs (Multi-functions & HP NVRAM) Slide 7

8 Makimoto s Wave Extension Standardization Standard Discrete '57 MPU & '67 '77 Memory '87 '97 Custom LSI ASIC Field Programmability '07 '17 SoC/SiP Highly Flexible Super Integration HFSI 27 Customization Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto Slide 8

9 Process Evolution Remains Key A9 A9X* *14nm A9 (Samsung) 96mm 2 / 16nm A9X (TSMC) 105mm 2 With 10nm Just Around The Corner (Some Firms Are Leapfrogging 14nm!) & 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, 2,25nm, 1.8nm & 1.3nm All Well Understood Slide 9 Slide 9

10 FD-SOI Hype vs Reality Keys To Success Moving Forward: Downplay the flawed alternative to FinFET Hype It s NOT Re-brand the process Mixed Signal Optimized Silicon or similar to focus on its real process strengths Target profitable niches (advanced mixed signal, high-performance and ultra low-power) where FinFET fails Target technology as a compliment not competitor to FinFET, just as with ARC (Synopsys) vs. ARM MPU cores Slide 10

11 MEMS Product Examples 10-Axis Gyroscope Microphone Pressure Sensor Source: Freescale InkJet Print Head Source: Knowles/ChipWorks RF Switching Source: OmronD Camera Focusing Source: STM Source: IOP Source: InvenSense Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report) Slide 11

12 MEMS Market Growth By Application Total Market ($12b) +15% Bosch, STM, TI Segment Expected Growth Market Leader(s) (Value) in 2015 Mobile Positive STM, Knowles, Avago, Bosch MEMS Microphones +5% Knowles R.F. Switches and Tuning Positive Avago Combination Smart Sensors Positive STM Gyroscopes Negative STM Magnetometers Negative AKM Accelerometers Negative Bosch 6 Axis Inertia MEMS Positive InvenSense 6 Axis E-Compass Positive Bosch Pressure Sensors Zero STM Automotive Positive Bosch, Sensata, Denso, Freescale Printer Zero Hewlett Packard, Canon, TI HDD Zero STM Aerospace Slowly Positive Freescale, Amphenol, Honeywell Medical Positive STM Industrial Positive Bosch, Panasonic Other Consumer Positive (slowly) STM Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report) Slide 12

13 SC 7.0 Winners & Losers Decade SC 1.0 SC 2.0 SC 3.0 SC 4.0 SC 5.0 SC 6.0 SC 7.0 Rank H Hughes TI TI NEC Intel Intel Intel 2 Transitron Motorola Motorola TI NEC Samsung Samsung 3 Philco Fairchild Philips Motorola Toshiba TI TSMC 4 Sylvania GE NSC Hitachi Hitachi Toshiba Qualcomm Finally Europe s Starting To Fight Back! 5 TI RCA Intel Toshiba Motorola ST SK-Hynix 6 GE Sprague NEC Fujitsu Samsung Infineon Micron - Infineon Bought IR 7 RCA Philco/Ford Hitachi Philips TI Renesas TI - NXP 8 Westinghouse Bought Philips Freescale Fairchild Intel IBM TSMC Toshiba 9 Motorola Transitron RCA NSC Mitsubishi Sony Broadcom - But Not Yet ST (Still In Deep Trouble & Losing Share) 10 Clevite Raytheon GE Matsushita Philips Philips MediaTek Market $0.08b $1.5b $4.0b $21.5b $144b $227b $342b Driver Discretes Std Logic MOS CMOS MPU SoC ASSPs No Change New Entries Dropped Out Region H-2015 Intel TSMC ST US 2 5 Samsung Qualcomm Infineon Japan 3 1 But Comeback s SK-HynixStill Philips Not Enough Scale To Make 10/100/20 Goals SE Asia Micron Renesas 2 4 Broadcom MediaTek Sony 10 Years Is A Lifetime In The Chip Industry You Need To Constantly Re-Invent Yourself (& Your Customer Base) Europe 3 0 Slide 13

14 Airbus Of Chips & The ELG The Strategy Will Focus On Three Complementary Lines: Making Chips Cheaper (Transitioning To 450mm Wafers) Making Chips Faster ("More Moore") Making Chips Smarter ("More Than Moore ) Commission VP Neelie Kroes, May 2013 ELG Report (One Month Late) Watered Down Rehash Of 10/100/20 Strategy Jan 30, 2014 ELG Report 2 (Five Months Later) 450mm, More Moore & 20% Goals Dropped Jun 26, 2014 Slide 14

15 EU Chip Firms CapEx & R&D ROI Investment Spend (% Sales) 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Micron 3.99 TSMC 3.73 Samsung 3.25 Hynix 3.74 Infineon 0.77 Ind Avg 1.49 ST 1.01 Intel 1.63 Broadcom 7.50 Toshiba 1.47 NXP 0.84 TI 1.53 Qualcomm % Growth vs Investment Spend 15% Source: WSTS / Company Data Wouldn t Be So Bad If Europe Was Doing Well Europe s SC Chip ROI Is The Worst In The World $100b In Lost Sales Since 2002 Peak $1t In Lost European GDP Creation Slide 15

16 IPCEI Business As Usual? We ve All Heard Of Moore s Law Then We Focused On More Than Moore Now We Have Please Can I Have More With Few Exceptions (IQE?) Current IPCEIs Are All Extrapolations Where Are The New Ideas & Where Are The New Companies? If The Current Guard Won t Get Us There, Time For New Players? No Problem With Individual Firms Following Their Own Agenda But If These Won t Fulfil Europe s Broader Goals. Surely Fresh Blood & Fresh Thinking vs. Lockdown Is Required? Do We Not Also Need A Rethink On The Funding Mechanisms? Slide 16

17 Forward-Looking Funding Mechanisms KET Pilot Lines (ECSEL-IA) have bridged the HLWG R&D to pilot production gap EFSI (European Fund for Strategic Investments) is now a vehicle for bridging the final gap of establishing full production facilities in Europe Due to the high investment costs for an advanced 300mm (450mm) fab, there is a real danger (a) the cost is unaffordable and (b) the programme is viewed as (and becomes) a defacto alternative (new) subsidy vehicle To avoid this we believe future programmes, including EFSI, should be designed to directly support the commercialisation of European research with radical new thinking on future EU semiconductor company funding Key to this thinking is the adoption of Airbus RLI (Reimbursable Launch Investment) concept for taking new technology from design to production Repayable loans (paid for as a levy on future sales) vs. grants would potentially revolutionise and transform Europe s chip industry Slide 17

18 Don t Ignore Hardware Education? The Raspberry Pi and other initiatives have been a great success Plenty of enthusiastic future software engineers coming through But what about the hardware this S/W runs on???? Who will design the Pi for the next generation? Who will design the ARM A97 core and the rest of the SoC? Who will design the 3nm process and beyond Who will design the ASML litho machine optics to fab this Who will design the resists and etchants Who will design the EDA tools (needs H/W know-how) It s hard enough for startups to get involved with the newer semi nodes so what chance do schools and universities have? Slide 18

19 Panel Discussion Next Steps In 10/100/20 Slide 19

20 Contact Details Future Horizons Ltd 44 Bethel Road Sevenoaks, Kent TN13 3UE, England T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) E: Thank You Regional Offices In The UK & Russia Affiliates In Europe, India, Israel, Japan, Russia & USA Follow us on: Twitter Face Book LinkedIn Please /Contact Future Horizons For A Copy Of This Presentation Slide 20