Hot Products and. Regional Preferences

Transcription

1 Hot Products and In 60 Minutes Regional Preferences Brian Markwalter SVP, Research and Standards Consumer Electronics Association

2 2014 International CES At a Glance... Exhibitors Sqft Exhibit Space Attendees Countries

3 Innovation at CES Categories poised for a breakthrough Sensors Power consumption and generation tech Wearables Biometric security In-vehicle infotainment

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5 Sensors in Context

6 Uses for Sensors Low power radios + sensors + software = magic Combining inputs from various sensors adds context CES was full of companies finding new uses for sensors Improving battery life, size, packaging, processing algorithms (especially quantified self)

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8 Power Generation Law of conservation of energy still applies! Lots of alternative ways to generate power Solar power generation is maturing technology New at CES Hydrogen fuel cell Thermal energy Kinetic energy

9 Power-Generating Fabric Piezoelectric fibers Harvests energy from different types of movement Stretching Wrinkling Exposure to elements like raindrops With current tech, 8 in 2 swatch generates ~1 watt electricity

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11 Wearables at CES Wearables were literally everywhere Fitness trackers lead the pack New differentiations are appearing LG Lifeband Touch Netatmo June FitBark

12 Bring on the Watches 2014 will be the Year of the Smartwatch Now through v1 for most major players Important learnings from v1 smartwatches Looks shouldn t scream Smart watch! Should reduce screen-on time for smartphones Input is a tough issue to address Pebble Steele Metawatch

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14 ID-Based Security at CES Ergo Device authentication based on your earprint Unikey Kevo deadbolt Two-factor authentication (phone + fingerprint) Pulse Wallet Palm recognition at point-of-sale terminal Hoyos Labs HoyosId Secure password storage Facial recognition based

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16 The New Auto Show CES has quietly become an automotive tech destination Almost all major car companies exhibiting New cars launched at CES In-vehicle experience neglected in smartphone era But the car is still your other living room CE and auto companies working hard on integration Safe driving a big focus

17 + = Digital World TCG Yearly Forecasts Retail CE sales tracking at more than 340,000 retail stores in 80 countries. Tracks U.S. factory to dealers shipments in more than 50 CE categories on a monthly and weekly basis.

18 Analysis Considerations: Geographical, Financial Mature North America Western Europe Developed APAC Developing Central /Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging APAC Middle East/ Africa Exchange Rates (FX) Sales Tax Tech Subsidies

19 Global Tech Markets Back to Growth in $1041bn Smartphone, tablet PC & emerging market strength offset sluggish developed markets 2012 $1034bn $ value hit by currency weakness outside North America 2013 Fcst $1068bn Smartphone & Tablet growth offset decline in other products 2014 Fcst $1055bn Smartphone & Tablet growth shifts further to low end 2010 $922bn Economic recovery +13% -1% +3% -1% +10% 2009 $836bn Global recession Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Source: GfK Digital World

20 Spending Growth in 2013 Sales growth for Tablets and Smartphones slowing, but remains robust compared to other categories. LCD TV still growing in low single digits. Year-end push from next-gen game consoles. Some spending momentum in North America.

21 Reasons for Spending Decline in 2014 $1.055 Trillion (-1%) Volumes Unit growth in tablets and smartphones reliant on lowend devices. ASPs coming down fast. Product / Pricing Mix Lower-end devices (and ASPs) required to penetrate lower consumer tiers of emerging markets. Impact to Tech Spending Developing market spending growth not enough to offset sluggish developed markets

22 REGIONS: Regional Spending Growth Picture in 2014 Remains Mixed

23 Growth Coming from Developing Markets Developing Markets 19% 20% 5% Mature Markets 8% 5% 9% 2% Fcst 2014 Fcst -5% -2% -4% Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Growth Source: GfK Digital World

24 Developing Markets Revenue Growth Momentum to Slow Fcst World 3% -1% Western Europe -3% -6% North America 3% -1% Developed Asia Emerging Asia -11% 15% -8% 1% Latin America 2% 2% Middle East & Africa 6% 6% C&E Europe/CIS 2% 0% Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Growth Source: GfK Digital World

25 Global Tech Spending Finds Equilibrium $549bn $$593bn $564bn $553bn $530bn Growth (2014 vs 2010) Mature Markets 60% 57% 55% 52% 50% -3% Developing Markets Est Fcst. 40% 43% 45% 48% 50% 41% $373bn $447m $470bn $514bn Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Mix Source: GfK Digital World $525bn

26 Emerging Asia Now Leads Tech Spending $922bn $1041bn $1034bn $1068bn $1055bn C&E Europe/CIS Middle East & Africa Latin America Emerging Asia Developed Asia North America Western Europe Fcst 2014 Fcst

27 CEA International Consumer Research CEA s Global Consumer Technology Trends research was designed and formulated by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA). It represents the findings of a quantitative study administered via Internet web forms to online national samples of 750 adults in each of the following markets during August USA China France Russia Czech Republic Israel Spain Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Poland UK 27

28 CE Spending: CHINA Past 12 Months (Mean) Personal CE Spending 916 USD (Mean) Household CE spending 1,262 USD Next 12 Months 61% Increase a lot Increase a little Stay about the same Decrease a little Decrease a lot Source: CEA Global Consumer Technology Trends (2013) Base: Online Chinese adults (n= 753) Q28 :Over the past 12 months how much has your household spent on CE products? Q29: Compared to the past 12 months, how do you expect your level of expenditure on consumer electronic products to change over the next year? Q44: And how much would you say that you have spent personally on consumer electronics products in the past 12 months? DK 28

29 Purchase Intent: CHINA Device Purchase Intent (% next 12 months) Indexed Difference vs. All Markets +/- Smartphone On Ear High Quality Headphones Portable MP3 Or Digital Media Player On Ear Headphones (any Type) Laptop/notebook/netbook Computer Digital camera (any Type) Television (any Type) Tablet Computer Portable Wireless Speakers High-definition TV (HDTV) HD Source: CEA Global Consumer Technology Trends (2013) Base: Online Chinese adults (n= 753) Q4: Which of the following devices will you purchase or upgrade in the next 3/6/12/more than 12 months? 29

30 DEVICES: Mobile, Connected Devices Continue to Drive Tech Spending

31 Smartphone & Tablet Revenue Growth offsetting contraction elsewhere, for now Smartphones and Tablets 43% Other Tech Devices Provisional Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Source: GfK Digital World 2014 Forecast

32 Global Tablet Unit Sales Forecast (000s) 340, , ,196 14,500 61, e 2014f Source: GfK Digital World

33 Tablets: Lower-Priced Models Boosting Adoption in Emerging Markets % 31% 33% 25% Global Tablet PC Unit Sales Mix 29% Other Developed Markets Emerging Markets North America 42% Source: GfK Digital World

34 Global Smartphone Unit Sales Forecast (000s) 1,007,423 1,241, , , , e 2014f Source: GfK Digital World

35 Smartphones: Emerging Markets Take The Lead As Lower-Priced Devices Open Up The Mass Market % 52% Developed Markets Emerging Markets 70% 30% Global Smartphone Unit Sales Mix Source: GfK Digital World

36 Spending (Revenue) on Smartphones & Tablets Slowing As Unit Growth Shifts Further To Low-End 2013 Prov 2014 Fcst TABLET PC SMARTPHONE LCD TV LASER PRINTER & MFD HOME AUDIO INKJET CARTRIDGE LASER CARTRIDGE INKJET PRINTER & MFD CAMCORDER VIDEO GAMES CONSOLE MONITOR MOBILE PC DESKTOP PC DIGITAL STILL CAMERA CAR NAVIGATION DVD PLAYER/RECORDER inc HD & Blu-ray PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYER PLASMA TV MOBILE PHONE -10% -39% Year on Year Change in Global Tech Device Sales Revenue ($) Source: GfK Digital World 30% 27% -44% -34% 9% 6% 21%

37 Spending Shift to Mobile Computing Devices Slowing 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Digital Still Camera Desk PC LCD TV 79% of Spending Feature Phone Mobile PC Tablet PC Smartphone 10% 0% Prov 2014 Fcst Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Mix - Top Tier Products Source: GfK Digital World

38 CONSUMER PERSPECTIVES

39 Device Use/Ownership Top 10 Devices Used/Owned NET: Television 95% NET: Television 95% NET: Television 93% Laptop/Notebo ok/netbook 76% Desktop Computer 83% Desktop Computer 81% Digital Camera 69% Smartphone 80% On Ear Headphones (any type) 81% Desktop Computers 69% Laptop/Notebook/Netbo ok 73% Feature Phone 80% HDTV 66% On Ear Headphones (any type) 73% Laptop/Notebook/Netbo ok 77% Source: CEA Global Consumer Technology Trends (2013) Base: Online American adults (n= 751) Q3: Which of the following technology devices do you personally use? 39

40 Future Tech Spending Plans Increase a lot Increase a little Stay about the same Decrease a little Decrease a lot Don t Know

41 Tech Purchasing Attitudes (%) They Give Me Access To The Information I Need At The Right Place And Time They Allow Me To Access Information I Would Not Otherwise Be Able To Access They Provide Me With The Tools That I Need To Succeed In Life They Give Me Access To The Information I Need At The Right Place And Time They Make Me More Efficient/productive They Provide Me With A Constant Source Of Entertainment - I Would Be Bored Without Them They Allow Me To Access Information I Would Not Otherwise Be Able To Access They Make Me More Efficient/productive They Provide Me With The Tools That I Need To Succeed In Life They Are An Extension Of Me - I Feel Lost Without Them They Provide Me With A Constant Source Of Entertainment - I Would Be Bored Without Them They Are An Extension Of Me - I Feel Lost Without Them Net Agree Net Agree

42 Tech Purchasing Attitudes (%) They Give Me Access To The Information I Need At The Right Place And Time They Allow Me To Access Information I Would Not Otherwise Be Able To Access They Give Me Access To The Information I Need At The Right Place And Time They Allow Me To Access Information I Would Not Otherwise Be Able To Access They Make Me More Efficient/productive 63 They Make Me More Efficient/productive 74 They Provide Me With A Constant Source Of Entertainment - I Would Be Bored Without Them 62 They Provide Me With The Tools That I Need To Succeed In Life 68 They Provide Me With The Tools That I Need To Succeed In Life 55 They Are An Extension Of Me - I Feel Lost Without Them 67 They Are An Extension Of Me - I Feel Lost Without Them 49 They Provide Me With A Constant Source Of Entertainment - I Would Be Bored Without Them 58 Net Agree Net Agree

43 Global Market Update Summary 2014 global technology spending -1% to Trillion USD Shift to lower-end devices in emerging markets pulling down ASPs. Emerging Asia region (led by China) now leads tech spending (2014: 282 Trillion USD, 26%) Global consumer tech spending remains driven by mobile, connected devices.