Textile Industry Challenges

Transcription

1 6th Breakout Session: Textile Industry Challenges Dr. Christian Schindler Director General International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) ICAC Plenary Meeting 2013 October 3, :00 to 15:30 Cartagena / Columbia 1

2 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 2

3 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 3

4 Fibers Volume ( ) Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 4

5 Fibers Share ( ) Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 5

6 World Textile Mill Consumption by Fiber ( ) Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 6

7 World Textile Mill Consumption by Region ( ) Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 7

8 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 8

9 World's 15 leading textile exporters, 2011 China EU27 India USA South Korea Hong Kong Taiwan Turkey Pakistan Japan Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Mexico Malaysia re-exports intra-eu-trade Rising stars between 2005 and 2011 Vietnam (up by 32% per annum) China (up by 15% per annum) India (up by 10% per annum) Turkey (up by 7% per annum) Malaysia (up by 7% per annum) Thailand (up by 7% per annum) Losers between 2005 and 2011 Hong Kong (down by 3% per annum) Mexico (unchanged from 2005) EU (up by only 1% per annum) Source: Textile Outlook International from WTO data US$ bn Source: Textile Outlook International from WTO data. 9

10 World's 15 leading textile importers, 2011 EU27 USA China Hong Kong Japan Vietnam Turkey Mexico South Korea Indonesia Bangladesh Canada Brazil Russia India re-exports intra-eu-trade Growth markets between 2005 and 2011 Indonesia (up by 40% per annum) Brazil (up by 24% per annum) Russia (up by 20% per annum) Vietnam (up by 17% per annum) Bangladesh (up by 15% per annum) India (up by 10% per annum) Falling markets between 2005 and 2011 Hong Kong (down by 4% per annum) Mexico (down by 1% per annum) Source: Textile Outlook International from WTO data US$ bn Source: Textile Outlook International from WTO data. 10

11 World's 15 leading clothing exporters, 2011 China EU27 Hong Kong Bangladesh India Turkey Vietnam Indonesia USA Mexico Malaysia Thailand Pakistan Sri Lanka Cambodia re-exports intra-eu-trade Rising stars between 2005 and 2011 Bangladesh (up by 19% per annum) Vietnam (up by 19% per annum) China (up by 13% per annum) Malaysia (up by 11% per annum) Cambodia (up by 11% per annum) Losers between 2005 and 2011 Mexico (down by 7% per annum) Hong Kong (down by 2% per annum) USA (up by only 1% per annum) Source: Textile Outlook International from WTO data US$ bn Source: Textile Outlook International from WTO data 11

12 World's 15 leading clothing importers, 2011 EU27 USA Japan Hong Kong Canada Russia Switzerland South Korea Australia China Turkey UAE Norway Saudi Arabia Mexico re-exports intra-eu-trade Collectively, the EU, the USA and Japan accounted for 72% of world clothing Imports. Growth markets between 2005 and 2011 Russia (up by 42% per annum) Turkey (up by 27% per annum) China (up by 16% per annum) South Korea (up by 13% per annum) UAE (up by 13% per annum) Source: Textile Outlook International from W TO data US$ bn Source: Textile Outlook International from WT.O data 12

13 Billion. USD Export Textiles & Clothing top exporters - Quelle: World Trade Organization, International Trade Statistics 13

14 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 14

15 USA Net Trade in Apparel/Textiles Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 15

16 South America Net Trade in Apparel/Textiles Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 16

17 West Europe Net Trade in Apparel/Textiles Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 17

18 India Net Trade in Apparel/Textiles Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 18

19 China Net Trade in Apparel/Textiles Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 19

20 Turkey Net Trade in Apparel/Textiles Source: PCI Fibres (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 20

21 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 21

22 China s Share in Global Textile & Apparel Trade (in USD) Source: Wazir, The Road to

23 Apparel Market Size of China/India and USA/EU in 2025 Source: Wazir, The Road to

24 China s GDP and GDP/Capita Projections Source: Wazir, The Road to

25 Chinese Exports (% change yoy; based on USD) China Exports (7 months) 2013 (7 months) Apparel Textiles/Fibres Combined Source: PCI Fibres Report (Sep 2013); Official Trade Data, GTIS. 25

26 GDP growth constant 2000 US$ China RoW World % China s share of global GDP: % 26

27 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 27

28 Divergent Cotton Prices Source: PCI Fibres 28

29 Million tons World Cotton Ending Stocks Stocks to use ratio Source: ICAC (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 29

30 China National Reserve Million tons Source: ICAC (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 30

31 Manufacturing Costs (excl. Raw Material) Ring-Spinning (Ne 30) 2010 vs

32 Total Production Costs (incl. Raw Material) Ring-Spinning (Ne 30) 2010 vs ITMF 32

33 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 33

34 Shipped Short-staple Spindles Shipped Million spindles World & Regions -27% Installed Million spindles World Asia Europe Americas Africa Installed Capacities - World

35 Shipped Short-staple Spindles Shipped Million spindles China's Share -28% World China 35

36 Shipped Short-staple Spindles Shipped Million spindles Biggest Investors World Asia China India Indonesia Turkey Bangladesh World Asia China India Indonesia Turkey Bangladesh 36

37 Shipped Short-staple Spindles Shipped Million spindles +551% +22% +42% -21% -16% +93% China vs. India 13% +94% -9% +21% -39% -25% +37% -46% +56% +13% +72% +6% China India -28% -21% 37

38 Shipped Open-end Rotors % Shipped '000 rotors World & Regions Installed '000 rotors 8'400 8' '079 8'019 8'020 8'144 7'975 8'123 7'840 7'783 7'925 8'000 7' '600 7' ' ' World Asia Europe Americas Africa Installed Capacity - World 7'000 38

39 Shipped Open-end Rotors % Shipped '000 rotors China's Share World China 39

40 Shipped Open-End Rotors Shipped '000 rotors Biggest Investors World Asia China India Turkey Brazil Uzbekistan 40

41 Shipped Texturing Spindles Shipped '000 spindles World & Regions -13% World Asia Americas Europe Africa 41

42 Shipped Texturing Spindles Shipped 800 '000 spindles China's Share -22% World China 42

43 Shipped Texturing Spindles Shipped '000 spindles Biggest Investors World Asia China India Japan Thailand Turkey

44 Shipped Shuttle-less Looms Shipped '000 looms World & Regions -44% Since 2010 more Chinese participants World Asia Europe Americas Africa 44

45 Shipped Shuttle-less Looms Shipped '000 looms China's Share -33% Since 2010 more Chinese participants World China 45

46 Shipped Shuttleless Looms ' '000 80'000 Shipped looms World Since 2010 more Chinese participants 60'000 40'000 20'000 ' Rapier/Projectile Air-Jet Water-Jet 46

47 Shipped Water-jet Looms Shipped '000 looms China's Share -63% 80 Since 2010 more Chinese participants World China 47

48 Shipped Water-jet Looms '000 90'000 80'000 70'000 60'000 50'000 40'000 30'000 20'000 10'000 0 Shipped Looms 86'455 80'594 5 Biggest Investors 58'886 10'198 3'727 1'347 1'188 World Asia China India Indonesia Korea Vietnam 48

49 Shipped Circular Knitting Machines % 40'000 Shipped Machines 35'000 World & Regions 30'000 25'000 20'000 15'000 10'000 5' World Asia Europe Americas Africa 49

50 Shipped Circular Knitting Machines '000 Shipped Machines 35'000 China's Share +33% 30'000 25'000 20'000 15'000 10'000 5' World China 50

51 Shipped Circular Knitting Machines '000 35'000 Shipped Machines 36'642 33'588 5 Biggest Investors 30'000 28'281 25'000 20'000 15'000 10'000 5' '343 1'196 '735 '409 World Asia China Indonesia India Bangladesh Brazil 51

52 Long-term View ( ) Spinning Machines Weaving Machines 52

53 Shipments of Short-staple Spindles Shipped Million spindles Since 2000 including Chinese producers World China 53

54 Shipments of Shuttle-less Looms Shipped '000 looms Since 2000 including Chinese producers World China 54

55 Shipments of Short-staple Spindles Shipped million spindles Since 2000 including Chinese producers. Spindles Others Spindles India Spindles China 55

56 Shipments of Shuttle-less Looms Shipped '000 Looms Since 2000 including Chinese producers. Others China 56

57 Geographical Shift of Short-staple Spindles ( ) Source: Gherzi Textil Organisation (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 57

58 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 58

59 Short-termPerspective 59

60 Short-termPerspective 60

61 Short-termPerspective 61

62 Short-termPerspective 62

63 Projection Real GDP Source: IMF World Advanced Economies Developping Economies Euro Area Germany Greece Emerging Europe Turkey United States South America Mexico Brazil Developing Asia China India

64 ITMF s State of Trade Report World Trend 2/13 3/13 Source: ITMF

65 ITMF s State of Trade Report Asia Trend 2/13 3/13 Source: ITMF

66 ITMF s State of Trade Report Europe Trend 2/13 3/13 Source: ITMF

67 ITMF s State of Trade Report China Trend 2/13 3/13 Source: ITMF

68 ITMF s State of Trade Report India Trend 2/13 3/13 Source: ITMF

69 ITMF s State of Trade Report Brazil Trend 2/13 3/13 Source: ITMF

70 US Cotton Yarn Exports 2013 (Jan-July) 4 importantdestinationsforus cottonyarnsin thefirst7 monthsof2013 are: 1) Honduras (+6%) 2) Dominican Republic(-7%) 3) China (+ 200%) 4) Columbia (+165%) Source: PCI, Fibres Report (No. 301, Sep 2013) 70

71 Relation between World Economic Growth and Textile Consumption EconomicGrowth Rate (GNP) in % Textile Consumption in % Source: Morris, D. andstogdon, A. (1996), World MarketsforCotton, Forecaststo2000, Economist Intelligence Unit, London, UK. In the carpet and home furnishing and upholstery the negative correlation between low level of real income growth and per capita consumption is even more pronounced: -15 to -20%. Source: International Newsletter (2008) CIRFS Market Forecasts: World markets for interior textiles to 2012, UK

72 Contents 1)Fibers 2)Textile / Apparel Trade by Country 3)Textile / Apparel Trade by Fibers 4)China s Role 5)Cotton 6)Textile Machinery Shipments 7)Economic Outlook Short-term Perspective 8)Economic Outlook-Long-term Perspective 72

73 Long-term Perspective: 1) Growingworldpopulation(million) , , , , ,943 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs 73

74 Long-term Perspective: 2) Growing global GDP, current prices(billion USD) Year World USA China India ,943 14,624 5,745 1, ,922 18,029 9,982 2,411 Growth % ) GDP per capita, current prices(usd) Year World USA China India ,568 47,120 4,280 1, ,060 55,409 7,258 1,857 Growth % Source: IMF 74

75 Long-term Perspective: 4) Higher per capita fiber consumption Year World West Europe Turkey North America China India Source: PCI-Fibres, The Fiber Year, ITMF 75

76 Long-term Perspective: 5) Increasing Fiber Consumption World fibre consumption, mn tons Source: ICAC 76

77 Long-term Perspective: 5) Increasing Fiber Consumption Global cotton consumption is expected to increase, though cotton s share on global fiber consumption will continue to decrease. Share of cotton in world fibre consumption, % Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) 77

78 Long-term Perspective: 6) New applications for textiles (i.e. technical textiles) 1) Agrotech, 2) Buildtech, 3) Clothtech, 4) Geotech, 5) Hometech, 6) Indutech, 7) Medtech, 8) Mobiltech, 9) Oekotech, 10) Packtech, 11) Protech, 12) Sporttech 78

79 Source: Gherzi Textil Organisation (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 79

80 Source: Gherzi Textil Organisation (ITMF Annual Conference 2013, Bregenz) 80

81 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 81