DATA FOR DEVELOPMENT June 13, 2017

Transcription

1 DATA FOR DEVELOPMENT June 13, 2017

2 1 Recent economic developments and outlook 2 Data for development Malaysia s development and its data ecosystem o Data and the public sector- public service delivery o Data and academia- the case for homegrown research o Data and the private sector- productivity and efficiency 3 Role of data providers and their key collaborators in Malaysia Collecting data Disseminating data Sharing and collaborating on data Feedback from data users The way forward for Malaysia- from microsystems to an ecosystem 4

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4 GDP q/q saar, and annual growth, y/y, % 8.0 q/q, saar 7.0 Annual Source: CEIC, DOSM, World Bank staff calculations

5 Contribution to GDP, y/y, % Private consumption Fixed investment Change in inventory Government Net exports Real GDP growth Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 4 Source: CEIC, DOSM, World Bank staff calculations

6 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Unemployment rate, % Labor force participation rate, % 3.6 Labour force participation Unemployment rate Source: DOSM

7 Annual median growth rate, % Total Urban Rural 6 Source: DOSM

8 Balances, % of GDP, last four quarters 15.0 Current Transfers Services Balance 10.0 Current Account Primary and Secondary Income Goods Balance Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 7 Source: CEIC, DOSM, BNM

9 Change in import component, y/y, % 50 Intermediate Capital Consumption Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 8 Source: BNM

10 3/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2017 2/2/2017 6/2/2017 8/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /2/2017 1/3/2017 3/3/2017 7/3/2017 9/3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/2017 Currency/ US$, Rebase = Jan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Source: CEIC, BNM, World Bank staff calculations Note: A decrease indicates appreciation

11 30/9/2016 7/10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/2016 4/11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/2016 2/12/2016 8/12/ /12/ /12/ /12/2016 4/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2017 3/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/ /2/2017 6/3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/ day rolling standard deviation, MYR/US$ Source: BNM, World Bank staff calculations

12 Outstanding loans, y/y, % 12 Total Businesses Household Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 11 Source: BNM

13 Annual growth, % 5.0 Current estimate (June 2017) Previous estimate (January 2017) f 2018f 2019f f 2018f 2019f f 2018f 2019f World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies Source: World Bank staff calculations 12

14 f 2018f 2019f 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q Global industrial production and goods trade volume growth q/q, annualized, % average Global commodity prices Annual change, y/y, % 30 Crude oil Wheat Soybeans Copper Industrial production Trade Source: World Bank June 2017 Global Economic Prospects 13

15 Annual growth, % f 2018f 2019f Source: CEIC, DOSM, World Bank staff calculations 14

16 Balance of GDP, % f Source: CEIC, DOSM, World Bank staff calculations 15

17 GDP Growth is expected to accelerate to 4.9 percent in 2017, supported by Strong labor market and ongoing income-support measures Stabilization of global commodity prices, higher trade growth Risks to GDP growth in the short-term stem mainly from external developments Threats of protectionism to global trade Sudden reversal in oil prices, financial conditions Continue to Maintain solid macroeconomic framework Higher GDP growth opens up room to accelerate fiscal consolidation Accelerate structural reforms to improve productivity 16

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19 Digital data overtook analog around 1998 and in 2013 amounted to 46 billion trillion bytes In optimally compressed bytes 1.0E E+21 In optimally compressed kbps High income Rest of the world Power of telecommunications capacity has also grown exponentially over the last decade 1.0E E E E+17 Analog Digital Total 1.0E Source: World Development Report 2016

20 Data openness varies across countries and regions Component scale 100 ODB-Score-Scaled 90 Readiness-Scaled Implementation-Scaled 80 Impact-Scaled More openness and data accessibility is positively correlated with higher GDP per capita GDP per capita, USD thousands Open Data Barometer-Score-Scaled Source: Open Data Barometer, World Development Indicators, World Bank staff calculations

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22 How more openness and data availability can impact service delivery 1 Informing citizens 5 More targeted policies and measures 2 Feedback on service delivery 4 Accountability 3 Improving management 21 Source: World Bank

23 High-income countries with higher open data scores produces more research per capita Log publication per capita HKG THA MYS PHL NPL CHN IDN PAK SGP JPN KOR IND AUS TWN Open Data Score as well as producing higher quality research Citation ratio Source: Open Knowledge Institute, IDEAS, World Bank staff calculations 0.0 MYS IDN SGP KOR JPN IND PHL PAK HKG CHN THA NPL AUS TWN Open Data Score

24 1 The private sector is both producer and users of data 2 Enhanced data is both an input and a result of digital economy 3 Governments have recognized the value of big data for the private sector 4 Opportunity for a data exchange market for the private sector exists 23

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26 Regularly inform actual and potential data users about what is available and get feedback about what is needed Inform Collect Role of data producers Create, compile information to be inserted into an information processing system. Disseminate 25 Work with governments and service providers to reduce the financial and procedural burden for data users to access data Source: World Bank Collaborate Provide data in easy to use, machine readable formats and researchfriendly formats

27 Collect DOSM s process is in line with international standards (GSBPM) Scope of DOSM has expanded with development DOSM s statisticians are deployed to various agencies DOSM and MAMPU has also looked into ways of adopting big data analytics (BDA) in the public sector DOSM has outlined Transformation Plan to upgrading its systems and performance Source: DOSM 26

28 Collect The statistical workforce should reflect current and future demands, and technology needs 27 Number of employees, percent of total, Malaysia Managerial Support Source: DOSM, World Bank Note: High income countries is the average of Singapore, Spain and Netherlands Advanced economies

29 Dissem. Most open Least open Source: Open Data Barometer, 2015

30 Dissem. Malaysia s internet usage surpasses most regional comparators as well as secure internet servers Internet user (per 100 people), Secure internet servers, per 1million people, Source: World Development Indicators, 2016

31 UK Canada France US Korea Australia New Zealand Japan Netherlands Mexico Sweden Brazil Philippines Singapore India Kenya Indonesia Turkey South Africa Peru Tunisia Malaysia Thailand China Vietnam Dissem. Malaysia s open data score lags many high-income and regional countries ODB aggregated scores, Malaysia sub-categories scores are also lower against the region s average ODB score of sub-categories, 2016 Malaysia Economic impact Social impact Political impact Datasets: Accountabili ty Governmen t policies East Asia and Pacific Datasets: Social policy Governmen t action Citizens & civil rights Entreprene urs & businesses Datasets: Innovation 30 Source: Open Data Barometer (ODB) Note: The ODB scores are calculated based on three categories; readiness, implementation and impact. Each of the sub-categories contributes to these three broad categories.

32 Dissem. Clear government support Aspiration by the government to be among the top 30 countries in the Open Data Barometer by 2020 Available building blocks Malaysia has the necessary building blocks to improve its data accessibility and openness e.g. funding, infrastructure Legal and regulatory framework Existing legal and regulatory framework could benefit from refinement More access to granular data Malaysia is a data-rich environment, but more high quality, granular data should be released 31 Source: World Bank

33 Collab. Inform Collaboration Federated system no formal central control mechanism, although DOSM is the largest statistical agency in the country Databases that are maintained by various ministries are sometimes not fully integrated at the national level or disclosed Inform Civil society, business community and academia in Malaysia are avid users of various types of data How further collaborate? Initial steps to manage occasional feedback from the public on data accuracy, perception and misinterpretation have been done 32 Source: World Bank

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35 Current data ecosystem Potential data ecosystem in the future 34 Source: World Bank

36 4 Engagement should meet the growing appetite for more opportunities to interact and work with government data Collect 1 The workforce and work process of data collection should move in line with the country s economic progress and growing demand for data Inform Role of data producers Disseminate 2 Efforts should focus on improving access to more micro data and refining the current legal framework 3 35 Collaborations among Collaborate government agencies and other producers should focus on addressing data fragmentation

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