Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends. Wen-Yi Kuo, Ph.D. Senior Director Compal Electronics Inc.

Transcription

1 1 Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends Wen-Yi Kuo, Ph.D. Senior Director Compal Electronics Inc. wy_kuo@compal.com

2 2 Mobile Device Industry Value Chain Key Part vendor Chip set vendor Key SW comp vendor EMS Brand (OEM) operator Channel consumer/ corporate Open OS vendor Run-time Env. Vendor ODM Content Provider Vertical integrator

3 SUBSCRIBER SHARE IS HIGHLY CONSOLIDATED IN MOST REGIONS Percent of subscriber share by wireless operators Millions of subscribers, 2003 U.S. Verizon 24 Cingular 15 AT&T 14 Other U.K. T-Mobile 26 Orange 25 O2 24 Vodafone 24 Other 53 Germany T-Mobile 42 Vodafone 37 E-plus 12 9 Other 62 France Orange 48 SFR 36 Bouygues Italy TIM 47 Vodafone 34 Wind 18 Other 1 56 Spain Telefonica 53 Vodafone25 Amena Sweden Telia Mobitel 45 Tele2 39 Vodafone 16 9 Korea SK Telecom 55 KTF 31 LG 14 Telecom 34 Japan NTT DoCoMo 57 KDDI 20 Vodafone 18 Other 5 81 China China Mobile 64 China Unicom Source: IDC Black book,

4 Handset Supply as Key to Operator s Success DoCoMo launched FOMA (WCDMA) on Oct 1, FOMA is not flying until good handsets are available in March, 2003 Subscriber number has crossed 1M in Oct, Italy shut off new sub sign-on in Oct-Dec, 03 due to shortage of handsets. Key turning point is due to good handsets & good coverage Expect to grow into 1.3M subs Spring has come, look forward to the hot summer. quoted from DoCoMo GM. 4

5 Layers & Functions of a Mobile Device SW DSP FW MMI Applications Run-time Environment Open OS Middleware L2/L3 SW RTOS Application Processing HW L1 SW Platform Driver System Knowhow Inter- Operability Tests, Quality Tests HW BB HW RF Peripherals 5

6 6 Ecosystem Fight Mobile Device s Nervous System Operating Systems Incumbent OEMs Activity heating up as players seek to form partnerships/ ecosystems that will create standards Chip Set Design Silicon Capability 3 rd -party application platform vendors.

7 Wholesale Price $400+ $ $ Mobile Device Categories % of 2002 Shipments (E) Characteristics Smart-phone Near-PDA functionality Large screen, variety of I/O Open OS, office app. and huge memory Ability to run 3rd-party app after sale High-End Feature Phones Feature rich but without Open OS Usually with attractive design/form factor Address more on personal and entertainment aspects Mid-Range Feature Phones Some multimedia applications Limited software and processing capabilities (e.g., voice recognition) Primary users Professionals Affluent Affluent Young adults Teens Channels Direct Sales VARs/SIs Carrier Stores Electronics Stores Carrier Stores Electronics Stores Mobile Dealers Dealers General Retail Carrier Stores $150 and less 50+ Source: Gartner; ARC; Giga; McKinsey Low End Mobile Phone Primarily for voice, some SMS capabilities Very limited ability for applications Dumb terminal for mass market penetration Low-volume users General Retail (security Carrier Stores conscious) Teens 7

8 Category Evolution Worldwide mobile device sales to end users $ Billions Shipments Millions of units Basic phones Enhanced phones 1 Smart phones/ High-end feature phones 2 Wireless PDAs 3 ASP erosion is canceling out ovrerall shipment growth, resulting in overall flat market Smartphones and wireless PDAs growing to almost half of 2005 sales $15-20 billion sold through enterprise channels in Network-based content delivered to terminal with limited client software (e.g., WAP browser, basic PIM); example: Ericsson T68 2 Voice centric, at least 1/8 VGA; examples: Ericsson R380, Symbian Pearl, Orange SPV 3 Data centric; typically keyboard/pen & ¼ VGA; examples: Nokia 9110, Symbian Quartz & Crystal, Microsoft Pocket PC Phone Edition urce: Gartner; McKinsey 8

9 What devices could fit the market? Converge or Diverge Wireless/Communications Industry Pocket PC WebPad SubNotebook Computer Industry Notebook obile Phone Feature Phone Smart Phone Portable Media Device Consumer Elec. Industry Digital Camera, Digital camcorder, Media player 9

10 Features to Come in Mobile Devices Entertainment: Music, Gamming, Java applications, Theme/skin download, Ringtones, Photos, Video clip, streaming Picture mail Phone call: Video, Voice, Hand free, Push-to-Talk Messaging: SMS, MMS, IMPS, Group-cast LBS, infotainment Data Storage: Recording Retrieving Multimedia playback DRM Local Comm: IRDA, BT, USB WLAN Data Access: PIM, Phone/date book Local synch Remote synch Corporate data base Browsing Financial: Micro-payment Ad, E-coupon 10

11 11 Menu for Technology Combo Consumer Communication Video Audio Game Computing User profile Usage combo Short Life Cycle Value (Price to Performance) Age/Gender/Group Industry Design Durability (ALT) Safety Fool Proof GSM/GPRS/UMTS CDMA/ED-DO Multi-band, -tech RF Performance Standby/Talk time SMS/MMS/ Interoperability User scenarios IMPS / Push to Talk LBS Multi-media Processing Image Optimization MPEG4, H.263, H264 Digital Rights Storage Power Management 3D Graphic Video clips, streaming, msg Melody MP3 AAC ATRAC 3 Stereo/ 3D Audio HQ Speaker Acoustic Surround Content Square off in SONY/Microsoft/ Nintendo/Nokia JAVA Game Native Game 3D Graphic Party-gaming Local/remote synch Power Consumption Intel / Microsoft Office App. Corporate database Vertical integration Storage Input method Display issue