DIGITAL SUBSCRIBER LINE (DSL) MARKET STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES FORECASTS 2001 TO 2006

Transcription

1 DIGITAL SUBSCRIBER LINE (DSL) MARKET STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES FORECASTS 2001 TO 2006 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1 TOC-1

2 1. DIGITAL SUBSCRIBER LINE (DSL) MARKET DESCRIPTION 1.1 DSL Technology xdsl(digital Subscriber Line) Group Of Technologies Fiber-To-The-Curb Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) Family Of Technologies Core Networks Variants Of DSL Universal Coverage ADSL Suppliers Competitive Local Exchange Carriers Replacing T1 And Dial Up Modems DSL For Business Subscribers 1-10 Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) Residential Positioning Consolidated Solutions Positioning DSL For Business Markets VDSL The Copper Superhighway VDSL Solutions Growing Demand For Broadband Telecommunications Total System Solutions DSL Service Connection Global Manufacturing Product Innovation 1-18 TOC-2

3 1.17 DSL CLEC Market CLECs T1/E1 Access Frame Relay Over DSL DIGITAL SUBSCRIBER LINE MARKET FORECASTS 2.1 Mission-Critical Internet-Based Applications Traditional Access Solutions T1 services Providers Of DSL Concentrators Broadband Access Technologies Proliferation Of Broadband DSL Lines Shipped Number Of DSL Lines DSLAMs ADSL ADSL Market Shares ADSL Market Forecasts Symmetric DSL (SDSL) Sdsl Market Shares SDSL DSLAM Market Forecasts 2-28 TOC-3

4 CLECs and SDSL Growth Potential Modems DSL Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) Market Participants DSL CPE Market Shares and Forecasts ADSL CPE Market Shares ADSL CPE Market Forecasts SDSL CPE Market Shares SDSL CPE Market Forecasts DSL Regional Market Forecasts DSL Market Forecasts By Segment High Speed DSL (HDSL and HDSL2) High-Bit-Rate Digital Subscriber Line Technology (HDSL) Very High Speed DSL (VDSL) Integrated Network Solutions Frame Relay Subscriber Market Revenue Forecasts DSL Services ADSL, xdsl Subscriber Market Forecasts Cable Modem Subscribers Broadband Wireless LMDS And Wireless IP Solutions The Internet As A Market Force In Telecommunications Intensifying Competition On A Global Scale Liberalization Of Carrier Markets Competitive Forces Business Forces Driving Change Pace Of Technological And Product Change 2-65 TOC-4

5 Response To Change Circuit Networks Vs Packet Networks Convergence Of Voice And Data Need For Internet Enabled Equipment Service Provider Deregulation Issues Internet Protocol (IP) Mission Critical Functionality E-Services e-services Partnering Internet Internet Users And Services Internet Users Online services Digital Loop Carrier Market Market Growth DLC Market Driving Forces DLC Market Forecasts Fiber Co-Location Types Of Customers Accelerated Migration From Circuit-Based Networks XDSL PRODUCT DESCRIPTION AND STRATEGIC POSITIONING XDSL Strategic Positioning 3-1 TOC-5

6 3.1.1 Alcatel DSL Copper Mountain Solution Copper Mountain DSL Full Coverage Copper Mountain Interoperability Copper Mountain Multiple Services Fujitsu Fujitsu SDH For The Access Network NEC ADSL NEC Integrated Hardware/Software Solution For xdsl Paradyne DSL Solutions Orckit DSL Strategic Positioning Orckit Fastinternet System Architecture ADC / Pairgain Strategy ADC / PairGain HiGain Systems ADSL Alcatel Newbridge Common Architecture Cisco 2600-DC Series Modular Access Platform Cisco 2600 Series Modular Access Routers NEC ADSL Multiservice Platform System For Time Periodic Noise Environments Fujitsu's Multi-Service Solution Central Office Equipment DSLAMs Alcatel DSL Delivery Platform Alcatel DSL Central Office Equipment DSLAM Alcatel ADSL DSLAM Support For Flow Of Services 3-28 TOC-6

7 3.2.4 Alcatel ADSL Open System API Alcatel 7350 ASAM Broadband Multiservice Platforms Lucent Stinger DSL Access Concentrator Paradyne DSLAM Nokia DSLAM Fujitsu Asymmetric DSL (ADSL) Orckit DSLAM Orckit Fastinternet IP DSLAM System And ADSL Orckit Fastinternet FR DSLAM System Orckit Splitter Shelf ADC Avidia System Siemens Xpresslink SDSL Copper Mountain Copperedge 150 DSL Concentrators Copperedge DSL concentrators Copperedge 200 DSL Concentrators Copper Mountain IDSL Line Cards Copper Mountain SDSL Line Cards Paradyne SDSL Fujitsu Symmetric DSL (SDSL, HDSL and VDSL) ADSL Modems Siemens / Efficient Networks Nortel Networks / Efficient Com modems 3-47 TOC-7

8 3.4.4 Fujitsu Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) Alcatel Speed Touch Pro ADSL Router Alcatel DSL Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) ADC Avidia Modems ADC / Pairgain Megabit Modem ADC / Pairgain Megabit Modem CRA Orckit HDSL Modem Orckit ATU-R xdsl CPE Modem Orkcit POTS/UNI Customer Premises Splitter ZyXEL Prestige 642 ADSL Router Zyxel Prestige 600 Family SDSL Modems And CPE Copperrocket Customer Premise Equipment XDSL Network Management Alcatel xdsl Network Management Alcatel Management Platforms Copperview Network Management Software Tools Fujitsu FDX Multi-Service Broadband Solution Fujitsu FDX DSL Access Concentrator Paradyne Network Management Orkcit Orview Plus Network Management System DSL Wireless Systems Alcatel's Speed Touch Wireless ADSL router Nokia High-Speed Symmetrical Connection And Wireless LAN ADC / Pairgain Network Management Function 3-69 TOC-8

9 3.8 DLC Feeder Market HDSL Efficiency In The DLC Feeder Market Pairgain HiGain HDSL Line AFC DMAX1120 Multiservice Access Platform ADC / Pairgain Megabit Access Products Positioning For Voice Over DSL Paradyne Hotwire Grandslam ADC / Pairgain HDSL Line Frame Relay DSL Paradyne Command Activated Frame Relay Paradyne Framesaver DSL DSU/CSU And Router Versions Central Office DSLAM Operating Systems Cisco IOS Software Information Appliances Samsung Information Appliances Lucent Internet Appliances Nokia Desktop Flat Panel Displays Lucent Wireless Broadband Spyglass Network Appliance Browser Intel XDSL LOCAL LOOP ACCESS TECHNOLOGY TOC-9

10 4.1 Digital Subscriber Line (xdsl) Technologies Digital Subscriber Line (xdsl) Services Development History Types of DSL Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) Rate-Adaptive Digital Subscriber Line (R-ADSL) ADSL Lite G.Lite IDSL ISDN Digital Subscriber Line (IDSL) SDSL Single-Line Digital Subscriber Line (SDSL) HDSL High Bit-Rate Digital Subscriber Line (HDSL) Very High Bit-Rate Digital Subscriber Line (VDSL) VDSL VDSL In The Network VDSL System Features VDSL Modulation ADSL to VDSL Migration OpenDSL End-To-End Service Provisioning For ADSL Goals For ILMI-Based Service Provisioning Automatic Service Provisioning Flows Automatic Service Provisioning Flows 4-21 TOC-10

11 4.8 User Service Provisioning Real-Time Session Selection CPE Automatic Service Selection Applications ADSL Modems Work Technology Comparison DSL Modulation Upgrading Digital Loop Carriers (DLCs) Broadband Topology DSL Security Voice-Over-DSL DSL COMPANY PROFILES Selected Member Companies Of Open DSL Forum Com Acer Acer Netxus Revenue ADC Telecommunications Advanced Fibre Communications (AFC) Alcatel Avaya Cayman Systems 5-12 TOC-11

12 5.9 Copper Mountain Copper Mountain Strategy Copper Mountain Major Customers Copper Mountain Position In The Business DSL Market Copper Mountain Targets Multi-Tenant Building Deployments Copper Mountain Drives Interoperability Copper Mountain Addresses Emerging Opportunities In Residential Market Copper Mountain Interoperability Partnerships Copper Mountain Strategic Objectives Fujitsu Telecommunications Fujitsu Customer Base Orckit Communications And Fujitsu Network Lucent Technologies NEC Corporation NEC ADSL NEC / Wind River Pricing And Availability Netopia Netopia Revenues Nokia Orckit Communications Orckit Strengths And Challenges In DSL Market Orckit Revenue 5-38 TOC-12

13 Orckit Customers Dynarc And Orckit Communications Paradyne Samsung Samsung - Leader In The Digital Era Markets Addressed Samsung Semiconductor Samsung Siemens Siemens Information And Communication Networks Group (ICN) Siemens Broadband Access Xpresslink In Bruchsal Siemens Solutions For Broadband Access Siemens / Efficient Networks Efficient Networks Sales And Worldwide Presence Efficient Network Customers Efficient Networks Key Customers Efficient Networks Efficient Networks Revenue Westell Westell Strategy Westell Revenues Westell Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) Wind River ZyXEL Communications 5-58 TOC-13

14 ZyXEL Customers STRATEGIC INITIATIVES AND APPLICATIONS IN MARKETS Alcatel Rapid Deployment ADSL Applications Access To The Internet Video On Demand Video Conferencing Telecommuting Tele Medicine Telelearning Interactive Network Games Broadcast Audio & TV Online Shopping Copper Mountain Hotel Initiative Fujitsu Multi-Service Access Controller For xdsl Enabled Set-Top Boxes Samsung Internet Box Avaya Paradyne's Hotwire Grandslam To Provide DSL Solutions 6-9 TOC-14

15 7. SERVICE PROVIDER POSITIONING FOR DSL 7.1 Types Of And Issues Relating To High Speed Access RBOC Strategic Positioning For DSL Qwest KPNQwest SBC SBC Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL) BellSouth Digital And Data Verizon Cisco Powered Network Program Alltel Communications Axxent Corporation Babyxl C1 Communications Cable & Wireless Capital Networks Chunghwa, Taiwan Cincinnati Bell Colt Telecom Group plc Conectiv Communications Digital Broadband Communications Dynarc Estonian Telephone Company, Ltd TOC-15

16 7.21 First Telecom, Germany Harvardnet i Infohighway Communications IP Services Kuopio Telephone Flexible Homeworking LMKI Communications MCI Worldcom Mobilcom City Line GmbH Netstream Corporation New Edge Networks Ntegrity USA NTT / Verio Pathnet Telecommunications Pointshare Powernet Global Communications Request DSL Rhythms Telecom Italia Telint Global Telus Planet Internet Services Telia Vectris Communications 7-29 TOC-16

17 List of Tables and Figures Table xdsl Supplier Categories Table DSL Equipment For Business Subscribers Table VDSL Solutions Table Margin Analysis For A Narrowband ISP Table A Cost And Performance Comparison Of A Two -Mile Connection For The Three Types of T1 Deployment Table DSL Applications For Businesses Table Businesses Use Of The Internet Table DSL Target Markets Table Relative Efficiency Of The Various Transmission Methodologies Table TOC-17

18 Principal Competitive Factors In DSL Market Table Broadband Access Solutions Table DSL Lines Installed, ILEC, CLEC, IXC, Worldwide 2000 Table DSL Lines Shipped, ILEC, CLEC, IXC, Worldwide 2000 Table DSL Market Forecasts, Units, By Segment, Figure Worldwide DSLAM Market Shares, 2000 Table DSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Figure ADSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Table ADSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Figure ADSL DSLAM Market Forecasts, Worldwide, Figure SDSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Table SDSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Figure SDSL DSLAM Market Forecasts, Worldwide, TOC-18

19 Table Providers of DSL CPE Figure ADSL DSLAM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Table DSL CPE Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Figure Total ADSL CPE Market Forecasts, Worldwide, 2000 Table ADSL CPE and Modem Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Table ADSL Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) Market Forecasts, Worldwide, Figure SDSL CPE Market Shares, Worldwide, 2000 Figure SDSL Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) Market Forecasts, Worldwide, Figure DSL Regional Market Shares, 2000 Table DSL Regional Market Shares, 2000 Figure Total DSL Market Forecasts, Worldwide, Figure TOC-19

20 DSL Market Forecasts, Dollars, By Segment, Figure Frame Relay Market Forecasts, Dollars, Table Frame Relay Market Forecasts, Dollars, Table National Data CLEC Players Figure U.S. DSL Subscriber Market Forecasts, Figure Europe, Asia, Rest of World DSL Subscriber Market Forecasts, Figure Worldwide DSL Subscriber Market Forecasts, Figure Worldwide DSL Subscriber Market Forecasts, Figure Cable Modem Subscriber Market Forecasts, Figure Cable Modem Internet Connection and Services Market Forecasts, Table Cable Internet Market Forecasts, Dollars, Table TOC-20

21 Broadband Wireless Access Advantages Table Market Forces For Global Economy Table Factors Impacting The Level Of Price And Product Competition Table Competitive Forces Table Response To Competition Table Business Forces Driving Change Table Telecommunications Equipment Provider Response To Change Table ATM Market Impact Table Key Strategies Of The Internet Equipment Providers Table Service Provider Internet Strategy And Issues Table Functions Of An IP Addressing Device Table Benefits Of an IP Addressing Device Table E-Services Partnering Strategy TOC-21

22 Table E-Services Systems Strategy Table Assessment Of E-Services Communications Equipment Positioning Table E-Services Table E-Services Marketing Directions Table E-Services Market Positioning Table E-Services Modular Strategy Table E-Services Component Strategy Table E-Services Challenge Table Internet Market Driving Forces Figure Growth of Internet Users, Table Growth of Internet Users, Figure Internet User Market Forecasts, U.S., TOC-22

23 Figure Worldwide Internet User Market Forecasts, Table Worldwide Internet User Market Forecasts, By Region, Subscribers, Table On-Line Services Markets, 2000 Table America Online Total Revenue Table DLC Market Driving Forces Table Alcatel ADSL Positioning Table Alcatel DSL Product line Table Alcatel DSL Solution Set Table Copper Mountain DSL Solutions Key Benefits Table Paradyne Hotwire DSL Systems Next Generation Multiservices DSL Table Orckit FastInternet IP DSLAM Features TOC-23

24 Table ADC / Pairgain Strategy For Expanding Market For HDSL Table Alcatel / Newbridge Multiservice Access Platform Features Table Key Benefits Cisco 2600 series Table NEC AM30 Multi-Service Platform Competitive Advantages Table Dynamic Alcatel DSL Solutions Table Orckit Communications FR-Based FastInternet System Benefits Table Initial SDSL Service Offerings Table Characteristics Of The Copper Mountain CE200 DSL Concentrator Table Siemens / Efficient SpeedStream Product Categories Table Com Modem Table Alcatel Speed Touch Pro Router Installation And Configuration Aspects Table Alcatel ADSL Data Router Features TOC-24

25 Table Alcatel ADSL Data Router Bridging / Dialup Networking Features Table Key Fujitsu Multiservice Product Features Table Benefits Of Paradyne Network Management Product Table Customer Advantages Of Paradyne Network Management Product Table Nokia Wireless DSLAM Features Table Nokia xdslmanagement Table ADC / Pairgain HiGain HDSL System Features Table Paradyne DSLAM Strategy Table Selected Member Companies of Open DSL Forum Table Com Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table TOC-25

26 Acer Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table Advanced Fibre Communications Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table Alcatel Strengths And Challenges in DSL Market Table Copper Mountain Key Elements Of Strategy Table Copper Mountain Objectives Table Copper Mountain Strengths in DSL Market Table Copper Mountain Challenges in DSL Market Table Fujitsu Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table NEC Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table Netopia Strategic Distribution Relationships Table Nokia xdsl Customers Table Nokia Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market TOC-26

27 Table Orckit Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table Paradyne Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table Samsung Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market Table Samsung Markets Addressed Table Wind River Strengths and Challenges in DSL Market TOC-27