Geographical Information Systems Assessment

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1 The University of Manchester / Lakeland Police Department Geographical Information Systems Assessment Theories of Crime and GIS-Critical Analysis of CAPS and Compstat by Noelle Matthews November 2003 GIS Assessment Topic

2 Theories of Crime and GIS-Critical Analysis of CAPS and Compstat Critical analysis of Lakeland Police Department s current GIS method called Crime Analysis and Problem Solving (CAPS) and New York City Police Department s method called Compstat (Computer Statistics) and their role in criminal intelligence analysis. i 2

3 Preface The purpose of this research was to determine the effectiveness of GIS mapping with crime data in the City of Lakeland and New York City, and whether or not the programs are beneficial to criminal intelligence analysis. It is known that in any jurisdiction, there are crime patterns and trends that need to be identified for accurate manpower allocation to put an end to the problems. One assumption is that because there is a high rate of major crimes occurring in an area, that the regular police patrols will take care of the problem by a regular police presence of the entire jurisdiction. Unfortunately, unless patrol saturates an area of concern, sometimes the problem continues in the same location for an extended period of time and then becomes a permanent hot spot. With programs such as CAPS and Compstat, other tactics are used to combat clusters of crime in specific areas and eliminate them before they get out of control. It is a way of putting out the fire before it spreads to other areas or fosters itself. In Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn't, What's Promising, Sherman discusses the problem of crime. His statement about the causes of crime in a community is helpful in identifying the overall problem in high-crime hot spots. (2003) "Regardless of whether these places cause crimes or merely act as 'receptors' for them, the prevention of crime in places may have substantial effects at reducing total crime in the community. Even in high crime neighborhoods, most places are crime-free for years at a time. The frequent recurrence of crimes in just a handful of locations makes the prevention of crime in such 'hot spots' all the more important." ii 3

4 Executive Summary After reviewing the data for CAPS and Compstat, and meeting with several sections of the Lakeland Police Department, it was determined that both of the programs have been a success. NYC Compstat Crimes % decrease Robbery 62% Felony Assault 37% Burglary 62% Grand Larceny Auto 68% The decrease in crimes at the Lakeland Police Department has also been drastic like NYPD s. LPD CAPS Crimes % decrease Robbery 63% Felony Assault 60% Burglary 43% Grand Larceny Auto 76% 4 iii

5 Table of Contents STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT TOPIC PREFACE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS i ii iii iv INTRODUCTION/OVERVIEW 1-7 CAPS GIS MAPS CONCLUSIONS 8-9 COMMUNITY RELATIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY 10 5 iv

6 U of M/Lakeland PD GIS Assessment Lakeland CAPS and Compstat Comparison Introduction / Overview While researching information on geographical information systems (GIS), such as CAPS and Compstat, it became clear that GIS has become an integral part of criminal intelligence analysis. To begin, Crime Analysis and Problem Solving (CAPS) is the Lakeland Police Department s method of combining GIS with crime analysis. This process will be explained in further detail throughout this assessment. Compstat is the method of the New York City Police Department to include GIS mapping as a vital role in manpower allocation. The CAPS program at the Lakeland Police Department patterns itself after NYC s Compstat program. Two main objectives of both CAPS and Compstat are to reduce major crime and to enhance Officer awareness of crime. Another objective of CompStat has been to control crime (and the quality-of-life) more effectively in New York City by way of immediate enforcement of crime trends and by using GIS software to do so. According to Vincent Henry, "CompStat meetings, then, are also about supporting and empowering commanders, sharing information and crime intelligence, communicating management's values and objectives, and ensuring accountability." Reducing major crime is achieved by identifying crime patterns and trends and disseminating the information to the Patrol staff. Once a pattern or trend is identified, it is then up to the Patrol senior staff to allocate their resources accordingly to meet the need in the community for extra Patrol in specific areas. Enhancing Officer awareness of crime is also an essential objective of CAPS and Compstat. One way of enhancing Patrol s awareness of crime in their jurisdiction is to use GIS mapping. Visual displays are often greatly appreciated by the

7 management and the line level Officers. These types of crime maps help to identify problems throughout the area. Discussing hot spots found via GIS maps, gives the sworn staff an idea of current crime trends. Clusters of crime can then be targeted for a more rapid tactical approach to eliminate the problems. The Compstat system has been listed as the reason NYPD's crime has significantly reduced over the past few years. It compiles crime data, produces maps with hot spots, and makes it easier to see crime patterns and trends. The information is displayed on crime maps twice a week for the precinct commanders to discuss the issues in their respective areas, in addition to charts and graphs. A computer software program called MapInfo along with other computer technology and Crime Analysts analyze the information. The evidence is that there has been a huge decrease in major crime in New York City because of the Compstat program. The program has proven to be so effective, that other agencies across the country and the world have attempted to mimic the program and to get the same results in their respective communities. The designer of the program idea was William Bratton in The producers of the Compstat products are the Crime Analysts at NYPD that use MapInfo software. Description of the application: The application of CAPS can be easily described. Microsoft MapPoint software is used to map crime data on a regular basis. The data used is a current breakdown of the event reports throughout the City of Lakeland based on what type of crime it is. Once the data is gathered, it is imported into MapPoint for geocoding. The geocoding process is simple. The software takes the user through the process systematically. Once the data is geocoded, it is then mapped with varying pins for the numerous crimes being analyzed. The CAPS program includes the use of statistics of crimes from the previous CAPS meeting, compared to the current crime statistics to determine the impact of our Officers in the areas of saturation. Once the statistics are compared, the current crime data is then analyzed and portrayed for the 2

8 senior staff to discuss. Four target areas are selected every CAPS meeting based on crime trends identified. These areas are further analyzed and the use of GIS maps is included in the process to assist the senior staff with recommendations as to where to send their troops. Some examples of data used in CAPS are shown below: 1. This slide is a GIS map of the previous two-week time period broken down by crime event type. The map is set up to show one crime type first, and then with each click, another crime type appears over the previous map to overlay the crime data. At the end, the final map shows all crime data by event types. 2. This next slide shows the current district problem areas in the City of Lakeland on the north side of town. One more slide shows the current problems on the south side of town. 3

9 3. The last slide shows the breakdown of crime data in the specified problem areas. I produce one of these slides per hot spot during the CAPS meeting. 4

Methods of Analysis and system(s) it runs on: The methods of analysis for the CAPS meetings are to query select events from the internal MS Access crime database for a specific time period and then

10 Methods of Analysis and system(s) it runs on: The methods of analysis for the CAPS meetings are to query select events from the internal MS Access crime database for a specific time period and then to meet with senior staff to discuss them. The specific events queried from the database are murder, rape, sexual assault, robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft. A specific time period of two weeks prior to the CAPS meeting has been set as the designated criteria for crime data to be reviewed. After the data is acquired, the crime analyst meets with the senior staff of the Lakeland Police Department for further discussion. Four new target areas are then identified based on the trends shown with the data results. As soon as the target areas are selected, MapPoint is used to map the patterns for a visual display. The systems used to produce this report bi-weekly are, Microsoft PowerPoint, Access, Excel and MapPoint. PowerPoint is used to create a presentation of the 5

11 data for the entire police department to view better. Each slide explains information about the different target areas selected. Access is used to query the crime data from our in house database. Without the accurate crime data, CAPS would not be able to exist. Excel is used to analyze the crime data obtained from Access. Various pivot tables and charts are created for every CAPS meeting in Excel. All of the above mentioned systems are critical to the CAPS process. Critically assess its role in criminal intelligence analysis: There are several ways to critically assess the CAPS and Compstat processes. First, Compstat has been proven to work by the major reduction in crime in NYC. The total number of reported crimes for the seven major crime categories declined an unprecedented 57.26% in calendar year 2000 from the levels reported in calendar year The Compstat Paradigm, 2003, revised, pg.1 Not only has Compstat been proven to work, but CAPS has also noticed decreases in major crime in the year following its inception. As the Sergeant over the violent crimes squad at the Lakeland Police Department put it, In the 28 years I have worked here, I have never seen a two-week period without a Robbery and it makes my job much easier. The advantages of introducing a system like CompStat into another agency are clear. The crime reduction results are worth the effort alone. It also helps to have the police commanders actively involved in the current and ongoing crime trends. It has been said that without a program like this in your jurisdiction, your officers know more about the current weather trends then they do about the current crime trends across the entire jurisdiction. According to Assistant Chief Bill LePere of the Lakeland Police Department, 6

12 Perhaps the most significant impact that Compstat has had on LPD is Commissioner Bratton's viewpoint that police can and do make a difference on crime. We have changed our perspective from reacting to crime to one of deploying resources in a rapid manner to wherever data suggests crime trends are emerging. This internal change is being widely adopted throughout the Department, so much to the point that one can see a marked difference in ownership of crime problems. Commanders are now holding themselves accountable for crime hot spots. I have not seen any significant disadvantages in the CompStat program. My agency currently has CAPS (Crime Analysis and Problem Solving). This program is tailored after CompStat, and the only disadvantages are that sometimes when we conduct meetings, there are no notable crime trends to discuss because we are always on top of them. Another downfall is that the commanding staff and officers have been finding it difficult at times to keep up with following up on previous problems while beginning to work on new crime problems at the same time as the two tend to overlap. Despite all the accolades and attention it has received, Compstat has also been greatly misunderstood. Compstat has been variously portrayed as a high-pressure meeting between executives and middle-managers, as a technology system, as a computer program, and as a system for sharing important management information. Compstat management involves all of these things and a great deal more. The Compstat Paradigm, 2003, revised, pg. 5 7

13 Conclusions In another study completed on apartment complex crime in the City of Lakeland, it concluded that Uniformed Crime Report rates are significantly decreasing. Not only are the crime rates decreasing in the apartment complexes studied, but also the UCR rate for the entire City of Lakeland decreased by 15% from The study did, however, determine that the significant calls for service in the targeted apartment complexes as well as the whole City of Lakeland saw significant increases from This tells us that CAPS is helping to decrease major crime throughout the City of Lakeland and that the residents of the various communities within the city are calling the police more than they ever have before. This signifies a developing relationship between the residents and the police department, as they are feeling more comfortable calling for help. North South Lakeland Apartment Complex Providence Reserve Windsor Square 2000 Part 1 UCR 2001 Part 1 UCR 2002 Part 1 UCR 2003 Part 1 UCR* % Change 2000 Sig. CFS 2001 Sig. CFS 2002 Sig. CFS 2003 Sig. CFS* % Change % % % % Oakbridge % % Regency % % City Entire City % % of Lakeland 2003 crime statistics are from 1/1/03-6/30/03. It should also be noted that the Lakeland Police Department found GIS mapping so effective as a result of the development of CAPS, that they are now in a partnership with a local news agency to map the current crime data on a monthly basis on the internet. News Channel 8 in Tampa Bay offers the crime data to the public. The internet site offers the citizens a chance to view the crime trends in the entire City of 8

14 Lakeland (as well as other local agency data) on a regular basis for free. The web site is: The site allows the user to look up current crime information (dating back to 2002 if they want to compare crime information) for the city while viewing the information on a GIS map. It allows the user to query a specific address, an intersection, or simply to zoom in and out of the city map at their leisure while selecting the type of crime to display. The crimes available for viewing are arson, assault, burglary, drugs, larceny, murder, robbery and vehicle theft. The Crime Intelligence Analysis Unit has received compliments from citizens happy to see the crime statistics for the area available as well as so user friendly. The public has also commented that they appreciate that the crime maps are free of charge and feel that they are valuable information tools. Some citizens use the crime maps as a way of checking up on their neighborhood crime rate, while others use it to check the crime rate in a neighborhood that they are looking to move to. In closing, geographical information systems incorporated into criminal intelligence analysis methods is a partnership that should never be broken. The two go hand in hand together. As time goes by, and new technology is developed, we can hope that the Compstat process will become the dominant prototype for all law enforcement management. 9

15 Bibliography (Sources and Resources) Henry, Vincent E. The Compstat Paradigm Ivancevich, Mike Sgt. Personal Interview. Lakeland Police Department. 6 November LePere, Bill Assistant Chief. Personal Interview. Lakeland Police Department. 24 November Steinert-Threlkeld, Tom. Compstat: From Humble Beginnings. 9 September

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