WECC and Base Case Development Process D E C E M B E R 1 2, J O N AT H A N Y O U N G

Transcription

1 WECC and Base Case Development Process D E C E M B E R 1 2, J O N AT H A N Y O U N G

2 How Base Cases are Built for the Biennial Transmission Expansion Plan? Study Assumptions & Case Selection Case Topology Updates Ten Year Plan & Topology Updates Contingency & RAS Models Additional Case Development WECC Base Case Work In This Presentation 2

3 Developing Assumptions Yearly Participant Assumption Meeting(s) 2019 System Assessment September 2018 System Assessment Late Fall/Early Winter Yearly Study Year Discussion Several of the participants disagree on the interpretation of what study year aligns with the terms near-term, five-year, and long-term cases. Yearly discussions on what cases CG should produce are a results of these discussions and lead to varied number of produced cases per year. 2017: 7 {2 near-term, 2 five-year, 2 long-term, 1 light} 2018: 11 {4 near-term, 4 five-year, 2 long-term, 1 light} 2019: 9 {2 near-term, 4 five-year, 2 long-term, 1 light} 3

4 Developing Assumptions Yearly Participant Assumption Meeting(s) Other Topics: Case Selection Study Plan Schedule Load & Generation Profile Plan Interchange Modeling Project Modeling Contingency/RAS Model Management Etc. 4

5 Case Selection Start With WECC Approved Base Cases In past years some cases have been reused as a starting point depending on availability of desired cases and resource limitations 2019 System Assessment will reuse the 2021 Light Spring Scenario case from the 2018 System Assessment with general updates and adjustments to the scenarios load/generation profile. Select Desired Study Years and WECC Starting Case 5

6 2019 Study Plan Initial WECC Case Study Year Study Case Study Plan Contingencies Dynamics 19HS3-OP yr Heavy Summer Member Use Yes Yes 19HW3-OP yr Heavy Winter Member Use Yes No (Next Year) 21LSP1-S 2021 Near Term Light Load Study Yes Yes 24HS yr Heavy Summer Member Use Yes Yes 24HW yr Heavy Winter Study Yes No (Next Year) 29HS yr Heavy Summer Study Yes No (Next Year) 29HW yr Heavy Winter Study Yes Yes 6

7 ColumbiaGrid Initial Case Updates Typically done in the spring but moved to fall/winter to align with participant needs Done in October for 2019 Initial Updates Case Topology Updates Known Issues (such as issues posted on WECC s Base Case Modification page) Apply initial filtering tools Adjust wind generation profiles to align with Northwest assumptions Varies year to year Post Cases and Ten Year Plan for Participant Updates Due to ColumbiaGrid by December 15 th 7

8 Contingency & RAS Models After Initial Case Updates are Made Contingency & RAS Model Requests are Sent The process for managing these files has historically been very messy and strategies have varied a lot over the years ColumbiaGrid originally managed a file that participants updated. We now ask for new files each year. Updates used to be managed in parallel to case builds but caused confusion and numerous model errors plan to request new files in January Some members request to load previous years models as a starting point. Fields are included in the models to identify who submitted the data and when they submitted it to aid in this review. 8

9 Additional Case Development New to 2019 is to Include an Optional Update to the Cases in April/May if Needed Past schedules did not allow for this update Sensitivity Study Plans & Cases are Discussed Throughout the Initial Build Phase Building cases for sensitivities varies year to year but typically use the finalized SA cases 9

10 WECC Base Case Work Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Modeling Effort to model Utility scale (U-DER) and Retail scale (R-DER) DER in WECC cases On track for inclusion in the 2019 Base Case Compilation Schedule Base Case Data Improvement Project Follow up effort based on the lessons learned evaluation of the halted Base Case Coordination System (BCCS) project Exploring base case building adjustments Possible future software solution Improved Data Quality Metrics Routines Automated PowerWorld routine developed in the Northwest 10

11 Coordination with WECC data users to address modeling inconsistencies Currently exploring consistent modeling solutions for powerflow and production cost models Upcoming: WECC Base Case Work Node-Breaker Modeling Strategy 11

12 Questions J O N AT H A N Y O U N G Y O U N C O L U M B I A G R I D. O R G 12