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2 $ % & '( & ) *% & +, * + ) * -+ + ).,* * )+ * + & $+ % & + & + $ & & * & & + )* ) +,)* -) ) ),+, ))& )* +,*,,* & $+ + )+ & & )* + + )+ & + + ))+ + & ) & **)+ + & */& & + +,* + &.$*
3 . & & )& + )),) )$,& 3& & + )4 2,.$+ &, & ) 5 + ), + 6,& &,+ ),) $,+ + )),,& & & &, ), ) + ) + 7
4 #8 +, $+ $ ), $+ ), 8 + ) )+ ) & +, ) , & & 9 *Reactive power reserves, voltage control and stability performance are not considered, as the cost of mitigation options are an order of magnitude lower. 4
5 "# $ : + )& + &, & +,& )+,& 0 & 1; % )) & < ) - ),,+ + +, & ); # 3#8= 8=>? 4) 3#87 8 >? 4 0 2/2 3 #@# #A 4& ),,& 7& 3B8 /C>? 4+,),$+ + + )& )), 5
6 "#% % & 8% &,) + & & & )0 1D + + )+ + &, & &,,& 34 ), $+ & &, ) & &, & +.)& ), )8E,+ & + + ) 28 6
7 "#&,, & & 2,7+, ) F$ ),,#&, +,, ),,G/B&,+, H), $&, + & &, ),G/B+ I F& & 3 #4& + ), F)& 3 J 74.)& )& )+ I 7
8 "#',& )&,,$ 2,7+, ) F& 3G8CK #4,8#C>? & ), 8G >? & ) 7 )& 3#=8CK 4 + I,+ + + & + + & ),)& 8 ) + & + & )& 8
9 "( %)$) %)%) %)&) 2&& 3 4 B7G BB 7G# & 3 4 "A B= G #=C= & 3K 4 7 C #A.82-,3 4 ABA BC# C#.8F$ 6)3 4 7C AG "BB.8)-,3 4 GB 7== ABB 3>? &4 #8=/ 8A #87/ 8 B8 /C87 -, 3>? &4 8#C 8=B 8G * +,-. / $012#%032 %0)3#% %# $$04% C
10 5 #
11 ) # 7 & ),& #"K )& & + #8 AK/#8AK 88 % & &,)<-,, A B& & 8 A& & + & & ##
12 Southland Otago Taranaki Northland Manawatu Hawke s Bay Source: High Wind 2010 NI:432 MW SI:203 MW NZ:634 MW Very High Wind 2020 NI:1434 MW SI:632 MW NZ:2066 MW Very High Wind 2030 NI:2215 MW SI:1197 MW NZ:3412 MW Location Island MW GWh PA Avg LF Otago SI % Manawatu NI % Manawatu NI % Wellington NI % Location Island MW GWh PA Avg LF Otago SI % Manawatu NI % Manawatu NI % Wellington NI % Wellington NI % Hawke's Bay NI % Hawke's Bay NI % Central NI % Manawatu NI % Wairarapa NI % Northland NI % Taranaki NI % Northland NI % Wellington NI % Otago SI % Southland SI % Location Island MW GWh PA Avg LF Otago SI % Manawatu NI % Manawatu NI % Wellington NI % Waikato NI % Manawatu NI % Wellington NI % Hawke's Bay NI % Hawke's Bay NI % Central NI % Manawatu NI % Wairarapa NI % Northland NI % Hawke's Bay NI % Otago SI % Otago SI % Taranaki NI % Northland NI % Auckland NI % Northland NI % Otago SI % Wellington NI % Otago SI % Canterbury SI % Southland SI % #
13 67 8 #7
14 8 7 #8 + +,) $+ & 8,& ) 78 <, & ) G8, 9 8 L8 8 8 ) 2+ 3?,)? 4 2+ I 2+ &, 9,.,+ + & #G
15 7 9 $ + $ 55<. 35E 5<4&,,)"? % 2)))82))) //,,) % + ) & I, + $+ + /,, + +,3+ <-+ 4 )+ + /& & & & & #A
16 7 9%,388 & & 4) + 3#? /4+, +,) ; )))3& H% H I& ) + ))),I )) + +,,3#K,I4 CCK 3 & 4 #B
17 ,/ 17
18 (= :) ') (= &' &: '& 2 ; #A,;/ &) %) $) 2 ; # # %)$) %)%) %)&).< ",,+ ;5E 5<M"?,,);"AK 3 & )+ I4 0 2/22 ;CCK #"
19 ,7 > /,; / :) ': ') &: &) %: %) $: $) : # & ) & ) &% &% %2 %2 %& $: %)$) %)%) %)&).< Capacity credit with wind forecasting is based on a conservative approach to accommodate 99% of the wind variations across a 4 to 6 hour time horizon. #C
20 7,7 > /,-. / $) : ' & % $ ) 20& 30% %0: $04 %0) $0& %)$) %)%) %)&).< & ) & $ ), & + )& & 8,; / ) / & + )+ / + $ ) 7,N#>??#A>??,) + + NA"K &,+
21 2 ; A?,./ A #A # A # " 7 $) 5E 5<0 5E 5< 5E 5<+ 7G 7A 7B 7= 7" 7C G G# G G7 GG GA GB + ) 2& )5E 5<?,./ G 7A 7 A #A # A 6@ %) 7= 5E5<0 5E 5< 5E 5<+ #B = 7 # G# G G7 GG GA GB G= G" GC A *, /?,./ 6@ &) = B7 B A G 7 #G # 8=A 21 GC A# A7 AA A= AC *, / *, / 5E 5<0 5E 5< 5E 5<+
22 (# $ : + )& + &, & +,& )+,& 0 & 1,) & ),,+ + & ); # 3#8= 8=>? 4) 3#87 8 >? 4 0 2/2 3 #@# #A 4& ),,& 7& 3B8 /C>? 4+,),$+ + + )& )),
23 (#% % & / &,) + )& & & )0 1D + + )+ + &, & &,,& 34 ), $+ & &, ) & &, & +.)& ), #2 ), 0 2@ 70 2), 2 7
24 7 (> 8 G
25 7 7(> #8 O ),& )& & 8 2,37+ 4, ) L8 F$ ),3#4, ) 8 ),3G/B4, )) 8 )+,$+ + ) 8 F ) / L8 78 <, ),$+ G8,9 8 % 3?,)? 4 L8 2 & & 3 # & & 30 4 <8 & 3 A B4 9>A A > A
26 7 (>7 # + + ),8,+ 2,,,7+ & F$ )3#4 ),3G/B4,& + ) & ) Reduction in wind power output (electricity production from other generators need to be increased) σ Expected wind power output Increase in wind power output (electricity production from other generators need to be decreased) Note: Sigma (σ) denotes the standard deviation. It is a measure of the spread of the values of wind power output from its mean (forecasted or expected value). To cover 73% wind variability requires additional reserve (1σ). 96% 2σ 99% 3σ 99.5% 4σ B
27 6+(>,/ North Island (An illustrative winter peak demand day in 2020) South Island GA # 7A B B, / G 7A 7 A #A # A # " B G B, / (>, / 7 A #A # A 02P- 02P 2P- 2P A G 7 # B, / # 7 A = C ## #7 #A #= #C # 7 A = C 7# 77 7A 7= 7C G# G7 GA G= # 7 A = C ## #7 #A #= #C # 7 A = C 7# 77 7A 7= 7C G# G7 GA G= B B +,$ & & =
28 > 7 (>,& ) & & & + / : & + 3.,4) 5& / 2 $ ) ), ),& + & ) + & & &, + E ) + )) )+ + & + ),+ ) ),+ ). ) ),&. "
29 E, *? B+ / +,) ) 25 2 / & / Q + + ) Q & ) Q ,+ Q -+?& Q + +?& + Q =AK 4 / 8A.& & ) / % & Q Q Q -E-) & -, / -, Q + + $ ),, / F& : +.))+ + ) C
30 (> 7# $ ), 288 ), % R + + )& % R & BK 20 2& )),$, $ )+ + ) + $+ E ),+ +, )& ) &.) ),+,/+ & $ + & + 5,),$),CC8AK ) 7
31 (> 7#% -,$ #8), )& )# -,$+ + +,+ + 8,$+ & &,,.. & & ) ) )),$+ + 8 & + & =AK,& 8 7#
32 (=C?(> %)$) %)%) %)&) ( " ( " ( " # 02 7C" #= # G GGB #A 7# A77 7#A A7 2 #B= =7 BA GA #A= #=G 7=C =# 7 B 01 ABA #" #"C BC# 7= G"B C# A"B " C 02 7C" #A "# GGB 7#G = A77 GBB 7A 2 #B= C7 7# GA B #A 7=C G #G 01 ABA G7 ## BC# AG 7== C# "BB ABB C" #CG 7= GGB G#B #= A77 B#" 2 #B= ##A C GA CB 7A 7=C A7 B= 0 1 ABA 7C GB BC# =# A C# ##G" B= Note: all units are expressed in MW IR = Instantaneous Reserve FK = Frequency Keeping 7
33 ?7 (> 7 (>,-. / G8 78A 78 8A 8 #8A #8 )-, )-, 8=B #8 A 8=B 8" 78GA 8G 78G 8A 8 A 8#C 8 # 7 # 7 # 7 # 7 Case1: dominated by standing reserve Case2: balanced allocation Case3: dominated by spinning reserve 77
34 (>(,, & & 2,, ) F$ ),,#&,,,,,G/B&,, H), $&, + & &, ),G/B+ I F& & 3 #4& + F)& 3 J 74.)&,& )&,,$ F& 3G8CK #48#C>? & ) 2 8G >? & ) 7& )& 3#=8CK 4 + I,+ & $) G
35 "( %)$) %)%) %)&) 2&& 3 4 B7G BB 7G# & 3 4 "A B= G #=C= & 3K 4 7 C #A.82-,3 4 ABA BC# C#.8F$ 6)3 4 7C AG "BB.8)-,3 4 GB 7== ABB 3>? &4 #8=/ 8A #87/ 8 B8 /C87 -, 3>? &4 8#C 8=B 8G * +,-. / $012#%032 %0)3#% %# $$04% 7A
36 " 7B
37 7A 7=
38 ( 7= 7 Hydro Generation (Weekly dispatch) Auxiliary Generation (weekly available energy) Wind Generation (1/2 hourly profiles ) Thermal Generation (Cost and technical characteristics) Demand (1/2 hourly) Dispatch Optimization Module (Objective function: Minimization of thermal capacity requirement) COPT Module (Thermal capacity outage characteristics) Output ½-hourly dispatch of: Auxiliary, Wind, Hydro and Thermal generation Reliability Assessment Module (LOLE, EENS) Yes LOLE / EENS Bench mark NO Adequate capacity level System Operation Model 7"
39 <D + B++ Without Wind With Wind 8#G 8#G 8# 8# 8# 8# 2010 B? 8" 8B 8G?B 8" 8B 8G A 8 A ?B 8#A 8#?B 8#A 8# 8A 8A 8 8 7C
40 8 E D %)$),'02;/ 6@ %)%),$%0:;/ 6@ %)&),$402;/ Region >>. ##= 7= #AG ##BB 7= # 7 # A 7= # G G7 7 B7G #G7G B7 BB #A ##C= 7G# % #"=7 7AA= AG7 #"=7 7AA= AG7 #"=7 7AA= AG7 C= / C= C= / C= C= / C= #A / #A #A= / #A= #"# / #"# E / / / / / / / / / #AB / #AB #AB / #AB #AB / #AB ) 3 4 ACGC 7=C= C=G= =#=# G B ##7C= " 7 G=C# #7 %)3 4 BC#C #=C C G"G" BC#C #=C C G"G" BC#C #=C C G"G" )3 4 #BA7 B7# "A GCB #"#C B= G =GG 77AG #=C= G"G GAA = C= AAC" "GA "GG7 B =7 7#C= CGBC <)+ 3 4 "CA #=G# GACC7 77BGG #C"# A7GAB 7=C= 7A# B A" G
41 B Based on 2005 wind profiles for 2010 scenario # 02 #B 01 D B,8 / # " B G 2 D B,8 / #G # # " B G # C #"7 =G 7BA D # C #"7 =G 7BA D ) #BA7 B7# "A GC G = #A ) ) GCB #"#C B= G =GG 77AG #=C= #GA = #CC " #G G= A A= == " CG,) 7 # GG,) CG 7A # C,) #G7 BA " G#
42 G 7A 7 A #A # A B )4 B 02 2 $) 02 2 G 7 # # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## G 8 # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## 8 #" #B #G # # " B G 6@ %) A 6@ &) 02 2 #A # A 8 # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## 8
43 B, / 8 A GA G 7A 7 A #A # A )4 A B 8 C " = B A G 7 $) A B # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A 7 A 6@ %) A B GA G 7A 6@ &) A B 7 8 #A 8 A # #A A # A # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A Data starts from first week of January G7
44 @ B Based on average hydro condition D(?(,8 / GA G 7A 7 A #A # A -E-P2 / 7 A #A # A -,P2 -E-P2 -,P02 -E-P0 2 / / # C #"7 =G 7BA # ## # 7# G# A# July D June July June -, --, )3 4 7=B C" # "G 7#AC ""GC # " BC#C #=C C G"G" C7 #C "C8 "B AB 77 #=" G=G B#C A ##7 #BA87 7B C #GA "C 7 7#,)3 4 = #=A GB8C B# #= 7# #77 7GA G=" GG
45 > 7 >B?, / " = B A G 7 * D Hydro-Thermal System = B A G 7 # D, / 7 >B?, / B A G 7 * D B A G 7 # D, / *,$.%/ *,$.%/ Wind-Hydro-Thermal System 7 >B?, / " = B A G 7 * D " = B A G 7 # D, / 7 >B?, / B A G 7 * D B A G 7 # D, / *,$.%/ *,$.%/ GA
46 B> (># %)$) # < 2/% Throughout the year, hydro is primary source for FK,8 / # " B G / # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2/ 2/. 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% 02/ 0 2/. Primary source of Primary source for instantaneous reserve is Hydro (not affected by demand) = >, / A GA G 7A 7 A #A # A /A # G = ##7 #B#C A "7# 7G7= G G7GB GC A 2/% 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% 02/ 0 2/. >, / = B A G 7 # # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2/% 02/25 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% F$ 6)-, 2-,
47 B> B %)&) #G < 2/% /,8 / # # " B G / # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2/ 2/. 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% 02/ 0 2/. B + / F8 + > ( = >, / # # " B G # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA F$ 6)-, 2/% 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% >, / # C " = B A G 7 " # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2-, 2/% 02/25 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/%
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