Experimental and Numerical Study to Improve Damage and Loss Estimation due to Overland Wave and Surge Hazards on Near-Coast Structures

Transcription

1 CRC 3 nd Annual Meeting: Feb 28 - Mar 1, 2018, UNC Chapel Hill, NC Experimental and Numerical Study to Improve Damage and Loss Estimation due to Overland Wave and Surge Hazards on Near-Coast Structures Daniel Cox Oregon State University John van de Lindt Colorado State University

2 Objective 1: Quantify surge/wave forces on near-coast structures and develop new predictive equations. Project Overview Objective 2: Develop the conditional probabilities (fragilities) for building damage. Objective 3: Illustrate next-generation riskinformed design.

3 Technical Approach Task 1: Hydraulic model test program at OSU (Yr 1) and data analysis (Yr 1, 2). Task 2: Numerical model program at CSU. Verification (Yr 1) and fragility development (Yr 1, 2). Task 3: Develop performance based design examples to illustrate methodology for engineering practice (Yr 2). [End User Engagement]

4 Task Milestones

5 Task Milestones K = Kickoff meeting 7/15, Washington DC Start of End User engagement Refine project scope in context of DHS mission, other agencies (eg. USACE) Introduction to other projects within the CRC Workforce development aspects of the CRC

6 Task Milestones K project startup phase Project staffing Tori Johnson (OSU post doc) Trung Do (CSU post doc) Bill Short, Ben Hunter (US Navy, MS students at OSU) Hyoungsu Park (OSU, finishing PhD) Physical model design Specimen design fabrication Instrumentation purchase, calibration Numerical model setup (FLUENT, ANSYS, IHFOAM) Construction of numerical wave tanks Protocols for data sharing, data archiving

7 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 = First CRC meeting at UNC, 2/16 Continue of end user engagement Detail understanding of other projects within the CRC Initiate plans to incorporate students

8 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 V = DHS site visit to OSU, 4/16 Meeting w/ E. Haijan at OSU,HWRL Facility tour, Large Wave Flume, Directional Wave Basin Capabilities of HWRL for DHS project, internships Ongoing work with NSF/NHERI program, DOE wave energy

9 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 V

10 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 V

11 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 V Diego Delgado, UPRM Kevin Cueto, UPRM

12 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 V

13 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 V Model/ data analysis Data QA/QC Final data set on DesignSafe.org Data Analysis 1 MS, F = f(h, a, H, T, etc) 1 MS, P(F > Fcrit) Publications Model/data comparisons, validation. Publication, presentations Numerical simulations and fragility curve development

14 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V Community scale pilot study (Galveston)

15 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V

16 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V C2 = second CRC meeting at UNC, 2/17

17 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V C2 Sy1 = symposium at San Juan, PR, 3/17

18 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V C2 Sy1 EU1 = End User meeting FEMA VIII, Denver 4/17

19 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2 = End User meeting FEMA HQ, DC 5/17

20 Task project startup phase 4. Milestones K C1 V Model/ data analysis C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2 Meeting Outcomes Resilience efforts at USACE HAZUS-MH, utility of new fragility curves Need for possible testbed/hindcast study (eg. Hurricane Sandy, NJ coast) Two branches Ø Building scale à community scale Ø Building scale à subassembly scale Overall, positive feed back.

21 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2

22 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis 4. Milestones K C1 V C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2 Peter Rivera, UPRM Hector Colon, UPRM

23 Task project startup phase Model/ data analysis Yr 2-3 Debris Experiment 4. Milestones K C1 V C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2 Yr 2-3 Fragility Development

24 Numerical Modeling for Physics Based Fragilities to Estimate Damage Probability USACE

25 - Building archetypes for slab-on-grade and 3m-elevated - Analysis at full-scale under possible combinations of waves and surge/flood level - Two states of analysis: before and after window/door breakage Slab-on -grade buildings 3m-elevated buildings ANSYS-Fluent building discretization

26 Determine wave and surge loading on each building components

27 Damage state definition based on probability of failure Damage State Window/ Door Failures Wall failure Floor failure (Elevated foundation only) 1 >=1 (5%) No No 2 >=4 (25%) No No 3 >= 8 (50%) No No 4 > =8 (50%) Yes Yes Building component capacities Component Distribution Parameters Window Normal Mean=70psf, COV=0.2 Entry door Normal Mean=100psf, COV=0.2 Wall sheathing Normal Mean=126psf, COV=0.4 Floor sheathing Lognormal Mean=223psf, COV=0.184 Mean of 3-hour maximum pressures on building components (before window/door broken)

28 Fragility surfaces for possible combination of waves and surge/flood levels Fragility surfaces for slab-on grade buildings Fragility surfaces for 3m-elevated building

29 Loss analysis compared to FEMA Component loss for the one-story residential wood building with wave effects Comparison of total loss to FEMA damage costs for a single family dwelling at coastal V-zone, no obstruction

30 Debris Experiments to Understand Debris Impact and Debris Damming FEMA, CCM P-55

31 OSU Andre Barbosa Shafiq Alam U Washington Mike Motley Pedro Arduino Marc Eberhard + 3 students

32 Debris Orientation Variation in orientation (Longitudinal, Transverse, Random). Variation in number (n=1, 2, 4, 8, 16)

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35 Transverse N =8, Trial -1 F I,4 F I,1 F I,2 F I,3 F D

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37 Task Milestones C1 V C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2 C3 = third CRC meeting at UNC, 2/18

38 Task Proposed: (Yr 3-4) Destructive testing, 1:4 scale 4. Milestones C1 V C3 C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2 Validation of damage levels Building openings Foundation types Re-entrant corners (combined with wind loading)

39 Task Milestones C1 V C3 C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2

40 Task Milestones C1 V C3 C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2

41 Task Proposed: (Yr 3-4) HAZUS-MH Hindcast for Hurricane Sandy at NJ Shoreline 4. Milestones C1 V C3 C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2

42 Task Milestones C1 V C3 C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2

43 Task Milestones C1 V C3 C2 Sy1 EU3 EU1 = End User meeting, CoE summit, DC 5/18 EU2

44 Task Milestones C1 V C3 C2 Sy1 EU1 EU2 EU3 EU4 = End User meeting FEMA HAZUS stakeholders Wash DC, (TBD)

45 Summary Objective 1: Quantify surge/wave forces on near-coast structures and develop new predictive equations. Objective 3: Illustrate next-generation riskinformed design. Created and validated numerical tools for surge/wave forces Completed pilot study (Galveston) to show applicability of damage fragility Extended physical model testing to include debris Held several FEMA HAZUS-MH stakeholder meetings Future work: Created physics-based fragilities for several building archetypes Direct comparison to existing (FEMA) fragilities to quantify effect of including surge + waves Building scale: improve fragilities across a wider range of building types consistent with HAZUS classifications Community scale: hindcast study for damage and loss (e.g, NJ coast; Sandy) Probability of DS4 Latitude Objective 2: Develop the conditional probabilities (fragilities) for building damage (a) ELHSM = 0 m Longitude

46 Peer reviewed papers References 1. Do, T., van de Lindt, J.W., Cox, D.T. Hurricane Surge-Wave Building Fragility Methodology for Use with HAZUS-MH, J Structural Engineering (submitted 2/2018) 2. Park, H., Do, T., Tomiczek, T., Cox, D.T., van de Lindt, J.W. Numerical Modeling of Non-breaking, Impulsive Breaking, and Broken Wave Interaction with Elevated Coastal Structures: Laboratory Validation and Inter-Model Comparisons, Ocean Engineering (submitted 1/2018) 3. Tomiczek, T., Wyman, A., Park, H., Cox, D.T. Application and Modification of Goda s Formulae to Estimate Horizontal and Vertical Forces on Elevated Coastal Structures. Part 1: Nonbreaking Waves, Coastal Engineering (submitted 8/2017) 4. Tomiczek, T., Park, H., Cox, D.T., van de Lindt, J.W., Lomonaco, P. (2017) Experimental Modeling of Horizontal and Vertical Wave Forces on an Elevated Coastal Structure, Coastal Engineering, 128, Do, Trung, van de Lindt, J., Cox, D.T. (2016) Performance-Based Design Methodology for Inundated Elevated Coastal Structures Subjected to Wave Load Engineering Structures, Engineering Structures, 117, Conference Proceedings 6. Do, T., van de Lindt, J.W., Cox, D.T. (2018) Physic-Based Component Fragility Model for Near-Coast Residential Wood Building Subjected to Hurricane Wave and Surge Engineering Mechanics Institute Conference 2018, Cambridge MA (abstract submitted). 7. Park, H., Do, T., Tomiczek, T., Cox, D., van de Lindt, J.W. (2018) Laboratory Validation and Inter-Model Comparisons of Non-breaking, Impulsive Breaking, and Broken Wave Interaction with Elevated Coastal Structures using IHFOAM and FLUENT, International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE. (abstract accepted). 8. Tomiczek, T., Wyman, A., Park, H., Cox, D.T. (2018) Application and modification of Goda Formulae for Non-impulsive Wave Forces on Elevated Coastal Structures, International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE. (abstract accepted).