FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION

Transcription

1 FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION FOUNDED IN 1945 BY MERVIN FIELD 601 California Street San Francisco, California Tabulations From a Field Poll Survey of California Registered Voters About the Job Performance Barack Obama as President - prepared for the - Sacramento Bee and Capitol Alert October 10,

2 Introduction This volume presents the statistical data developed from a Field Poll survey of registered voters in California conducted among registered voters September 17-October 4, 2015 about voter opinions about the job performance of Barak Obama as President. In order to cover a broad range of issues and minimize voter fatigue, some of the questions included in this report are based on a random subsample of 498 registered voters. The survey was administered by telephone in English and Spanish by live interviewers. Sampling Individual voters were sample at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter s name and telephone had been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. Prior to the start of data collection, professionally-trained telephone interviewers were briefed with regard to the survey s proper calling and interviewing procedures by the Study Director. This session provided both interviewers and supervisors with an overview of the study and includes a question-by-question review of all items in the survey. Interviewers then completed survey interviews by telephone through the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (TI) system. TI controls the telephone scripts read to individual respondents by displaying the appropriate questionnaire items and their valid response code alternatives in their proper sequence on computer screens at each interviewer's booth. The interviewer then reads each question aloud to the respondent from the screen and enters each respondent's pre-coded answer category through the keyboard directly to a computer disk. All answers are automatically stored in computer memory. In order to bring hard-to-reach respondents into the survey, up to six attempts were made to each telephone number selected for inclusion into the sample. Callbacks were made at different times and on different days to increase the probability of finding voters available for the interview. Where possible, appointments are made at specified dates and times to maximize convenience. 2

3 Data Processing The data file resulting from TI interviewing is itself virtually error-free. Even so, a final series of data checks were performed by means of a specially designed cleaning program that scrutinizes each respondent record for internally inconsistent information. Once the data were determined to be clean and error-free, the overall sample was weighted to align it to its proper statewide proportions by demographic characteristics of the state s registered voter population. Guide to Reading the Tables The following is an explanation of the detailed statistical tabulations contained in this report: The question or questions upon which the data are based is shown at the top of each table. Tables are percentaged vertically with the raw percentage base appearing at the top of each column. The data have been weighted to known parameters of the statewide registered voter population. All percentages and frequencies reported in each table are therefore weighted tabulations. In instances where percentages are calculated on small bases (e.g., when the base is fewer than 100 respondents) the reader is urged to interpret the data with caution, since results are subject to larger levels of sampling error. Throughout the tables an asterisk is used to denote a value of less than 1/2 of 1%. A hyphen indicates zero value. On some tables the percentages may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions. s of subgroups used in the tabulations may add to less than the total number of respondents due to some respondents not reporting that characteristic. 3

4 Subgroup Definitions The following are some of the definitions applicable to some of the voter subgroups reported in this volume: Southern California: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Imperial, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, and San Luis Obispo counties Northern California: all other 48 California counties Coastal Counties: Inland counties: Los Angeles: San Diego/Orange: So Cal: SF Bay Area: Central Valley: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Santa Clara, Mendocino, Humboldt and Del Norte counties all other 38 California counties Los Angeles County San Diego County and Orange counties San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo San Francisco, Marin, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Northern Cal: Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Del Norte, El Dorado, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Monterey, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Santa Cruz, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity, and Tuolumne 4

5 Estimates of Sampling Error In any survey based on a sampling, there is some sampling error introduced into the data by the process of sampling itself. When the sample has been drawn using random processes, it is possible to apply probability principles to determine the potential range of such error. While survey samples of human populations rarely, if ever, meet all of the criteria theoretically required for the application of these principles, it is customary to use them as an approximation of error that is introduced as a result of sampling. The table below shows the range of error associated with samples of various sizes at the 95% confidence level, which is customary for most public opinion surveys. For example, if 50% of the overall sample of 1,002 registered voters answered yes to a specific question, this statistic would have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings based on the random subsample of 498 registered voters have a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Approximate percentage distribution of replies to question Sample size 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 100 +/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /- 1.9 There are many other possible sources of error other than sampling variability in this and any other public opinion survey. The overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. 5

6 Questions Asked Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy?* Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy?* * asked of a random subsample of 498 registered voters. 6

7 Q2 (Banner 1) : Registered Voters Weighted DIS Southern Northern Region Area Party Registration Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. Central Valley SF Bay Area Northern Democrat Republican No party pref./ others Primary election voter #1 #2 White non- Hispanic Q2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 58.5% 61.1% 64.2% 48.9% 68.1% 49.6% 50.4% 48.2% 71.9% 60.0% 83.1% 23.8% 59.1% 58.5% 57.4% 51.4% 64.4% 85.8% 64.5% % 34.1% 31.4% 28.8% 42.7% 25.6% 44.4% 38.4% 45.0% 20.0% 32.8% 9.4% 69.5% 32.6% 35.3% 37.2% 42.8% 23.7% 9.5% 25.7% % 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 8.4% 6.3% 6.0% 11.2% 6.8% 8.1% 7.2% 7.5% 6.6% 8.3% 6.2% 5.4% 5.8% 11.9% 4.7% 9.8% Latino Ethnicity Black Asian/ Pacific Isle () Field Research Corporation Table 7 7

8 Q2 (Banner 2) : Registered Voters Weighted DIS Gender Age Political Ideology Tea Party identification Born again Christian Moder- A Lot/ some Strongly Moder- No, not 65 or ately Middle of Strongly Yes, born Male Female conserv- ately older conserv- the road liberal Registered All born again ative liberal again ative Republican s Q2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 55.9% 62.9% 70.1% 61.3% 60.0% 57.6% 51.3% 17.6% 50.3% 58.9% 81.5% 93.5% 27.3% 10.4% 45.0% 47.9% 63.4% % 39.4% 27.3% 22.3% 31.2% 32.4% 36.0% 40.0% 80.1% 45.2% 29.0% 13.6% 2.3% 65.4% 84.2% 45.8% 43.2% 29.6% % 4.7% 9.9% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 6.4% 8.6% 2.3% 4.5% 12.1% 5.0% 4.2% 7.3% 5.4% 9.2% 8.9% 7.0% Field Research Corporation Table 8 8

9 Q2 (Banner 3) : Registered Voters H.S. or less Some college/ trade school Education Household Income Religion Marital Status College Post work Under $20,000 $20,000 - $40,000 $40,000 - $60,000 $60,000 - $100,000 More than $100,000 Protestant/ other Christian Catholic religion No preference Married/ Not married living together Widow/ separated/ divorced Never married Parent/ Guardian of child under 18 Q2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 55.3% 51.9% 65.5% 66.7% 65.7% 62.2% 64.1% 55.7% 56.2% 47.4% 62.4% 64.5% 74.3% 54.5% 59.0% 70.5% 58.7% 60.1% DIS 33.0% 37.4% 37.8% 30.1% 25.4% 23.5% 26.5% 29.7% 39.3% 39.9% 45.6% 29.4% 27.8% 20.7% 38.4% 30.6% 23.7% 36.1% 31.6% % 7.3% 10.3% 4.4% 7.9% 10.8% 11.2% 6.3% 4.9% 3.9% 7.0% 8.3% 7.8% 5.0% 7.0% 10.5% 5.9% 5.2% 8.3% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 9 9

10 Q3 (Banner 1) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Southern Northern Region Area Party Registration Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. Central Valley SF Bay Area Northern Democrat Republican No party pref./ others Primary election voter #1 #2 White non- Hispanic Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy? % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 57.7% 57.8% 60.8% 50.5% 62.7% 52.3% 54.5% 45.5% 65.7% 67.1% 83.9% 21.5% 53.8% 55.9% 54.8% 53.4% 59.9% 86.1% 55.0% % 37.4% 34.0% 33.1% 43.0% 33.5% 46.4% 34.4% 47.4% 23.3% 32.9% 10.9% 73.0% 37.6% 39.6% 39.9% 40.2% 34.5% 10.4% 37.6% % 4.9% 8.2% 6.1% 6.5% 3.8% 1.3% 11.0% 7.2% 11.0% - 5.2% 5.4% 8.6% 4.5% 5.2% 6.4% 5.6% 3.5% 7.4% Latino Ethnicity Black Asian/ Pacific Isle () Field Research Corporation Table 10 10

11 Q3 (Banner 2) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Gender Age Political Ideology Tea Party identification Born again Christian Moder- A Lot/ some Strongly Moder- No, not 65 or ately Middle of Strongly Yes, born Male Female conserv- ately older conserv- the road liberal Registered All born again ative liberal again ative Republican s Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy? % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 56.5% 58.9% 63.2% 63.3% 52.5% 58.4% 52.2% 13.4% 50.2% 57.2% 72.8% 90.7% 28.2% 10.1% 47.9% 46.7% 61.6% % 37.3% 34.8% 28.5% 30.0% 40.9% 39.4% 38.8% 81.6% 47.7% 35.0% 17.1% 7.2% 69.0% 87.3% 49.1% 47.8% 32.0% % 6.2% 6.3% 8.3% 6.7% 6.6% 2.2% 9.0% 4.9% 2.1% 7.7% 10.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% 5.6% 6.5% Field Research Corporation Table 11 11

12 Q3 (Banner 3) : Registered Voters (Form A) H.S. or less Some college/ trade school Education Household Income Religion Marital Status College Post work Under $20,000 $20,000 - $40,000 $40,000 - $60,000 $60,000 - $100,000 More than $100,000 Protestant/ other Christian Catholic religion No preference Married/ Not married living together Widow/ separated/ divorced Never married Parent/ Guardian of child under 18 Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy? Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 54.8% 49.1% 61.7% 65.6% 53.5% 55.9% 61.5% 57.6% 60.8% 47.7% 54.8% 67.5% 68.2% 54.9% 56.5% 62.3% 54.0% 58.8% DIS 36.0% 37.3% 43.9% 31.3% 31.0% 35.6% 34.9% 32.5% 39.5% 36.0% 47.7% 37.1% 29.6% 23.8% 39.0% 35.8% 31.8% 37.7% 35.7% % 7.8% 7.0% 6.9% 3.4% 10.9% 9.2% 6.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.5% 8.2% 2.9% 8.0% 6.1% 7.7% 5.8% 8.4% 5.5% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 12 12

13 Q4 (Banner 1) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Southern Northern Region Area Party Registration Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. Central Valley SF Bay Area Northern Democrat Republican No party pref./ others Primary election voter #1 #2 White non- Hispanic Q4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy? % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 50.3% 47.5% 53.1% 39.8% 59.1% 40.6% 44.8% 39.2% 56.2% 39.3% 70.4% 16.6% 49.1% 48.6% 46.7% 41.4% 54.7% 72.4% 56.2% % 42.3% 42.1% 38.9% 50.1% 36.2% 48.9% 46.3% 51.5% 33.4% 46.7% 18.6% 77.1% 43.6% 44.6% 45.3% 52.1% 34.3% 18.8% 30.3% % 7.4% 10.4% 8.0% 10.1% 4.7% 10.5% 8.9% 9.3% 10.4% 14.1% 11.0% 6.4% 7.3% 6.8% 8.0% 6.5% 10.9% 8.8% 13.6% Latino Ethnicity Black Asian/ Pacific Isle () Field Research Corporation Table 13 13

14 Q4 (Banner 2) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Gender Age Political Ideology Tea Party identification Born again Christian Moder- A Lot/ some Strongly Moder- No, not 65 or ately Middle of Strongly Yes, born Male Female conserv- ately older conserv- the road liberal Registered All born again ative liberal again ative Republican s Q4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy? % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 43.5% 54.2% 56.2% 52.1% 47.4% 51.0% 40.0% 14.3% 40.2% 42.2% 79.7% 77.2% 24.2% 8.5% 41.2% 35.8% 53.8% % 49.6% 35.6% 35.3% 37.8% 49.2% 41.3% 47.3% 81.3% 58.8% 45.9% 10.8% 15.5% 70.7% 84.3% 55.9% 52.8% 38.6% * % 6.8% 10.2% 8.6% 10.2% 3.4% 7.7% 12.8% 4.4% 1.0% 11.9% 9.4% 7.3% 5.2% 7.2% 2.9% 11.5% 7.6% Field Research Corporation Table 14 14

15 Q4 (Banner 3) : Registered Voters (Form A) H.S. or less Some college/ trade school Education Household Income Religion Marital Status College Post work Under $20,000 $20,000 - $40,000 $40,000 - $60,000 $60,000 - $100,000 More than $100,000 Protestant/ other Christian Catholic religion No preference Married/ Not married living together Widow/ separated/ divorced Never married Parent/ Guardian of child under 18 Q4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy? Weighted % 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % 53.8% 41.9% 54.5% 48.1% 52.5% 53.0% 52.6% 44.6% 44.9% 34.8% 59.3% 53.3% 59.9% 42.9% 47.9% 61.3% 47.7% 49.5% DIS 42.2% 38.5% 46.4% 37.7% 46.0% 37.2% 37.8% 40.6% 49.8% 44.9% 55.9% 33.9% 39.6% 31.7% 48.8% 40.1% 31.2% 44.4% 41.4% % 7.7% 11.7% 7.8% 5.9% 10.4% 9.3% 6.8% 5.7% 10.2% 9.3% 6.9% 7.1% 8.4% 8.3% 12.0% 7.5% 7.8% 9.1% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 15 15