Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker s Competitiveness and Equipment Market

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Baldwin Ellis
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1 Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker s Competitiveness and Equipment Market Page 1

2 Content 1. History of TFT-LCD Panel Capacity by Region 2. Survival Strategy of Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker 1. Large TFT-LCD Panel Strategy 2. Small TFT-LCD Panel Strategy 3. TFT-LCD Panel Industry Long Term Trend 4. Equipment Market 1. History of TFT-LCD Array Investment 2. History of Color Filter Investment 3. Forecast of TFT-LCD Panel Investment 4. Forecast of Color Filter Investment Page 2

3 10 Years History of TFT-LCD Panel Capacity by Region by Mother Glass Sheet Area of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo) Km2/Mo 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Worldwide CAGR=50% China Taiwan Korea Japan CAGR:NA CAGR:114% CAGR:53% CAGR:24% CAGR=Compound Annual Growth Ratio Page 3

4 10 Years History of TFT-LCD Panel Capacity Share% by Mother Glass Sheet Area of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo) 100% 3% China 4% 80% 25% Taiwan 49% 60% 40% 72% Korea 35% 20% 0% Japan 12% Page 4

5 10 Years TFT-LCD Panel Capacity by Maker by Mother Glass Sheet Area of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo) 100% Others 16% 80% 58% CPT 6% 60% 1% CMO AUO 17% 20% 40% 20% 0% 6% 14% 21% LPL SEC Sharp % 19% 7% Page 5

6 Survival Strategy of Japanese TFT-LCD Panel Maker 1. Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy Keep Larger Glass Investment by First Move Advantage. Continuous Investments for Capacity Increasing. Sharp, IPSα 2. Small Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy Polish the LTPS Technology. Continuous Investments for Capacity Increasing. TMD, Sharp, STLCD(SMTD), Hitachi Page 6

7 M$ 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, TFT-LCD Panel Fab Investment Amount by 1,404 1, High Risk 1,851 1, G5 G5.5 G6 G7 G7.5 G8 FA-CIM Facility Build Module Cell Array Total ,111 1,404 1,558 1,851 But, You cannot catch a tiger's cub unless you enter the den!! Page 7

8 Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy Sharp will aim 52 wide and 65 wide First Mover Advantage by Larger Glass Investment Sharp Target Panel Size First Mover Advantage by Larger Glass Gen. G5 Major Panel Maker SEC,AUO,CMO G5.5 CMO G6 G7 LPL, AUO SEC G7.5 LPL, AUO G8 Sharp G8.5 SEC G9 G10 SEC? Sharp? G11? Wide TV Panel Size (16:9) Glass Size 32" 37" 40 42" 46" 52" 57" 65" 75" 85" 1100x x x x x x x x x x = Higher Cost by Lower Productivity = Lower Cost & Higher Productivity Page 8

9 Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy Assumption of Cost Analysis by Maker for 52 Wide Full HD Panel Country or Company Japan Korea Taiwan Location Sharp SEC AUO Glass Size (G3~G10) 2160x x x2250 Installation Year Inputs Glass sheets(ksheets/month) Panel Size (1.5"-105") Resolution (QCIF~FullHD) 60 52" FullHD Regional Assumptions Future Comp/Matls Cost Down % by Year Labor Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 11% 60% 50% R&D Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 80% 50% SG&A Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 80% 60% Building Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 70% 60% Module Assembly Status (In-house=0%) 0% 0% 0% Utility Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 50% 60% Patent Cost Ratio (Japan=100%) 100% 120% 150% Equipment Depreciation Year Building Depreciation Year Facility Depreciation Year Maximum Depreciation % by Region 95% 100% 100% Page 9

10 Larger Size TFT-LCD Panel Strategy 52 Wide Full HD TFT-LCD Panel by First Mover Advantage Same Generation Same Invest. Year Different Generation Different Invest. Year Japan Korea Taiwan Sharp SEC AUO 1950x x x Japan Korea Taiwan Sharp SEC AUO 2160x x x ,800 1,600 1,600 Small Cost Difference 1,400 Big Cost Difference US $ 1,400 1,200 US $ 1,200 1,000 1, Sharp 1,578 1,212 1, SEC 1,555 1,196 1, AUO 1,535 1,174 1, Sharp 1, SEC 1,446 1, AUO 1,535 1,174 1, Page 10

11 Small Size TFT-LCD Panels Strategy Assumption of Cost Comparison for Various LTPS and a-si TFT-LCD Panel Good Fair Bad Basic Information In-house Components TFT-LCD Panel Cost Comparison Table Maker A B C D Location Japan Japan Japan Japan Glass Size 600x x x x470 Capacity(Ksheets)/Mo Built Year Transistor Technology LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS a-si Minimum Design r ule (um) Panel Size (inches) # of Panels / Mot her Glass Resolut ion 240x320(QVGA) 240x320(QVGA) 960x240 (Delt a) 240x320(QVGA) Integration Circuit level Not Int egr at ion Level Gat e Driver, 6bit DAC, TCON, DC/ DC,Power None Gat e Driver, RGB Selector Switch 6bit DAC, TCON, DC/DC +Power Gat e Driver, RGB Selector Switch 8bit DAC, TCON, DC/DC + Power None All Driver IC Color filter Yes No Yes No Driver IC Manufacturing No No Yes No Page 11

12 Small Size TFT-LCD Panels Strategy Results of Cost Comparison for Various LTPS and a-si TFT-LCD Panel Basic Information Cost Structure (Yen) TFT-LCD Panel Cost Comparison Table Maker A B C D Location Japan Japan Japan Japan Glass Size 600x x x x470 Capacity(Ksheets)/Mo Built Year Transistor Technology LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS LTPS CMOS a-si Depr eciat ion Labor s Color Filter Backlight Dr iver IC Glass Ot her Dir ect Mat er ials Indir ect Mat er ials Utility & others R&D S&GA Pat ent Interests Panel Cost 1,696 1,907 1,914 2,298 Sales Price Oper at ing Pr ofit Page 12

13 Small Size TFT-LCD Panels Strategy Toshiba LTPS Roadmap In 2006, 1.5μm with Gen.4 Line will Start-up Source:IMID 06 Added Function: Touch Panel, Finger Print, Color Scanner, Digitizer Page 13

14 TFT-LCD Panel Industry Long Term Trend Mother Glass Size (Generation) 1.E+08 Gen.? Mother Glass Area (mmxmm) 1.E+07 1.E+06 Gen.11 (3050x3450) Gen.10 (2850x3050) Gen.9 (2400x2800) Gen.8 (2160x x2500) Gen.7 (1870x x2250) Gen.6 (1500x x1850) Gen.5 (1000x x1300) Gen.3 (550x650) Gen.3.8 (650x830) Gen.3.5 (620x750) Gen.4 (680x x920) 1.E+05 Gen.2 (370x470) Gen.1 (300x400) Page 14

15 TFT-LCD Panel Industry Long Term Trend 100,000 TFT-LCD Display Area TFT-LCD Units 10,000 TFT-LCD Revenue ($) Growth Index (1995=100) 1, TFT-LCD Investments ($) 10 Area/$ 1 History Forecasts Year The trend continues until at least 2010 Page 15

16 Equipment Market Trend Page 16

17 10 Years History of TFT-LCD Array Investment by Mother Glass Sheets of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo) TFT-LCD Panel Investment by Generation(Glass Ksheets/Mo) Grew but Unstable x x x x x x x x x x x x x Total CY Page 17

18 10 Years History of TFT-LCD Color Filter Investment by Mother Glass Sheets of Monthly Inputs (Km2/Mo) Capacity Addition of TFT-LCD Color Filters by Year by Generation(Glass KSheets/Mo) Grew but Unstable >2100x x2200/ 1950x x1800/ 1500x x1200/ 1200x x8300/ 730x x650/ 650x Total Page 18

19 TFT-LCD Array Equipment Forecast (M$) TFT FPD Array Equipment ,140 7,966 Array Repair Array Test TAM (M$) , ,761 4, , CY (1-12) AOI Ion Dope ELA Anneal Clean Wet St r ip Wet Et ch Dr y Et ch/ Ash C/D Exposur e PVD CVD Page 19

20 Color Filter Equipment Forecast (M$) 2,000 1,985 1,979 1,800 Repair 1,600 AOI 1,400 1,396 1,339 1,400 Wet Clean Post Bake TAM (M$) 1,200 1, ,074 Pre Bake DeHyde Bake PS&Rib- Developer RGB-Developer BM-Developer 400 PS&Rib-Exposur e 200 RGB-Exposure CY (1-12) BM-Exposur e Page 20

21 Thank you very much!! Page 21

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