Into the... exacloud
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1 Into the... exacloud A New Paradigm for Web Cinema, Video Games, and Virtual Worlds Fiber to the Home Council Asia Pacific 09 Melbourne, Australia May 20, 2009 Bret Swanson Entropy Economics LLC entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com
2 ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH A high-entropy message requires a low-entropy carrier. George Gilder
3 exacloud
4 2007 projection for 2015 exaflood Summing these trends, in 2007 we projected these U.S. estimates for 2015: Movie downloads and P2P exabytes Video calling and virtual windows exabytes Cloud computing and remote backup exabytes Net video, gaming, and virtual worlds exabytes Non-Internet IPTV.100+ exabytes Business IP traffic.100 exabytes Other (phone, Web, , photos, music)...50 exabytes Total 1,000 exabytes = 1 zettabyte
5 update exaflood YouTube > receives uploads of 13+ hours of video every minute > receives 18,720+ hours of video each day > streams ~150+ petabytes per month > streams ~3.5 terabytes every minute / every 13 min. = 1992 > HD YouTube would mean more than 18 exabytes per year, equal to total U.S. Internet traffic of 2008 Mobile revolution > 3 billion mobile phones / 1 billion new devices per year > 1.9 billion camera phones / Nokia largest camera company > 1 billion iphone App downloads / 35,000 Apps > omnichronnectivity yields constant content creation and consumption
6 U.S. Internet Traffic TB/month 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , , , Fiber to the Home Council Asia Pacific 09 Melbourne, Australia May 20, 2009 Bret Swanson Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com Source: MINTS
7 10,000,000 TB/month 1,000, ,000 U.S. Internet Traffic (log scale) 10,000 1, Fiber to the Home Council Asia Pacific 09 Melbourne, Australia May 20, 2009 Bret Swanson Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com Source: MINTS
8 The Paralleladigm Massive parallelism of: optical fiber with WDM > new single-fiber record of 32 terabits/second on 320 λ over 580 km Overwhelmed the serial nature of the existing CPU computer paradigm > Von Neumann bottleneck limits memory bandwidth > Too slow for optical packet networks, 3D graphics and HD video > Too darn hot... P = C V 2 F
9 The Paralleladigm Massive parallelism of: > optical fiber with WDM Spawns, complements, accommodates, and requires massive parallelism of: > GPUs with 800 parallel stream processors in 10 cores > NPUs with 100s of parallel task optimized processors (TOPs) > EPUs with hundreds of thousands of parallel arrayed processors (also known as data centers or Googleplexes)
10 graphics processors GPUs massive parallelism and memory bandwidth for interactive video and multimedia processing power of GPUs growing ~1.5-2x faster than CPUs... single GPU now delivers 1.2 teraflops CPUs now going multi-core and parallel... GPUs already there GPUs now adding programmability to match CPUs
11 network processors NPUs massive parallelism and memory bandwidth for converged fiber-speed multimedia networks processing power of NPUs growing ~1.5-2x faster than CPUs... single NPU will soon deliver 100 Gbps CPUs now going multi-core and parallel... NPUs already there NPUs are programmable to match CPUs
12 exa processors EPUs massive parallelism and memory bandwidth for global content delivery and cloud computing processing power of EPUs growing ~1.5-2x faster than CPUs... Googleplex can stream ~5 petabits per second CPUs now going multi-core and parallel... EPUs already there EPUs are programmable to match CPUs
13 exacloud "When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network." Eric Schmidt, circa 1993 The Network is the Computer. Sun Microsystems
14 exacloud OTOY and building Fusion Render Cloud Petaflops supercomputer with 1,000 GPUs Renders: up to 8,000 x 8,000 compressed up to 120 frames/second into any Web browser Streams: any interactive video experience... at any resolution... to any device
15 exacloud AMD/Otoy/LightStage Fusion Render Cloud Burbank, California IBM Roadrunner Los Alamos National Lab Los Alamos, New Mexico 1,000 GPUs 1/20 19,500 CPUs 5 racks 1/100 6,000 square feet 150 kw 1/ MW ~ $4 million 1/33 $133 million 1+ petaflops = petaflops
16 exacloud OTOY / Fusion Render Cloud Video games Virtual worlds Cinema 2.0 > preview before purchase > rolling release, constant updates > no DVDs, no piracy > play on any device, from home theater to mobile phone > fully interactive 3D immersive experience, evolves over time > interactive entertainment > video game or motion picture? Or both?
17 40 hours vs. Right Now photorealistic 3D... rendered in real-time
18 LightStage Ultra high-resolution capture and rendering of 3D photo-realistic real-time images for movies, TV, and the Web
19 Forget virtual reality. Just reality. Emily
20 exacloud How much bandwidth does the exacloud need? How much bandwidth do you have? > exaworld could stream 100+ PB per month per 1 million users > 100 million users would mean 100 exabytes per year > twice as large as today s world Internet > much more with video games, Cinema 2.0, other applications
21 The Paralleladigm the exacloud requires bandwidth and speed of for > optical fiber > fiber-speed NPUs > traffic management > capacity > connectivity > latency > reliability > security
22 1989 the most powerful computer ever! 20 MHz 2 MB RAM for only $ ($15,000 in 08 USD, , AUD 20,000) monitor and mouse not included
23 2009 The Hard Drive Dilemma TB was around US$5,000,000 July TB was an astoundingly cheap US$ January TB drive was an amazing US$109.99
24 exathanks Fiber to the Home Council Asia Pacific 09 Melbourne, Australia May 20, 2009 Bret Swanson Entropy Economics LLC entropyeconomics.com bretswanson.com for the chance to visit you Down Under ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH ENTROPYECONOMICS.COM
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