Market Trends. Age. Johnathan Lindsey TPP Master s Candidate MIT Microphotonics Consortium Fellow

Transcription

1 Market Trends Microphotonics: A Summary of Hardware CTR2 HPC for Market the Information Survey Age Johnathan Lindsey TPP Master s Candidate MIT Microphotonics Consortium Fellow

2 Targeted Interviews Compute 6 Responses Corning Intel Cisco Alcatel Lucent Analog Devices Siemens HP Reflex Photonics IBM Brocade (2) Fujitsu Automotive 2 Responses Bott Company Firecomms MOST Ford Toyota BMW Mobile Electronics 3 Responses Samsung Motorola Nokia Research in Motion LG Benefon BenQ-Siemens HTC Sony Ericsson * Louay Eldada compiled previous public statements from 3 companies to get responses

3 Survey Questions Data Transceiver Properties Data Rate Per Link Response Type: Gbps Response Range: Gbps Energy Density Per Link Response Type: Watts Per Gbps Response Range: 5 mw-50mw Supply Power Per Link Response Type: Watts Per Link Response Range: 0-5W Optical Connector Types Response Type: Direct, LC, SNAP 12 Electrical Connector Types Response Type:Differential LVDS, SFP, XAUI, XFI, SFP+ Target Cost to be achieved by the time of adoption Response Type: $ per Gbps Response Range: $0-$5.00 For the surveys, we define a link to be two unidirectional fibers: one each for Tx and Rx.

4 Survey Questions (2) Link Properties Number of Links Response Type: Per Blade or Drawer Response Range: Channels Per Link Response Type: Wavelengths Per Fiber Physical and Economic Properties Number of Fibers Per Cm^2 Response Type: # of Fibers Response Range: 1-96 Transceiver on PWB or Active Cable Assembly Response Type: PWB or ACA Cost Target for an Entire Link Response Type: $ Per Individual Link Response Range: $ Number of Links Per Transceiver Response Range: 1-96 Estimated Annual Unit Volumes of Transceivers Response Range: 0-N

5 Current Market Technology Attributes Optical Communications - Market Technology Attributes Technology Attributes Emerging Compute Applications Board-backplane BER 10 E-12 Chip-board Chip-chip 10 E-14 to 10 E E-15 to 10E-14 HPC box-box 10E-15 to 10 E-12 Emerging Other Apps. Video 10 E-12 Auto Systems Wavelengths , 850 Link Types MM GOF MM GOF, MM, WG Poly MM MM GOF, SM (2), WG Poly MM MM GOF (2) MM GOR, POF Normal Step Index POF (2) Link Lengths 40 cm to 2m 20 cm to 1m 20 cm to 1m 1m m 25 m 30 m Temperature Standards Controlled Environment - RT IEE, HSSG, IEC IEE, HSSG, IEC "-20 Centigrade to 110 IEE, HSSG, IEC Controlled Environment - RT IEE, HSSG, IEC Reliability 10 FITs 3 to 5 FITs 0.3 FITs 10 FITs 0-70 C -40 to 125 HDMI - Display Port MOST is dominant, Bytle Flight is being phased out Don't measure FITs, use MOST's stricit Test Program

6 Data Rate per Link

7 Links per System

8 Aggregate Data Rate Per System

9 Maximum Bandwidth Cost for Adoption

10 Projected Market Revenue and R & D Budget Revenue R&D Market Revenue = ($/Gbps) x (Avg Gbps/System)x(# optically equipped systems) R&D Estimated at 14% of Revenue

11 Connector Characteristics Optical Connector Type MTP Cheap WG LC Mini-MTP Cheap WG HD Parallel Cheap WG HD Parallel Cheap WG Electrical Connector Type SFP+ (2) Diff LVDS CSFP Diff LVDS CSFP Diff LVDS CSFP Diff LVDS Energy Density/ Supply Power Per Link (mw/gbps) Max Price per Link ($/Link) *Fibers/sq. cm Response Range: to to to 10 5 to 7 50 to to to *Transceiver on PWB OR Active Cable Assembly? 100% PWB 50% ACA 50% PWB 100% ACA 100% ACA *Links Per Transceiver * Only one respondent chose to answer this question

12 Annual Transceiver Volumes Annual Transceiver Volumes Respondent 1 10k 50k 150k 250k Respondent 2 71k 781k 1,289k 3,119k Respondent k