January Alberta Months of Supply and Price Changes. AREA Monthly Statistics 2. Easing sales continue into the start of 2019

Transcription

1 219

2 219 Easing sales continue into the start of 219 The 219 housing market is starting the year much as it left off at the end of last year. Province wide sales were 2,595 units in nearly 16 per cent below activity recorded last year, 12 per cent below long-term averages. Renewed concerns in the energy sector is impacting confidence across the province, weighing on sales activity. Easing sales were met with further gains in new listings, causing inventories to rise above levels recorded last year in most regions. Inventory levels rose to 27,5 homes, 25 per cent higher than typical levels seen in. Slower sales activity combined with higher inventory levels caused months of inventory to remain above months, ensuring the provincial market remain firmly in buyer s market territory. Persistent buyer s market conditions have weighed on prices which continued to trend down in. While provincial prices have eased, the decline is not consistent across each region. Alberta Months of Supply and Price Changes % 4 2 -% Months of Inventory Trended Months of Inventory Y/Y Price Change AREA Monthly Statistics 2

3 JAN- 219 Alberta Summary Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales 3,78 2, % 3,78 2, % Total Sales Volume $1,17,371,359 $937,659, % $1,17,371,359 $937,659, % New Listings 8,493 8, % 8,493 8, % Inventory 25,29 27,5 8.29% 25,29 27,5 8.29% Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $38,238 $361, % $38,238 $361, % Alberta average price and price change 5 % -% 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15,, 5, , 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15,, 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Alberta sales and inventory Inventory Sales Trended sales Trended Inventory AREA Monthly Statistics 3

4 JAN- 219 Alberta total residential sales 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan. '9 Jan. ' Jan. '11 Jan. '12 Jan. '13 Jan. '14 Jan. '15 Jan. '16 Jan. '17 Jan. '18 Jan. '19 Calgary Region Edmonton Region Central Alberta Wood Buffalo Grand prairie Lethbridge Medicine Hat Lloydminster South Central Alberta Alberta West -year average Alberta total residential inventory 3, 25, 2, 15,, 5, Jan. '9 Jan. ' Jan. '11 Jan. '12 Jan. '13 Jan. '14 Jan. '15 Jan. '16 Jan. '17 Jan. '18 Jan. '19 Calgary Region Edmonton Region Central Alberta Wood Buffalo Grand prairie Lethbridge Medicine Hat Lloydminster South Central Alberta Alberta West -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 4

5 JAN- 219 Sales Y/Y % New Listings Y/Y % Inventory Months of Supply Y/Y% Average price Y/Y% Sales to new listings ratio Share of sales activity Alberta West % % 1, % 331, % 31.35% 2.24% Calgary Region 1,9-17.2% 3, % 7, % 435, % 3.69% 38.88% Central Alberta % % 3, % 285, % % Edmonton Region % % % 285, % % Fort McMurray % % % 374, % 31.92% 2.62% Grande Prairie % % 1, , % 3.5% 4.7 Lethbridge % % 1, % 284, % 25.17% 4.39% Lloydminster % % % 233, % 19.39% 1.46% Medicine Hat % % % 242, % 34.71% 2.27% South Cetral Alberta % % % 162, % 37.29%.85% Alberta 2, % 8, % 27, % 361, % 29.85% Average Price Growth Comparison % -% Jan 18 Jan 19 Average Price Comparison Months of Supply Comparison 5, 45, 4, Jan 18 Jan Jan 18 Jan 19 35, 3, 2 25, 2, 15, 15, 5, 5 AREA Monthly Statistics 5

6 JAN- 219 Alberta West sales slowed compared to last year in the region. At the same time new listings rose causing inventories to rise to 1,238 units, the highest levels of inventory ever recorded in the region. Over the past two months, the amount of oversupply in the area rose to levels not seen since 29. While average prices have remained higher then last year s levels, prices have generally been trending down. Alberta West Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $23,743,475 $19,226, % $23,743,475 $19,226, % New Listings % % Inventory 1,15 1, % 1,15 1, % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio Average Price $32,858 $331, % $32,858 $331, % Average price and price change 8 6-4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15,, 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio % Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 6

7 JAN- 219 Alberta West Sales YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West -year average Alberta West New Listings YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West -year average Alberta West Inventory 1,4 1,4 YTD 1,2 1,2 1, 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alberta West -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 7

8 JAN- 219 Calgary Region Sales activity continued to slide in following job losses and weak consumer confidence. At the same time inventory continues to remain at the highest level recorded over the past ten years. Elevated inventory compared to sales has resulted in persistent buyer s market conditions, causing prices to trend down. This trend continued in as prices eased compared to the previous year for the firth consecutive month. Calgary Region Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales 1,216 1,9-17.2% 1,216 1,9-17.2% Total Sales Volume $546,48,659 $439,791, % $546,48,659 $439,791, % New Listings 3,194 3, % 3,194 3, % Inventory 7,425 7, % 7,425 7, % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio Average Price $449,48 $435, % $449,48 $435, % Average price and price change 6, 8 5, 6 4, 3, 2,, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio % Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 8

9 Calgary Region Sales 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region -year average Calgary Region New Listings 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region -year average Calgary Region Inventory 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 JAN- 219 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region -year average YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region -year average 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region -year average 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Calgary Region -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 9

10 JAN- 219 Central Alberta Sales activity eased in falling 14 per cent below typical levels of activity for the month. Concerns surrounding the economy and energy sector are likely impacting confidence in the area and contributing to the easing sales activity. At the same time higher inventory and slower sales are causing the months of inventory to rise to new highs for. Persistent oversupply has caused prices to trend down in the region. Central Alberta Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $65,455,58 $5,241, % $65,455,58 $5,241, % New Listings % % Inventory 3,28 3, % 3,28 3, % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $292,2 $285, % $292,2 $285, % Average price and price change 35, 8 6 3, 25, 2, 15,, 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio % Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics

11 JAN- 219 Central Alberta Sales 3 3 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Central Alberta -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Central Alberta -year average Central Alberta New Listings 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Central Alberta -year average Central Alberta Inventory 1, YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Central Alberta -year average 3,5 3,5 YTD 3, 3, 2,5 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 1,5 1, 1, 5 5 '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Central Alberta -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Central Alberta -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 11

12 JAN- 219 Edmonton Region While Edmonton sales did ease compared to last year s activity, sales are consistent with long-term averages in the region. The Edmonton region has seen steady improvements in their job market limiting some of the downside impact on demand. However, the region does continue to be challenged with supply issues, as rising new listings and elevated inventory are causing the months of inventory to rise and prices to trend down. Edmonton Region Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales 1, % 1, % Total Sales Volume $371,578,279 $3,463, % $371,578,279 $3,463, % New Listings 2,896 2,94.28% 2,896 2,94.28% Inventory 7,875 8, % 7,875 8, % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $358,32 $336,89-6. $358,32 $336,89-6. Average price and price change 45, 15% 4, % 35, 5% 3, 25, -5% 2, -% 15, -15% , Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio % Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 12

13 JAN- 219 Edmonton Region Sales 1,2 1,2 YTD 1, 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Edmonton Region -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Edmonton Region -year average Edmonton Region New Listings 3,5 3,5 YTD 3, 3, 2,5 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 1,5 1, 1, 5 5 '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Edmonton Region -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Edmonton Region -year average Edmonton Region Inventory 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Edmonton Region -year average 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Edmonton Region -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 13

14 JAN- 219 Fort McMurray Renewed concerns in the energy sector are impacting sales activity in the region. While sales remain 17 per cent below typical levels, activity remains stronger than the recent lows recorded in 216 at the height of the recession. Improving sales last year helped reduce the amount of inventory in the market and helped reduce the amount of oversupply in the market. However, the recent easing in sales and continued gains in new listings has derailed the steady decline in inventory. While this market has remained oversupplied for some time and prices have trended down for the better part of three years, if this recent trend persists it may take longer to see signs of stability in this market. Fort McMurray Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $4,782,229 $25,454, % $4,782,229 $25,454, % New Listings % % Inventory Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $453,136 $374, % $453,136 $374, % Average price and price change , 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 14

15 JAN- 219 Fort McMurray Sales YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Fort McMurray -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Fort McMurray -year average Fort McMurray New Listings 3 3 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Fort McMurray -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Fort McMurray -year average Fort McMurray Inventory 1,4 1,4 YTD 1,2 1,2 1, 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Fort McMurray -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Fort McMurray -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 15

16 JAN- 219 Grande Prairie Following a year of notable improvements in the housing market, sales activity eased in compared to last year and for the second month in a row fell below typical levels of activity for those months. Easing sales were met with gains in new listings and a rise in inventory levels resulted in an increase in the months of inventory. While prices did seem to react to this recent shift, it is early in the year and it is too soon to say if this trend will continue. Grande Prairie Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $49,15,273 $34,826, % $49,15,273 $34,826, % New Listings % % Inventory 1,359 1, ,359 1, Months of Supply Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $298,874 $285, % $298,874 $285, % Average price and price change 5 35, 3, 25, 2, % 15,, -% 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 16

17 Grande Prairie Sales '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Grande Prairie -year average Grande Prairie New Listings '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Grande Prairie -year average Grande Prairie Inventory JAN- 219 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Grande Prairie -year average YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Grande Prairie -year average 1,6 1,6 YTD 1,4 1,4 1,2 1,2 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Grande Prairie -year average 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Grande Prairie -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 17

18 JAN- 219 Lethbridge Sales in eased compared to the previous year, they remain in line with long-term averages. This does not come as a surprise given this market is more insulated than other areas in the province to changes in the oil sectors. However, the challenge in this market has been related to supply. Gains in new listings caused inventory to rise to the highest level ever recorded for, this in turn has been causing further gains in months of inventory. While prices have generally been trending down, did see a rise in prices. This is likely related to compositional shifts and may not reflect the current trend in prices. Lethbridge Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $34,9,462 $32,439, $34,9,462 $32,439, New Listings % % Inventory 1,91 1, % 1,91 1, % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $264,414 $284, % $264,414 $284, % Average price and price change 5 35, 3, 25, 2, % 15,, -% 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 18

19 JAN- 219 Lethbridge Sales YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lethbridge -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lethbridge -year average Lethbridge New Listings '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lethbridge -year average Lethbridge Inventory YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lethbridge -year average 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lethbridge -year average 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lethbridge -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 19

20 JAN- 219 Medicine Hat sales eased over the previous year and remain well below long-term averages for. At the same time new listings have been on the rise causing further inventory gains and a recent rise in the amount of oversupply in the market. While the gradual rise in the months of inventory is likely starting to weigh on prices, the magnitude to the adjustment in is likely more related to the type of product sold. Medicine Hat Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $2,93,574 $14,295, $2,93,574 $14,295, New Listings % % Inventory % % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $37,83 $242, % $37,83 $242, % Average price and price change 35, 3, 25, % 2, 15, -%, - 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio % Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 2

21 Medicine Hat Sales '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Medicine Hat -year average JAN- 219 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Medicine Hat -year average Medicine Hat New Listings YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Medicine Hat -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Medicine Hat -year average Medicine Hat Inventory 8 8 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Medicine Hat -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Medicine Hat -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 21

22 JAN- 219 South Central Alberta Regional sales activity and the months of inventory remained consistent with typical levels in. However, in general this market continues to struggle with more supply then demand. This persistent oversupply has weighed on prices with them generally trending down. South Central Alberta Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $4,857,8 $3,569, % $4,857,8 $3,569, % New Listings % % Inventory % % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $231,324 $162, % $231,324 $162, % Average price and price change 8 3, , 2, 15,, 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio % Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 22

23 JAN- 219 South Central Alberta Sales 4 4 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 South Central Alberta -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 South Central Alberta -year average South Central Alberta New Listings '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 South Central Alberta -year average South Central Alberta Inventory YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 South Central Alberta -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 South Central Alberta -year average YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 South Central Alberta -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 23

24 JAN- 219 Lloydminster With no change in the economic conditions, sales activity in the region continue to remain below historical levels. At the same time the number of new listings and inventory continue to rise keeping months of inventory elevated. The oversupply continues to weigh on prices with further declines recorded in. Lloydminster Jan-18 Jan-19 % Change YTD 218 YTD 219 % Change Total Sales % % Total Sales Volume $12,29,8 $8,878, % $12,29,8 $8,878, % New Listings % % Inventory % % Months of Supply % % Sales-to-new Listings Ratio % % Average Price $292,638 $233, % $292,638 $233, % Average price and price change 5 % -% - 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15,, 5, Y/Y Price Change Trended Price Change Average Price Trended Average Price Months of supply and sales to new listings ratio % Months of Supply Trended Months of Supply Trended S/NL AREA Monthly Statistics 24

25 JAN- 219 Lloydminster Sales 8 8 YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lloydminster -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lloydminster -year average Lloydminster New Listings YTD '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lloydminster -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lloydminster -year average Lloydminster Inventory 1,2 1,2 YTD 1, 1, '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lloydminster -year average '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Lloydminster -year average AREA Monthly Statistics 25

26 REPORTING REGIONS * Data is collected and reported by each board, then aggregated by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Detailed information regarding how the data is aggregated should be directed to either the Specific Board or CREA. The average price information listed can be useful in establishing trends over time, but do not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical area Comments communications@albertarealtor.ca ABOUT AREA The AREA represents more than, REALTORS and real estate Boards/Associations province-wide and provides worldclass leadership that positively shapes the Alberta real estate profession, enhances member professionalism, and reinforces the critical value REALTORS deliver to both buyers and sellers. Board & Association Information Board & Association Information The Grande Prairie & Area Association of REALTORS represents more than 24 REALTORS located in Grande Prairie and across the Peace Region. All MLS listings processed by the Board can be found on the national public web site The Fort McMurray REALTORS are a member service organization made up of approximately 2 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 12 Affiliate members providing support and service to the real estate industry. Our trading area includes the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and the Lac LaBiche County. For more information please go to Alberta West REALTORS Association represents 174 real estate industry professionals in various communities throughout West Central Alberta. For more information please go to The REALTORS Association of Edmonton is a professional services association comprised of over 3,2 Brokers and Associates serving the greater Edmonton area. For more information please go to The REALTORS of Lloydminster and District is comprised of approximately REALTORS located in offices in Lloydminster as well as the surrounding communities of Wainwright and VermilionFor more information please go to The Central Alberta REALTORS Association is a professional trade organization, whose members are licensed Real Estate professionals. Our membership currently includes more than 65 real estate brokers and agents working across Central Alberta. For more information please go to The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB ) is a professional association of over 5,2 licensed REALTORS across the Calgary region. As one of the largest real estate boards in Canada, CREB provides members with essential resources to enhance professionalism, advance the industry s development and enrich the communities they serve. For more information please go to The Lethbridge and District Association of REALTORS is a member service organization made up of 294 real estate members consisting of Brokers, Associate Brokers and Associates. The Board also has 39 Contract Subscribers who are Appraisers, Home Inspectors, Builders, and Mortgage Brokers. For more information please go to The Medicine Hat Real Estate Board was chartered in 1955 and serves the 14 local REALTORS, in eleven brokerages, which provide real estate brokerage services to buyers and sellers of all types of property - residential, commercial, industrial and information please go to AREA Monthly Statistics 26