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1 Stock Message Boards
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3 Stock Message Boards A Quantitative Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment Ying Zhang
4 STOCK MESSAGE BOARDS Copyright Ying Zhang, Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. First published in 2014 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN DOI / ISBN (ebook) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zhang, Ying, 1979 Stock message boards : a quantitative approach to measuring investor sentiment / Ying Zhang. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Stocks Computer network resources. 2. Investments Computer network resources. 3. Internet. I. Title. HG Z '4693 dc A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Knowledge Works (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: December
5 To Biyun, Ike, and Ivy Zhang
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7 Contents List of Figures List of Tables ix xi 1 Why Pay Attention to Stock Message Boards? 1 2 A Variety of Stock Message Boards 19 3 About Stock Message Board Posters 39 4 Why Do People Post Messages on Stock Message Boards? 53 5 Modeling the Value of a Stock Message Board 67 6 How to Measure Stock Message Boards Activities? 87 7 Patterns in Stock Message Board Posting Activities Online Talk: Does It Matter at All? Trading Strategies Based on Stock Message Board Information Legal Issues Associated with Stock Message Board Posting Whisperers Versus Analysts and Implications for Market Efficiency Alternative Information on the Internet Implications of Stock Message Boards The Future of Stock Message Boards Literature Review for Stock Message Board Studies 249 Notes 267 Bibliography 275 Index 285
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9 Figures 2.1 Screen Capture of Post Message on HotCopper Screen Capture of YingZhang s Member Profile on hotcopper.com.au Linear Relationship between Messages m and Time t Linear Relationship between Probability of Right Messages Pr and Rank r with a Positive a Linear Relationship between Probability of Right Messages Pr and Rank r with a Negative a Linear Relationship between Rank r and Time t Nonlinear Relationship between Value of an Author v and Time t with a Positive a Nonlinear Relationship between Value of an Author v and Time t with a Negative a Linear Relationship between Number of Authors N and Time t Nonlinear Relationship between Value of a Forum V and Time t with a Positive a Nonlinear Relationship between Value of a Forum V and Time t with a Negative a Lifecycle of a Message Board in the Long Run Merger of Two Firms (Message Boards) Screen Capture of My Microsoft Access Database Screen Capture of My Text Files Folder Flowchart for Using a Text Classifier Message Length Measured in Number of Characters Messages Posting by Hours (EST) Messages Posting by Day Messages Posting by Day within a Month Messages Posting by Month Messages Posting by Year Distribution of Self-disclosed Sentiments Number of Messages Posted by Authors Authors Number of Postings when Starting a New Message 121
10 x Figures 7.10 Authors Credit Scores when Leaving a Message Number of Watchers when Authors Leaving Messages Distribution of Messages according to Stock Prices Raw Return of a Stock Mentioned in a Message Number of Outstanding Shares Stock s Market Capitalization Daily Trading Volume when the Stock was Mentioned Average Numbers of Messages and Number of Posters from t 5 to t Sentiment and Disagreement Indexes from t 5 to t Event Study on Abnormal Return from t 30 to t Event Study on Abnormal Volume from t 30 to t Abnormal Return from t 5 to t Abnormal Volume from t 5 to t Number of Papers per Year 250
11 Tables 2.1 An Example of Activetrader Chat Room User Yingzhang s Profile on Activetrader An Example of the Short Term Trading Board on HotCopper Complete Content of Message Number on HotCopper An Example of the AAPL Message Board on Siliconinvestor Message Number on the AAPL Message Board on Siliconinvestor User YingZhang s Profile on Siliconinvestor Demographics of Posters based on Quantcast Analysis An Example of Confusion Matrix 106
Lexical Priming in Spoken English Usage
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