Early Identification and Assessment of Technologies

Transcription

1 Early Identification and Assessment of Technologies 3rd Tenerife Conference of the»humboldt Cosmos Multiversity«on Future Perspectives of the Canary Islands, Nov. 15 th, 2013 Theodor Malcotsis Fraunhofer IAO Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart Folie 1

2 Overview Profile of Fraunhofer IAO A look into the 3D additive manufacturing technologies Approach for early identification of relevant technologies Assessment of promising technologies Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 2

3 Profile of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Research and development Application-oriented research of direct use to businesses and of benefit to society Application-oriented basic research Departmental research for the German Federal Ministry of Defense Business community Institutes work as profit centers One-third of the budget consists of income from industrial projects Spin-offs by Fraunhofer researchers are encouraged Contracting partners/clients Industrial and service companies Public sector Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 3

4 Profile of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Founded: 1949 more than 22,000 staff 66 institutes and independent research units Fraunhofer Worldwide Europe: Brussels (Belgium), Budapest (Hungary), Porto (Portugal), Gothenburg (Sweden), Bolzano (Italy), et al. USA: East Lansing, Maryland, Plymouth, Boston, Newark, Cambridge South America: Santiago (Chile), Salvador (Brazil) Asia: Ampang (Malaysia), Beijing (China), Jakarta (Indonesia), Koramangala Bangalore (India), Seoul (South Korea), Singapore, Tokyo (Japan) Middle East: Dubai (United Arab Emirates), Cairo (Egypt) Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 4

5 Profile of IAO and IAT Founded: IAO 1981 IAT 1991 Director (acting): Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wilhelm Bauer Budget: 31.8 million euros, of which 37% are generated from industry Staff: some 500 employees Figures from 2012, including IAT University of Stuttgart Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 5

6 Our areas of business Corporate Development and Work Design Service and Human Resources Management Engineering Systems Information and Communication Technology Technology and Innovation Management Mobility and Urban Systems Engineering Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 6

7 Overview Profile of Fraunhofer IAO A look into the 3D additive manufacturing technologies Approach for early identification of relevant technologies Assessment of promising technologies Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 7

8 Current challenges for technology management Which technologies should a company focus on to be successful in the future? Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 8

9 Current 3D additive manufacturing technologies Laser Sintering Stereolithography Laser Melting Extrusion Processes 3D printing additive manufacturing Blown Powder Processes Wire Extrusion Processes LOM Electron Beam Melting Source: Frost & Sullivan Image. Fraunhofer IPA Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 9

10 Technology roadmap for 3D additive manufacturing 3D printing technologies for the production of large objects New hybrid technologies for 3D printing 3D printing of soft tissues Research new material for the 3D printing Ultrasonic-based additive manufacturing technologies High-speed sintering technology Development of technologies for production of the multi-material structures Source: Based on Frost & Sullivan, 2013 Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 10

11 Overview Profile of Fraunhofer IAO A look on 3D additive manufacturing technologies Approach for early identification of relevant technologies Assessment of promising technologies Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 11

12 Identification of potential technologies TechnologyRadar CS 1 CS 2 CS x TF 1 TF 2 TF y Legend Cs y Assessment criteria set (e.g. economic criteria) TF y Technology field (e.g. energy storage) Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 12

13 Fraunhofer TechnologyRadar Use Case Company facts Industry employees ~ engine drive equipment for forestry revenue ~ 3 bill. Euro Technological subject: surface analytics 1.Is a chemical element present on the surface? 2.How much of this element exists on the surface (2-D)? 3.How is the concentration of the element within the sample (3-D)? phosphating burnishing surface oxidation. Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 13

14 The Approach Technology»surface analysis«1. Objectives Which technology-needs does the company have? Which technologies are readyto-use? Which emerging technologies are existing? 3. Data collection 5. Technology assessment 2. Functional analysis 4. Data analytics ~100 technologies for surface analysis 24 potential technologies 3 fitting technologies Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 14

15 Fraunhofer TechnologyRadar Use Case Determination of the technology requirement profile Requirements Approach Presence of chemical element on the surface Amount of element on surface Concentration of the element within the sample Materials destructive non-destructive Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 15

16 Fraunhofer TechnologyRadar Use Case Compilation of search terms ~ Documents ~ 4 GB Data Volume Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 16

17 How do I search the internet for technologies? Example: detection of chemical elements Extremely efficient search BUT: nearly 8 million entries, sorted by a "Google algorithm"... Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 17

18 Library metaphor How can information on potential technologies be found in a library? Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 18

19 Wie finde ich in eine Bücherei Informationen über mögliche Märkte für die OLED-Technologie? Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 19

20 Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 20

21 Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 21

22 Wie finde ich in eine Bücherei Informationen über mögliche Märkte für die OLED-Technologie? Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 22

23 Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 23 Relevant bookshelf

24 Please see through! Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 24

25 Please read it! Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 25

26 Fraunhofer TechnologyRadar use case Technology identification and forecasting 1. Topic Overview 2. Document view 3. Interrelations Relevant Insights Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 26

27 Overview Profile of Fraunhofer IAO A look on 3D additive manufacturing technologies Approach for early identification of relevant technologies Assessment of promising technologies Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 27

28 Fraunhofer TechnologyRadar use case Technology assessment Defined criteria/requirements Technology fields Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 28

29 Fraunhofer TechnologieRadar use case Results ~100 Technologies for surface analytics 24 potential fitting technologies 3 fitting technologies Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 29

30 Another challenge for technology management Which new markets or business areas can be opened up with the current technology portfolio or with new technologies? Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 30

31 Questions Market Technologies Where is my Market? Flexible & transparent OLED Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 31

32 The Fraunhofer MarketExplorer Target group Technology developer, -provider and investors Key questions 1. Marketing of the existing technology portfolio Are there attractive applications which we can address with our actual technology portfolio? 2. Development of the future technology portfolio Which requirements do the relevant attractive future applications have on my technology portfolio? Fraunhofer Gesellschaft Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 32

33 Functional approach of the Fraunhofer MarketExplorer What applications can be harnessed with inertial sensors? Technology: inertial sensor basic function: acceleration measurement Application: air bag sensor Bild: Mercedes Sub function: speed detection Application: hard drive protection first derivation second derivation Sub function: distance-measurement Application: autonomous mowing Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 33

34 The functional-semantic approach Technologien Technologies (Kernkompetenzen) (core competence) Technologie Technology 1 Technology 2 Technologie 2 Function list Technologie 3 Attributes list Technologie 4 Technologie Technology n Technology seeks Market Functions Fkt 1 Fkt 2 Fkt x Att 1 Att 2 Att x Attributes Märkte Markets (diversification goals) Markt Market 11 Function list (target) Markt 2 Attributes list (target) Markt 3 Markt Market 42 Markt Market nn Market seeks Technology Sources for Technology and Market knowledge Experts: tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge has a personal character ( hidden knowledge ) + + very up-to-date -- Difficult to obtain Data: explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge ist expressible and reproducible knowledge + easy to obtain - Not as up-to-date than tacit knowledge Source: Ardilio, Fraunhofer IAO Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 34

35 Identify gaps in a technology sector Process overview Yvonne Wich, Fraunhofer IAO Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 35

36 White Spot Analysis Assessment of White Spots Yvonne Wich, Fraunhofer IAO Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 36

37 Example Turbines play a prominent role in the energy and aviation market sector. There is a strong demand for raising the resource efficiency of turbines! [1] Challenges minimize the fuel consumption minimize noxious emissions wear that occurs during operating time must be identified and corrected in a timely manner! Selective Laser Melting for blades [2] [3] Source: Wich; König-Urban, Fraunhofer IAO, Fraunhofer IPK Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 37

38 Thank you for your attention! Theodor Malcotsis Business Area Technology and Innovation Management Phone Fraunhofer IAO Nobelstrasse Stuttgart Germany Fraunhofer IAO, IAT University of Stuttgart slide 38