THE ELECTION, SMALL BUSINESS, AND THE ECONOMY

Transcription

1 THE ELECTION, SMALL BUSINESS, AND THE ECONOMY WILLIAM DUNKELBERG CHIEF ECONOMIST, NFIB

2 TWO WAYS OUT, NEITHER DESIRABLE

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9 INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT QUARTERLY APRIL Index Value '03 '08 '13 Source: University of Michigan

10 PREDICTED AND ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PREDICTED ACTUAL '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 76 Percent of Firms

11 CONSUMER CREDIT DELINQUENCY RATES (% of receivables) ALL CREDIT CARDS REAL ESTATE COMMERCIAL Federal Reserve/Haver Analytics SEASONALLY ADJUSTED '00 '03 '06 '

12 EXPECTING BETTER ECONOMY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, 2/17 REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS DEMOCRATS I N D E X V A L U E

13 JOB GROWTH IN TWO NBER RECOVERY PERIODS, 1983 AND AVERAGE 689,000 AVERAGE 438,000 (535,000) HAVER ANALYTICS QUARTERS OF RECOVERY GDP GROWTH: % %

14 REAL GDP GROWTH IN NBER EXPANSION PERIODS PERCENT 6 5 THE WEIGHT OF GOVERNMENT

15 SMALL BUSINESS FACTS 90% OF ALL EMPLOYERS HAVE FEWER THAN 20 EMPLOYEES 99% HAVE FEWER THAN 500 PRODUCE HALF OF THE PRIVATE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT EMPLOY 50%+ OF PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYEES PRODUCE 2/3RDS OF NEW JOBS

16 SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (QUARTERLY, 1986 = 100) 110 FIRST MONTH IN QUARTER '00 '03 '06 '

17 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX COMPONENTS ANSWERED OCT BEFORE AFTER NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR JOB CREATION JOB OPENINGS EXPECT EASIER CREDIT EXPECT BUS COND BETTER EXPECT HIGHER REAL SALES EARNINGS TREND HIGHER INVENTORY TOO LOW (NET) PLAN TO INCREASE INVENTORY GOOD TIME TO EXPAND PLAN CAPITAL SPENDING OPTIMISM INDEX

18 EXPECTATIONS FOR BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN 6 MONTHS (PCT BETTER - PCT WORSE ) FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER 60 Percent of Firms '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 15 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

19 OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS 30 EXPANSION (PCT NOW IS A GOOD TIME ) FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER NO for 30 QUARTERS Percent of Firms '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 15 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

20 BAD TIME TO EXPAND DUE TO THE POLITICAL CLIMATE QUARTERLY Percent of Firms '01 '04 '07 % OF THOSE SAYING BAD TIME '10 '13 16 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

21 REPORTED CHANGE IN PAST SALES (last 3 months vs prior 3) FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER Percent of Firms RECESSION ENDS 97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 [% "HIGHER" - % "LOWER", SEAS. ADJ.] 15

22 EXPECTED REAL SALES FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER Percent of Firms '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 [% "HIGHER" - % "LOWER", SEAS. ADJ.] 15

23 GDP GROWTH RATE (QUARTERLY AT ANNUAL RATES) GDP GROWTH INDEX HOUSING '00 '03 '06 MFG/EXPORT '09 ' NFIB DATA FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER 80

24 THE DEBT DEATH SPIRAL

25 DEBT=.8*DISPOSABLE INCOME ACTUAL MAINTAINING DEBT/INCOME RATIO IN ($000) EXCESS CONSUMER DEBT: PAYING FOR THE PARTY Federal Reserve/Haver Analytics '02 '05 '08 '11 '14

26 CONSUMER NET WORTH NET WORTH BELIEVABLE??? HOUSING DOT COM Federal Reserve/Haver Analytics '00 '02'04 '06 ' TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

27 CONSUMER NET WORTH RELATIVE TO GDP NET WORTH PER DOLLAR OF GDP BUBBLE BUBBLE BUBBLE???? 4 AVERAGE RECESSION Federal Reserve/Haver Analytics '00 '02'04 '06 ' RATIO OF WEALTH TO GDP

28 STOCKS AND BONDS BOND INDEX (left) S&P STOCKS (right) HAVER ANALYTICS '00 '05 '10 '

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30 BILL PAYMENT, RECEIVABLES COLLECTION AND TRADE CREDIT Percent of Firms RECEIVABLES BILL PAYMENT TRADE CREDIT FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER NET % WITH A FAVORABLE RESPONSE '

31 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT PROBLEMS (% HARDER TO GET - % EASIER) FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER '00 '03 '06 '09 ' Percent of Firms

32 REGULAR BORROWING ACTIVITY (AT LEAST ONCE A QUARTER) % OF OWNERS '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 15 Percent of Firms

33 ALL CREDIT NEEDS NOT SATISFIED NEEDS NOT MET '02 '05 '08 ' Percent of Firms

34 '02 '05 '08 LOAN DEMAND: PERCENT NOT WANTING A LOAN 55 PERCENT OF ALL FIRMS NOT WANTING A LOAN RECESSION STARTS Percent of Firms

35 SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING OWNERS Percent of Firms INFLATION '00 '03 '06 ' CREDIT FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER CREDIT: NO PROBLEM

36 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS TAXES REGULATIONS WEAK SALES INSURANCE FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER '00 '03 '06 '09 ' Percent of Firms

37 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS RISING HEALTH CARE COST 2. COST OF REGULATIONS AND RED TAPE 3. FEDERAL TAXES ON BUSINESS INCOME 4. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ECONOMY 5. TAX COMPLEXITY 6. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT GOVT POLICY 7. FREQUENT CHANGES IN THE TAX CODE 8. PROPERTY TAXES 9. STATE TAXES ON BUSINESS INCOME 10. FINDING QUALIFIED LABOR

38 AVERAGE RATE PAID ON SHORT TERM LOANS RATE PAID QUARTERLY '02 '05 '08 ' Percent

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40 MORTGAGES TREASURY BONDS

41 NET PERCENT REPORTING HIGHER INTEREST RATES [ ON THE LAST LOAN] '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 Percent of Firms

42 NIRP UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

43 OUR UNCERTAIN MONTH TO MONTH MONETARY POLICY 1.Fed s Mester Says Case for November Hike Will Likely Be Strong, Bloomberg.com: Economy, October 3, Fed s Dudley Advises Caution in Raising Interest Rates, Bloomberg.com: Economy, October 3, 2016 LAGS ARE LONG AND VARIABLE DATA ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED AFTER ISSUE

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45 ACTUAL PRICE INCREASES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 80 FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER Percent of Firms '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 15 FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER -40

46 CHANGES IN PRICES AND LABOR COMPENSATION COMPENSATION RAISED PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET % Percent of Firms '02 '05 '08 ' FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER

47 EMPLOYMENT AND JOB CREATION

48 UNFILLED JOB OPENINGS % WITH AT LEAST ONE UNFILLED OPENING FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER '00 '03 '06 ' Percent of Firms

49 REASONS APPLICANT NOT QUALIFIED TYPICAL OCCASIONAL SPECIFIC SKILLS WORK HISTORY SOCIAL SKILLS LEGAL WAGE EXPEC ENG/MATH APPEARANCE ATTITUDE DRUGS

50 JOB CREATION PLANS % PLAN INCREASE - % PLAN DECREASE FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 76 Percent of Firms

51 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS LABOR COST LABOR QUALITY FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 Percent of Firms

52 0.4 AVERAGE CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT PER FIRM FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER '02 '05 ' NUMBER OF WORKERS

53 30 25 PERCENT OF OWNERS INCREASING OR REDUCING EMPLOYMENT INCREASED REDUCED FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER Percent of Firms '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 15

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55 ACTUAL CAPITAL OUTLAYS Percent of Firms % SPENDING %SPEND + LEASE LEASING ADDED FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 15

56 PLANNED CAPITAL OUTLAYS (NEXT SIX MONTHS) FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 Percent of Firms

57 INVENTORY INVESTMENT PLANS [% PLAN INCREASE % PLAN DECREASE] 15 FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER Percent of Firms '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 15 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

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59 THE LATEST FED FORECASTS

60 SOME THINGS THE ELECTION HAS TAUGHT US

61 THE DEMOCRATS SWINGING FOR THE FENCE TOOK THEIR EYE OFF THE BALL

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67 REFUNDS CLOSED

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69 TRICKLE DOWN

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73 ALWAYS FIND WAYS TO MAKE YOUR JOB INTERESTING

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