Economic Performance and Outlook
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1 1/14/211 From Recovery to Expansion: How and When The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Sh Schar Faculty Chair and University it Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University uary 14, 211 Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight Quarter y 29 October 21 uary Q ** Q ** Q ** Q4 1.1.** 21 Q ** Q ** Q ** Q4* Q1* Q2* Q3* Q4* *Projected **Actual GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 1/14/211 U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator GDP 3 rd Quarter of Previous Year -.% + 2.2% + 2.6% ISM Manufacturing Index 32.4 [-].9 [+] 7. [+] ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 37.3 [-] 48.7 [-] 7. [+] U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator Personal Income -.2% +.4% +.3% Consumer Confidence Present Consumer Confidence Expectations 29.4 [-] 18.8 [-] 23. [+] 43.8 [-] 7.6 [+] 71.9 [-] Retail Sales -1.8% 1.3%.8% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 1/14/211 U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator Job Growth (-Dec) - 33K - 11K 13K Unemployment 6.7% 1.% 9.4% New Unemployment Claims 492K 432K 388K U.S. Economic Signals: First Monday of the Year Indicator New Home Sales -2.9% 11.3%.% Existing Home Sales -8.6% 7.4%.6% 3-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage.1%.8% 4.86% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 1/14/211 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions 12 % Change in GDP Q Q Q1 21-Q4 29-Q Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (29 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast) U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: % Forecast > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 1/14/ U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices RECESSION > > > 11. LI L.I C.I. -6 Feb-7-7 Aug-7-7 Feb-8-8 Aug-8-8 Feb-9-9 Aug-9-9 Feb-1-1 Aug ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices 6 MFG NON-MFG GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 1/14/211 THOUSANDS Annual Change in Jobs US Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS 3 1 Dec = + 1, Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 1/14/211 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 27 December 29 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs -1,63 Retail Trade -1,26 Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing -2,192 Financial Construction -1,79 Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total - 8,363, Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Job Change by Sector December 29 December 21 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -2 (s) Total = 1, Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 1/14/211 s Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average) 417 U.S. Unemployment Rate % % GI Fcst Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 1/14/211 Consumer Confidence Expectations Present Situation ti 2 1 Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Consumer Prices Forecast > > > > > > Source: BLS, Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 1/14/211 Interest Rates Forecast > > > > > > Fed 3-Yr $/barrel 12 1 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 1/14/211 % Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % 3 2 U.S. Economic Performance 1 GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures -1 State & Local Federal -2 Bus. Inv. -3 Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 1/14/211 The Washington Economy US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 1/14/211 Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% 12-Month Moving Average -3.% -4.% Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 1.%.%.% -.% -1.% 12-Month Moving Average -1.% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 1/14/211 Thousands Avg. = 36, -8 Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s 1 Annual Job Change MOTYC Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 1/14/211 8 s Annual Job Change MOTYC District of Columbia Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban yland Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
16 1/14/211 8 s Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change s Annual Data Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
17 1/14/211 s Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban yland Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 1/14/211 s Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change - Manufacturing s Annual Data Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 1/14/211 Annual Job Change - Information s Annual Data Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Transportation and Utilities s Annual Data Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
20 1/14/211 Annual Job Change - Construction s Annual Data Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change - Financial s Annual Data Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 1/14/211 s Annual Data Annual Job Change - Retail Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data Wholesale Trade Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
22 1/14/211 s Annual Data State & Local Government Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Professional and Business Services s Annual Data Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
23 1/14/211 s Annual Data Leisure & Hospitality Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data Other Services Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
24 1/14/211 s Annual Data Education and Health Services Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis s Annual Data Federal Government Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
25 1/14/211 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financiali Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector (s) Total 49, Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Largest Job kets Job Change 9 1 Washington + 49,2 Source: BLS ch 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
26 1/14/211 Unemployment Rate DC 9.3 U.S. 6.3 SMD 6. MSA NVA 2 Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted % Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate ember 21 1 US Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 26
27 1/14/211 Economic Forecast Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area Billions Current $ Total Procurement 4 2 Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 27
28 1/14/211 Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area Total Federal Procurement in the Region for Past 3 Years = $794 Billion $ Billions 1 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 36.6% Federal 34.9% Procurement 19.2% Other: Health/Education, Media GMU Center for Regional Analysis 28
29 1/14/211 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 21 Benchmark data from BLS 7 % Economic Outlook (GRP) 21 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 29
30 1/14/211 % GDP/GRP 2-21 Washington U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis policy-cra.gmu.org GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
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