Automotive Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Transcription

1 Automotive Outlook Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center Atlanta, GA August 23, 2017 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

2 Brief Macro Assessment

3 GDP expanded by 2.1% over the past year Real gross domestic product percent Percent change from a year earlier Quarterly change (saar) 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

4 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects GDP to grow around trend over the next three years Real gross domestic product percent change from a year earlier FOMC Central Tendency (June 2017) Longer run FOMC 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

5 Employment increased by over 2.1 million jobs over the past 12 months Total employment percent Percent change from a year earlier Monthly change (saar) 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

6 The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.3% percent Unemployment rate 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

7 The FOMC forecasts that the unemployment rate will be just below the natural rate through Unemployment rate percent 11 FOMC Central Tendency (June 2017) Longer run FOMC '91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17'18'19

8 Inflation had been moving higher Personal consumption expenditure chain price index percent change from a year earlier '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

9 In large part inflation has been following the pattern of energy prices dollars per barrel, 2016 dollars Real West Texas Intermediate oil price 1970 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

10 Consumer spending on energy are well below the historical average Energy goods and services expenditures as a share of total consumption percent s 70s 80s s 00s 10s '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

11 The FOMC anticipates that PCE inflation will be around their two percent target in 2018 and 2019 Personal consumption expenditure chain price index percent change from a year earlier 6 5 FOMC Central Tendency (June 2017) Longer run FOMC '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

12 Manufacturing output is starting to increase after being unchanged for over a year percent Industrial production manufacturing Monthly change (saar) Percent change from a year earlier 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

13 Capacity utilization has been improving Capacity utilization manufacturing percent '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

14 Industrial production is forecast to improve but expand at a pace below its historical rate Total industrial production percent 10 5 Percent change from a year earlier Quarterly change (saar) Q Blue Chip IP Forecast Actual Forecast '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

15 Auto Outlook

16 Light vehicles sales set a record in 2016 edging up 0.4% from year-to-date sales were 1.8% lower than a comparable period of year earlier Light vehicle sales millions of units (saar) '91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

17 Year-to-date light truck sales are 4.8% higher than a year earlier, while passenger car sales are 11.7% lower millions of units (saar) Passenger car and light truck sales light trucks passenger cars 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

18 Light truck market share set a record high in June percent Light truck share of light vehicle market sales 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

19 What had been an passenger car market has increasingly become a light truck market Motor vehicle sales millions Autos Light trucks '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

20 Days supply of vehicles are somewhat higher than desired, especially for passenger cars days Passenger car and light truck days supply light trucks passenger cars 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

21 The average age of the fleet has risen substantially Average age of lightvehicles years '00 '05 '10 '15

22 Motor vehicle registrations continue to rise Motor vehicle registrations millions '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

23 Registrations have been rising at a faster pace than the driving age population Motor vehicle registrations and drivingage population millions Population 16+ Registrations 1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

24 The number of vehicles per driving age adult has been relatively flat for the past 15 years Motor vehicle registrations per person 16 years and over '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

25 The driving age population is forecast to increase by over 80 million people over the next 45 years Motor vehicle registrations and drivingage population millions Population 16+ Registrations 1960 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60

26 Since 1980 light vehicle sales has averaged growth of 0.4% per year millions Light vehicle sales 1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

27 Domestic production has remained at a solid share percent Share of light vehicle sales imports new domestics Detroit '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 percent

28 Motor vehicle assemblies has averaged 10.5 million Motor vehicle assemblies millions '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

29 Automotive production is lower than a year earlier percent change from a year earlier Industrial output consumer autos and trucks 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

30 Since the mid-1980s the number of auto assemblies has been slipping, while light trucks has been rising millions Motor vehicle assemblies Autos Light Trucks 1975 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

31 New vehicle prices are falling Consumer price index new vehicles percent change from a year earlier '91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

32 New vehicle prices have risen at a much smaller rate than overall prices in the economy Consumer Price Index Index: 1960= All Items New vehicles 1960 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

33 What had been more than a year s worth of income to purchase a vehicle has fallen to less than 8 months Car expenditure as a share of per capita disposable income percent '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

34 The automobile delinquency rate from direct loans are rising, but remain very low percent Delinquency rate automobile direct loans 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

35 The automobile delinquency rate from indirect loans have also been rising, but also remain low percent Delinquency rate automobile indirect loans 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

36 Alternative powered vehicles (including hybrids) are a very small fraction of total vehicle sales percent of total sales Power Type Gasoline and Diesel Alternative 1990'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

37 Alternative powered vehicles (including hybrids) market share barely exceeded 4% and have been declining over the past two years Alternative Powered Vehicles percent of total sales '91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17

38 Economic indicators for the automotive industry are very positive Key Economic Indicators for the Automotive Industry From 1990 During the Since the end of the through 2007:Q4 Great Recession 1 Great Recession 2 Latest Data 3 Real GDP Average Q/ AR Real Consumption Average Q/ AR Index of Consumer Sentiment Average Index Employment Growth Average change in jobs (thous.) Unemployment rate Average % Corporate Profits Average Q/ AR ISM-Manufacturing Index Average Index New and Existing Home Sales Average, Thousands 5,192 4,059 4,629 5,490 Real Oil Prices - West Texas Intermediate Average $/ bbl (2016 prices) PCE Inflation Average Y/ Y% Change Fed Funds Rate Average % Notes: 1 January 2008 through June Beginning in July 2009 for monthly data or 2009:Q3 for quarterly data 3 Latest month or quarter

39 Vehicle sales are anticipated to edge lower over the next two years Vehicle sales millions of units Blue Chip Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Actual Forecast '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

40 Summary The outlook is for the U.S. economy to expand at a pace around trend through 2019 Employment is expected to rise moderately with the unemployment rate remaining very low Inflation is forecast rise to the Fed s Inflation target next year Vehicle sales are anticipated to edge lower through 2018 Long-term outlook for vehicle production remains very positive

41